Rising Powers Flashcards
BRICS
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
China paradox
- wealthy but low GDP
Global power shifts
- relative importance of the west decreasing rapidly (by 2050 GDP of E7 double the size of G7)
- global power shift are uneven and not everything changes
- 5 out of 10 largest economies worldwide are from the west
- GDP per capita remains much higher in the EU, USA, Japan
- USA still leading on military and digital spheres
Global order - Liberal International Order
- originates in post WWII era and reflects
1. Political liberalism- liberal democratic polity, human equality (freedom, rule of law, HR)
- Economic liberalism
- free movement of goods and capital
- Liberal internationalism
- rules-based multilateralism, collective security, authority beyond nation state
- liberal democratic polity, human equality (freedom, rule of law, HR)
- tensions with Westphalian values of sovereignty and noninterference
- values are not necessarily western (Latin American states paved the way for universal HR etc)
- but favours western representation (especially US) -> formal and informal privileges in decision-making in international organisations (eg IMF or World Bank)
3 theoretical perspectives how the global power shifts affect LIO
- Confrontation
- LIO bound to fail
- great power competition
- Mearsheimer - Integration
- rising powers integrate into the LIO bcs of its benefits
- Ikenberry - Alternative orders
- rising powers create parallel institutions/orders
- alternative values such as non-intervention, development
- Hurrel
- not final verdict - scholars disagree but agree on
- rising powers are not homogenous group and behave differently towards LIO
- LIO is increasingly contested (also from within) and more fragile
CONFRONTATION - realist perspective
- state-centred vs market-centred economies
- authoritarian vs democratic political systems
- authoritarian rising powers (Russia, China) reject liberal values
- UA war + Crimea
- HR + free press
- no overt military conflict but risk increases
- eg South China Sea, Crimea, Taiwan
- “trade wars” between USA and China, confrontation at WTO
Confrontation - case of China (what drives confrontation?)
Political liberalism
- does not promote individual political rights (including minorities), undermines NGOs/civil society organisations
Economic liberalism
- emphasises the role of the state over private firms (industry sector specifically) + central role of Chinese Communist Party
Liberal internationalism
- preference of Rule by Law over Rule of Law + cautious to delegate authority to international organisations
Critique of confrontation
- increase in power doesn’t necessarily lead to confrontation (and balance of power) because domestic politics matter
- democratic rising powers are less threatening (eg USA and EU seek closer ties with India)
INTEGRATION - liberal perspective
- rising powers do not seek to overthrow LIO
- they are active participants in multilateral institutions (UN institutions, UN peacekeeping missions + China joined WTO)
- G7 -> G20
- limits to integration
- reaching a consensus has become more difficult in many int organisations (eg UNSC)
Critique of integration
Even if rising powers benefit from LIO they are dissatisfied with a lack of equal representation
Integration - case of China (WTO)
- joined WTO which may be seen as a step towards integration
- but China selectively contests parts of WTO’s liberal trade order where:
- (sectors) China’s economy is state-led rather than market-led
- WTO’s liberal rules are more “intrusive”
- WTO often dysfunctional because of US-China conflict over trade rules
Threats to LIO form within
- rise of antiglobalisation movements, right-wing populism and nationalism (in EU and US)
- BREXIT, Trump’s retreat from multilateralism, rising anti-immigrant sentiments
- internal contradictions of LIO
- rising income inequality
- freedom of expression facilitates “post-truth” politics
- supranationalisation of multilateralism creates backlash
ALTERNATIVE ORDERS
- rising powers create their own multilateral/regional institutions outside LIO
- non-western organisations established on e.g. security, economy, finance
- greater representation of rising powers
- less interventionist than LIO institutions (with exceptions)
Examples:
- rising powers promote new informal governance formats
- G7 -> BRICS summits since 2009
- BRICS expansion in 2023 (5 new members)
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Alternative orders - China’s case (BRI)
- China aims to built a global infrastructure network
- government-to-government deals
- no multilateral governance involved
- little transparency
Critique of alternative orders
Rising powers know what they don’t want (continued hegemony of the west) but fail to present attractive alternative replacements
