Risk Assessment Flashcards
Definition of Risk
Hazard for adverse event(s) that is incompletely understood (Hart, 1998)
Likelihood of an unwanted outcome
Viewed as a range (Steadman, 2000)
Probabilities change across time
Interaction between characteristics & situation
What is Risk Assessment?
And the goals of each
2 components:
Prediction: probability that an individual will commit future violent crimes or acts- Goal is to Identify risk factors
Management: Describes the development of interventions to manage or reduce the likelihood of future violence. Goal is to identify treatment
Goals of Risk Assessment
1. Identify the risk(s) of what to whom how soon how likely how serious given what scenario
- Specify the intervention(s)
level of supervision / monitoring
treatment
education
Civil contexts that require risk assessment
Civil commitment:
Mental health professional assesses risk of harm
Child protection:
Government protection agencies assess risk of child maltreatment
Immigration:
Laws prohibit admission if reasons to believe threat
School and labour:
Provisions to prevent any act that would endanger others
Criminal Settings for risk assessment
Assessment of risk occurs at:
Pretrial
Sentencing
Release stages
Examples
Sentencing decisions involving dangerous and long-term offenders
Review Board decision-making
Parole Board determinations
Types of prediction outcomes
True positive: Predicted violent behaviour- engages in
True Negative: Predicted to NOT engage in violent behaviour- does not
False Positive: Predicted violent- is not
False Negative: Predicted not- engages in violent acts
False positive errors:
affects offender
False negative errors:
affects society
Base Rates
Definition:
% of people within a given population who commit a criminal or violent act
Why do base rates matter?
Prediction difficult when base rates are too high or low
False positives tend to occur with low base rates
Easier to predict frequent events
Means of Reducing Bias
Education
Professional training;
-Community-level intervention
Increase evidence basis
-Information from a variety of sources, including perpetrators, partners, collateral informants, and existing records
Increase decision structure
-Reduces reliance on heuristics(shortcuts)
-increases access to “low availability” information
Increases judgment quality and consistency
Methods of Risk Assessments & definitions
1.) Unstructured clinical judgement: Decisions characterized by a substantial amount of professional discretion and lack of guideline
- ) Structured professional judgement: Decisions are guided by a predetermined list of risk factors that have been selected from the research and professional literature.
- Judgement of risk level is based on evaluators professional judgement
3.) Structured Actuarial: Estimates risk based on statistical formulas or decision-making trees
Risk Factors:definition
Definition
Measurable features of an individual that predicts (adverse) outcome of interest
2 main types of risk factors:
Static: Risk factor that does not fluctuate over time and is not changed by treatment
Dynamic: Risk factors that fluctuate over time and are amenable to change
Categories of Risk Factors
4 categories: Dispositional Historical Clinical Contextual
Dispositional Risk Factors
Person’s traits, tendencies, or style
Examples:
Demographics
-Age – of 1st offence
Personality characteristics
- Impulsivity
- Psychopathy
Historical Risk Factors
Events experienced in past
Examples:
Past behaviour
Age of onset (males)
Childhood history of maltreatment (not sexual)
Past supervision failure
Past escape
Institution maladjustment
Clinical Risk Factors
Symptoms of mental disorders that can contribute to violence
Examples: Substance use Major psychoses “Threat Control Override” symptoms Affect / mood
