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Veterinary Epidemiology > Risk Assessment > Flashcards

Risk Assessment Flashcards

1
Q

What 3 characteristics make up risk?

A
  1. EVENT - what can go wrong
  2. PROBABILITY - how likely is it
  3. CONSEQUENCE - how big is the impact
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2
Q

What are the 3 purposes of risk analysis?

A
  1. attempts to arrive at a rational, scientifically-based argument that helps the risk manager determine how best to address the identified risks
  2. provides an informative assessment of probability, not just “possible” situations
  3. provide opportunities which otherwise would have been forgotten to take risks for things we would like to have
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3
Q

Why can the risk of a certain situation differ?

A

depends on who’s assessing the risk

  • country receiving vs. exporting
  • different interests of each party
  • stakeholders
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4
Q

What did the Uruguay Round in 1994 do?

A

transformed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) into the World Trade Organization (WTO)

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5
Q

What is the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement?

A

recognizes the right of countries to protect human, animal, or plant life and health

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6
Q

When should SPS measures be avoided?

A

when used as unjustified (technical) barriers to trade without scientific evidence

  • must justifiably protect people, animals, and plants
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7
Q

What is the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH, formerly OIE)? What does it provide to countries?

A

organization responsible for setting international standards for animal health and zoonosis

provides importing countries with objective, transparent, and defensible methods of assessing the disease risks associated with importation of animals and animal products

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8
Q

What are the 5 principles of risk analysis in trade?

A
  1. zero risk is incompatible with active trade
  2. a country is free to determine its own appropriate level of protection (ALOP)
  3. the process should be transparent
  4. restrictions must e supported by science and consistent with the country’s ALOP
  5. clarification of differences an be references by a neutral organization (WOAH)
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9
Q

What is appropriate level of protection (ALOP)?

A

level of protection deemed appropriate by the member establishing SPS measures to protect human, animal, or plant life or health within its territory (must be justified!)

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10
Q

In what 3 situations are countries allowed to set ALOP?

A
  1. SPS agreement is only applied to the extent to protect life or health
  2. based on scientific principles and not maintained without sufficient scientific evidence (except in emergency or provisional measures)
  3. doesn’t unjustifiably discriminate between national and foreign or among foreign sources of supply
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11
Q

Criteria for validity of sanitary measures:

A
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12
Q

What organizations set up the Codex Alimentarius Commission? What goals does it set? What does it provide?

A

FAO and WHO

concerning food - protects the health of consumers, facilitates international food trade, ensures fair practice in the international food trade

series of guidelines on food safety risk analysis

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13
Q

What guidelines does WOAH create? What are the 4 major subjects?

A

animal and aquatic import risk analysis guidelines

  1. hazard identification
  2. risk assessment
  3. risk management
  4. risk communication
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14
Q

How does WOAH take part in hazard identification?

A

sets up and keeps track of a list of any pathogenic agents that could produce adverse consequences

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15
Q

What are the 3 components of WOAH’s risk assessment step of their import risk analysis? What do all 3 result in?

A
  1. release assessment (entering) - estimates the likelihood of the imported commodity being infected/contaminated
  2. exposure assessment (establishing) - describes the biological pathways necessary for exposure of animals and humans
  3. consequence assessment (spreading) - estimates the likelihood of potential consequences

risk estimation - compiles results from all of the above and calculates if the estimated risk is non-negligible (actual hazard)

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16
Q

What 3 factors need to be considered for release and exposure assessment? What country is considered?

A
  1. biological - transmission pathways, risk factors, susceptible population
  2. country - veterinary surveillance, disease prevelance, animal demographics, geographical and environmental characteristics
  3. commodity - ease of contamination, relevant processes and production methods, effect of processing, storage, and transport, quantity
  • RELEASE = exporting country
  • EXPOSURE = importing country
17
Q

What are the 2 types of consequences considered in consequence assessment? What country is this considered for?

A
  1. DIRECT (in the animal) - morbidity, mortality, production losses, animal welfare
  2. INDIRECT - costs of control and eradication or surveillance, trade losses, environmental amenity values, social, cultural, and esthetic conditions
18
Q

What questions does the risk assessment try to answer?

A
  • What can go wrong (hazard)?
  • How can it happen (drivers)?
  • How likely is it (probability)?
  • How bad can it be (impact)?
  • Would the practical collection of further data alter a decision?
  • Would the incorrectness of any assumption change the management decision, and if so can we test it?
  • How much would the action(s) or interactions(s) cos and to whom?
19
Q

What is the purpose of risk management? When is it used?

A

following a non-negligible calculation upon risk assessment, it provides justified sanitary measurements that could manage risks posed by the hazard associated with the commodity

if there is a reasoned relationship between the measures chosen and the risk assessment —> results of risk assessment support the measure

20
Q

What answers does risk management try to answer?

A
  • What specific questions do we want the risk assessment to answer?
  • What assessment assumptions are we willing to accept?
  • What can be done to reduce the impact of unwanted events?
  • What can be done to reduce the likelihood of unwanted events?
  • What are the trade-offs involved amon the risk management options?
  • Who bears the cost of action and inaction?
  • Which is the best option?
21
Q

What is precautionary principle? When is this approach adopted?

A

taking an action believing, without proof, it will protect against a significant proof

sufficient uncertainty

22
Q

How does risk affect protective action?

A

greater risk = less evidence required before taking protective action

  • incredibly dangerous and there is no scientific data, but the consequences are extremely dire
23
Q

When is precautionary principle most commonly justifiable? What is done during the protective measures?

A

when data or scientific knowledge is not available to adequately assess risk

block transport/export while collecting information and doing research

24
Q

When is risk communication put in place? What information is used?

A

at the start of each risk analysis

information and opinions regarding hazards and risks gathered from stakeholders, importing/exporting countries, and domestic and foreign industry groups that is open, interactive, iterative, and transparent (+ peer reviewed!)

25
Q

What answers does risk communication try to answer?

A
  • With whom do you communicate?
  • What are their agendas?
  • What do people know about the risks and how? What do they want to know?
  • How do you get both the information you need and the information other have?
  • How and when do they convey the information you want to communicate?
26
Q

What are the 2 major approaches of risk estimation? What is it?

A
  1. quantitative - best, measurable
  2. qualitative - not a lot of data

objective, repeatable, and documented assessment of the risk posed by a particular course of action, bringing information into the open and encouraging dialog to improve public confidence

27
Q

What is necessary for risk estimation? What are 2 reasons this is necessary?

A

model to represent the complex system being analyzed

  1. addresses the system’s main characteristics
  2. incorporates uncertainty associated with characteristics and properties of the system
28
Q

How is uncertainty incorporated in risk estimation? What should be done when evidence/data are missing?

A

select appropriate distributions and run sensitivity analyses of 2 major spectra, where reality is somewhere in the middle

pool information from expert opinions with caution ot potential bias, correlation, and issues weighing the information

29
Q

How should the language in risk estimation be?

A

PRECISE

  • What is the probability of at least one outbreak of FMD in the country per year if 2000 cattle are imported under OIE guidelines from a country with endemic FMD? = can put numbers to and make a clear estimation
  • If a group of cattle are imported, what is the risk of this group passing any infectious pathogens to indigenous livestock? = fair question, no quantitative ways to analyze
30
Q

Risk estimation, conceptual model:

A
31
Q

What are the 7 major likelihood definitions?

A
  1. negligible - virtually unlikely (10^-7 - 10^-6); one in a million, anything greater is non-negligible
  2. extremely low - extremely unlikely (10^-6 - 10^-5)
  3. very low - very unlikely to occur (10^-5 - 10^-4)
  4. low - unlikely (10^-4 - 10^-3)
  5. small - minimally likely (10^-3 - 10^-2)
  6. moderate - fairly likely (10^-2 - 10^-1)
  7. high - likely - (10^-1 - 1)
32
Q

What are the impact definitions for the 6 levels of consequences?

A
  1. negligible - insignificant cost/loss, unimportant
  2. very low - minor, less serious
  3. low - low, inferiour
  4. moderate - intermediate, serious
  5. high - severe, intensely harmful
  6. extreme - catastrophic, disastrous
33
Q

When are SPS measures needed with respect to probability of an event?

A

if the resulting hazard has a non-negligible probabilty

34
Q

What values are used to estimate the probability of an event in the risk estimation?

A
  • release probability
  • exposure probability

linear response

35
Q

What values are used to estimate the overall risk estimate? How does this compare to probability alone?

A
  • probability (release/export vs exposure/import)
  • consequences

considers the consequence, giving it a non-linear curve where SPS measures need to be put in place with extreme consequences, even if there is a negligible probability due to the possible devastating results

Veterinary Epidemiology (13 decks)

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