Rest of it Flashcards
Choosing the VP candidate
until 1980 VP candidate chosen & announced during NPC
until 1956
convention delegates chose the VP
1960-80 - pres made choice announced during convention
1984 - Walter Mondale - announced Geraldine Ferraro - as VP 4 days before D convention
not until 1996 R joined
pre-convention bandwagon
2012 - Romney announced Paul Ryan 16 days before convention
Strategies for choosing VP candidates
Balanced Ticket balanced in terms of geographic region political experience gender, race Obama & Biden 47 & 65 Race - senate 36 years Obama 4 Chairman of foreign relations committee Increase voter appeal
George Bush - Dick Cheney Bush - no washington experience Cheney WH chief of staff to Pres Ford Secretary defence to HW Bush Rose to chief R whip in House of R
Party unity rarely adopted - choose former primary rival Reagan - George HW Bush bitter personal battle Reagan re-united party
National Party Conventions
4th stage in pres election process
usually Aug / Early Sep
3/4 days
Traditional for challenging party to go first
2016
Repub - 18 Jul 2016 – 21 Jul 2016 -Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.
Democrat-25 Jul 2016 – 28 Jul 2016- Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Attended by delegates
Chosen in P&Cs
Each day - theme & prime time speaker
2012 - NPCs ran for 3 days instead of 4 - declining importance?
Formal functions of NPCs
1. Choosing the party’s pres candidate
Traditionally set out to perform 3 functions:
1. Choosing the party’s pres candidate
roll call vote
each states delegates announce which C they wish to vote for
Before reform - delegates would decide in convention hall
Now - come as committed delegates to vote particular way
No. of committed delegates is known beforehand - decided in P&Cs
result of convention - foregone conclusion
To win nomination - candidate must receive absolute majority
Democrat NPC
Clinton - 2842 delegate votes
Sanders - 1865
NPCs ‘confirm’ rather than chooses the partys C
Not since 1976 had pres candidate choice been in any doubt - Pres G Ford defeated Reagan
100 votes in it
No candidate gains an absolute majority
delegates - free agents - no longer committed to vote for specific candidate
1896-1952 - 8 occasions
1952-2016 - hasnt happened - this function performed by primaries - not NPCs
Diminishing importance?
Formal Functions of NPCs
Choosing partys VP candidate
Conventions role in choosing VP
lost in last 3 decades
NO longer the forum for the announcement
last 1988 - Republican NPC
Formal Functions of NPCs
Deciding the party platform
doc containing policies that the candidate intends to pursue if elected pres
put together by the Platform Committee
under direction of the party’s national committee
PC holds hearings around the country during first 6 months of election year
2008 - D- held more than 1,600 ‘listening sessions’ in communities across al 50 states
30,000 ppts
R - invited visitors to their website ‘share your thoughts’
usually signif difference on certain policies
2012 - R - unborn child right to life
D - support Roe v Wade
Womens Rights
Informal Functions NPCs
Promoting Party Unity
Promoting Party Unity primaries - bitter personal battles Vital internal party wounds are healed divided party wont win 2008 - Clinton & Obama bitter personal rivalry
BILL & HILARY
suggested Obama did not have experience, leadership qualities to be pres
At convention - Clintons endorsed Obama ‘Barack Obama is my candidate & he must b our pres’
1992 - Bush remained at loggerheads w Buchanan
1980 - carter & kenney - rivalry
Both defeated
Informal Functions NPCs
Enthusing the party faithful
vital party faithful is committed & enthusiastic to fight for C in 9 week campaign
Enthuse party faithful through speeches and appearances
2012 - inspirational speech Bill Clinton
Enthusing ordinary voters
through TV
golden opp - pres candidate delivers his acceptance speech
many voters - little attention to primaries - candidates selected & policies finalised
voters have first serious look at party
Opinion polls immediate effect of the conventions
the increase in a candidates poll rating as compared w the last pre-convention poll = bounce
1972-2008
average bounce for challenging party - just over 6%
WH party just under 6%
Trump called his bounce “the biggest bump in the history of conventions,” - not true - highest was 6 while other polls showed no change or a nominal Trump boost.
Clinton - 7 points in her best poll
post convention bounce declining
partisan nature of modern day politics in USA
highly partisan climate
clear majority of voters hold such polarised views - unlikely to change their voting intentions as a result of a speech
Importance of post-convention bounce - exaggerated
Only signal eventual outcome half the time
‘flipping a coin could be about as predictive’
The importance of modern day conventions
Washington Post Poll 2008 How important will NPCs be in deciding your vote in NOV 29% important 71% less important 12% extremely important
political commentators - comparison to years ago
modern day little importance
Devoid of political content
2016 - Demi Lovato sung at Dem NPC
Chloe grace moretz speech
TV coverage decline
1968 46 hours coverage R convention
2012 9 hours of R convention
1 hour each evening on each channel - ABC, CBS ,NBC
BUT 2008 more people watched convention speeches by Obama, John Mccain & Sarah Palin than Olympic opening ceremony , finale of American Idol or Oscars
NPC still important
Identify rising stars
2004 - Senator Illanois
Impressive keynote address
Obama
NPCs ‘ a good half of the public is just about to start paying attention’ Professor Cal Jillson Aug 2012
The General Election Campaign
contest up to this point
intra party contest
Now inter party contest
9 week campaign
Sep - First week Nov
Campaign Finance
Federal Election Campaign Act 1974
After watergate
signif changes hoping to reduce candidates reliance on a few wealthy donors ‘fat cats’
& equalise money spent on both parties
1976 - Buckley v Valeo
Limitations on what individuals/ political action committees (PACS) could spend on supporting / opposing a candidate infringed 1st Amend - unconst
1979 - congress weakened law
by allowing party to raise money for aspects e.g. voter registration & get out and vote dries - ‘soft money’ - regarded as out of control
Bi-partisan Campaign Reform Act
McCain - Feingolf law
2008 - Obama through internet by small donors
became first candidate to forgo federal matching funds worth $84 million
Obama $150 mill sep alone
McCain took funds - limited himself
2012 - neither Obama / Romney took federal matching funds
era of matching funds seemed to be over
Super PACs
Fundraising committees permitted to receive unlimited contributions and make unlimited expenditures aimed at either electing or defeating candidates in federal elections
Citizens United V Federal Election Commission
granted corporate & labour organisations the same right of unlimited independent political expenditure
led to setting up of independent expenditure only committees - super PACs
positive consequence of deregulation that provides an important outlet for : political speech, advocating independent calls for the election, defeat of specified candidates
Opponents - outlet for unlimited money in electoral campaigns - whilst independent - are merely functional extensions of campaigns
Restore Our Future 2012
146.2 million - Mitt Romney
88.5 mill advocating defeat of Obama
14 mill election of Romney
2016 election
$1,060,490,102 total spent by super PACs
NRA - $35,157,585 for TRUMP
Worrying trend towards negative campaigning
Role of Television
OLD TV - terrestrial - ABC, NBC
NEW - cable - CNN
News - most gain knowledge report on days events w small amount of analysis / comment
Political comment programmes
Sunday morning talk shows on terrestrial
Meet the Press & The News Hour PBS
Chat shows - Larry King Live ended 2010
aimed at less politically aware audience
phone in - viewers ask Qs
Oprah - endorsed Obama
Gore & Bush appeared on Oprah
