Risk and Uncertainty Flashcards
Challenges to Engineers
Risk
Uncertainty
Hazard
Uncertainty in in formation
Not Available Lost Coming Soon Uncertain Vague Out of Date Irrlevant
Knowledge Management Transfer Exchange
Data —> Information —-> Knowledge
Definition of Risk
The possibility of a (negative) event occuring
Definition of Hazard
Something which may cause injury, loss or damage.
Definition of Consequence
Often viewed as Hazard x Risk
What is Qualitative Risk Analysis
Qualitative risk assessment is based on a representative selection of specific examples for comparison with standards and relevant good practice.
Give examples of Qualitative Risk Analysis
Brainstorming Risk Register (word descriptions) Risk Matrix (with or without mitigation / maybe semi - quantitative
What is Quantitative Risk Analysis?
This technique uses a mathematical model that provides a distribution of the likely hood and impact of the project risk. The most common tool for this is a Monte Carlo simulation, which provides a score range which can then be used to further develop mitigation strategies to further manage the project risk. It is important to note, this technique requires a lot more data in order to produce accurate results, but when used correctly can be a very powerful tool.
Examples of Quantitative Risk Analysis processes
Tornado Diagram Sensitivity Analysis Spider Diagram Probability Trees, Decision Tess (Normally based on Computer simulations examples) Monte Carlo Process
Define:-
HAZID
HAZAN
HAZOP
HAZID - Hazard Identification
HAZAN - Hazard Analysis
HAZOP - Hazard Operational Study
Risk management is best viewed as three
distinct stages, what are they?
1. Risk identification: involves the identification of the risks that may be encountered on a project or process. 2. Risk analysis: involves the assessment and analysis of the risks identified. 3. Risk response: This is concerned with the action taken in response to risks identified and analyzed
During Risk Management what would be done during Risk Identification phase?
A number of techniques can be used for risk
identification. These include:
• Brainstorming where ideas are chewed over and
refined in a semi-structured group discussion led
by someone with a good knowledge of the
technique.
• Standard checklists of potential risks can also be
employed to see which (if any) are likely to be
relevant to the task or project in question.
• Structured interview meetings with a qualified
professional and risk audit interviews with key
staff could also be used.
Physical inspections
• Surveys, questionnaire
• Failure analysis
• Scenario analysis
• Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and
threats (SWOT) analysis
• Systems analysis techniques
• Work breakdown structure analysis.
During Risk Management what would be done during Risk Analysis phase?
Risk analysis can be quantitative or qualitative depending
on the nature and/or amount of information available.
• Indeed there may be so little information about certain
risks that no analysis is possible!
• A quantitative analysis usually involves the use of
mathematical modelling to establish the range of values
that the risk variable can take.
• A qualitative assessment involves the identification of a
hierarchy of risks, their scope, factors that cause them to
occur and potential dependencies. The hierarchy is based
on the probability of the event and the impact on the
project.
During Risk Management what would be done during Risk Response phase?
Having computed the impact of a particular risk
affecting the project or the task under
consideration, the action to be taken needs to be
addressed. The following types of response can be
made:
• Reduce (or avoid if possible) the risk.
• Insure against the risk.
• Transfer all or part of the risk to another party.
• Retain all or part of the risk.
Risk assessment requires planning and organisation
and the main steps involve:
Identification of relevant legislation
• Establishment of risk acceptance criteria
• Definition of the purpose and objectives of the
risk assessment
• What type of risks should be studied?
• Which phases of the life cycle should be studied?
• Undertake the risk assessments.
Assessment methods can be broken down
into 3 areas:
• Methods to identify sources of accidents and the way in which they may occur; • Methods to estimate potential consequences; • Methods to estimate the likelihood of occurrence.
Why is the hazard identification stage is the most
important and critical in all risk
assessments.
If the existence of a hazard is not identified then no action can be taken for its control or mitigation.
Name /describe 2 types of Hazard Identification Methods
Comparative Methods - Mostly coming from experiences
Fundamental Methods - What is type questions
HAZID Points
- What is the potential incident(s) that might occur as a
result of this hazard? - What will be the effect on people and the facility?
- Is the hazard likely to damage any safety functions such
as escape routes? - Are there any aggravating factors that might make things
worse? - What best describes the hazard classification in terms of
its effect on people and the facility? - Are there any mitigating features that will reduce the
effects of the hazard? - Are there any measures in place to prevent the hazard
occurring or to protect people and the facility if it does
occur?
Safety Case Arguments are?
The type of reasoned argument which can be put forward in Safety Cases to demonstrate adequate prevention, control and mitigation of major hazards can include the following.
List some prevention options
• Design procedures;
• Engineering and construction standards;
• Quality assurance
• Formal inspection;
• Maintenance;
• Process control, including software and
operational procedures.
List Some examples Control Options
• Ventilation; • Fire, smoke and gas detection; • Emergency shut down systems, manual or automatic; • Pressure relief systems; • Depressurisation / blowdown / venting of gas; • Liquid dumping; • Ignition control; • Fire protection; passive and active.
List some examples of Mitigation Options
• Alarm systems; • Public address/communication systems; • Temporary safe refuge; • Escape and evacuation; • Passive fire protection; • Active fire protection; to reduce heat flux levels.
