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Politics GOV3A > Primaries & Caucuses > Flashcards

Primaries & Caucuses Flashcards

1
Q

Presidential Elections

A

4 years
1st 1788
Tues after the first Monday in Nov
2nd-8th

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2
Q

7 Stage Process

A
  1. Invisible Primary
  2. Primaries & Caucuses
  3. Choosing vice p candidate
  4. NPC
  5. Campaign
  6. Election Day
  7. Electoral College
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3
Q

Requirements for Pres Candidate

A

Constitutional Requirements:

  1. Natural born US citizen
  2. At least 35 - youngest JFK
  3. Residency qualification - 14 years

1951 - const amended
limit pres to 2 terms in office

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4
Q

Previous political experience

A

Dwight Eisenhower - ww2 general
Donald Trump - businessman

normally from 3 groups - VP, State Governor, Senator

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5
Q

Major party endorsement

A

Vital that candidate for pres is from one of 2 main parties
Eisenhower had to become repub
3rd party - Pat Buchanan (2000) no white house

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6
Q

Personal characteristics

A

Mostly white male candidates until 2004
2008 Democrat race - Clinton & Obama

Jan 2013
20/100 Senators = women
1/100 = African American
only 6 states had women governors

All VPs = white males

Married - only 1 bachelor Pres - James Buchanan 1857

Suggested up until 1992 that martial affairs could rule out candidates
Gray Hart - pulled out - yacht photos
BUT Clinton secured nom despite allegations
So did Trump

Divorce - not problem - Reagan - 2nd Wife
Trump on 3rd

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7
Q

MONEY

A 
Crucial to raise lots of money 
Campaigns - expensive 
few can finance own 
Trump - $66 million of own money 
Other billionaire candidates - Ross Perot 
Steve Forbes

Obama - 125.2 Million 2011
Romney 56.1 million

first 3 months of 2012
Obama raised further 66.4 million
Romney only 30.2 million

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8
Q

Effective Organisation

A

Major parties cant endorse specific candidates - running to become the R/D candidate
Must create own organisation

Obama - superior organisation to Clinton 2008

Romney - impressive victory in Florida primary 2012
superior fundraising & organisation compared to main rivals

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9
Q

Oratorical Skills & Telegenic

A

MEDIA AGE
Speak well & Look good

‘I’m no good at television’ Walter Mondale 1984

Repub senator Phil Gramm ‘Im too ugly to be president’

Reagan - Hollywood
Clinton - oratorical skills & telegenic looks - advantages
& Obama - charming

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10
Q

Sound & Relevant policies

A

Danger that pres elections portrayed all style no substance

major one big issue

Clinton ‘Its the economy, stupid!’
Trump ‘Build a wall”

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11
Q

Invisible Primary

A

Period between candidates declaring an intention to run for president and then first contests of the primary season

CRITICAL - for candidate to gain name recognition & money & put together organisation

Mainly in media

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12
Q

Candidates formal announcement

A

Obama announced 4th April 2011

support shown in opinion polls

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13
Q

Formal Events

A

Not all the invisible primary is invisible

5th May 2011 - end of year
16 TV debates between R candidates

10th Debate - Rick Perry Gov Texas
‘memory loss’ about departments needed to be shut down
ended pres bid in NH primary w less than 1% of vote

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14
Q

Special Events

A

Iowa Straw Poll
began 1979
Did not occur 2016
Only once did Straw poll winner become candidate

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15
Q

Traditional Jefferson - Jackson Dinner

A

Democrat
Opportunity for speeches
NOV
Impressive speech 2007 - Obama - helped propel to victory

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16
Q

BOOKS

A

Obama - Dreams of My Father
The Audacity of Hope - coincide w launch of 2008 bid

2010- Mitt Romney No Apology: The case for American Greatness

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17
Q

Fundraising

A

Invis Primary
period where fundraising has to occur

Romney - out raised R rivals

18
Q

Front Runners

A

Important to end invis primary as front runner according to opinion polls
usually confirmed as nominee

Not the case USA Today Poll
Clinton 15% lead over Obama

2012 - Romney - early front runner - got nomination

19
Q

Primary

A

Election to choose a party’s candidate for an elective office
Few states hold Caucuses
meeting for the selection of a partys candidate
Usually geographically large but thinly populated
Iowa, North Dakota, Nevada

2016 - 12 states held Caucuses
turnout generally lower - those who do turnout - generally more ideological than primary

2012 - Ron Paul - libertarian wing of party - stronger showings in caucus system
36% Maine
28% North Dakota

20
Q

Presidential Primary

A

state based election to choose a partys candidate for the presidency. shows support for a candidate among ordinary voters & chooses delegates committed to vote for that candidate at the NPC

21
Q

Presidential Caucuses

A

State based series of meetings for the selection of a partys candidate for the presidency
Held in a few geographically large but thinly populated states, unrepresentative & low turnout

22
Q

Functions of primaries

A
  1. To show the popularity of presidential candidate

2. To choose delegates

23
Q

Timing of primaries

A

National parties usually lay down earliest & latest dates
Mid Jan - Early June

2012 - Repub National Committee rules for selection of delegates stated only Iowa, NH & South Dakota could hold their delegate selection contests in Feb
Arizona & Michigan organised for FEB
- RNC stripped them of half their NC delegates

Some hold on days when no other primary are being held - give it prominence

24
Q

Super Tuesday

A

First 1988
10 states arranged their Repub primaries together
attempt to increase their importance in the candidate selection process
2008 - 22 Democrat
21 republican
5th Feb

25
Q

Super Tues Definition

A

Early feb when a number of states coincide their presidential primaries in order to try and gain influence for their region in the selection of major party pres candidates

belief that earlier primaries have more influence over candidate selection
Front loading

inc in recent years

primaries before march
11 1980
42 2008

26
Q

Types of primaries

A

Closed - only registered party members can vote
Open Primary - any registered voter can vote in primary of either party
Cross over voting - D voters can opt to ppt in R primaries vice versa
2008 - signif number of R voted for Obama

27
Q

Modified Primaries

A

only registered party voters can vote
also allow those who have registered independent to vote in either partys primary

proportional primaries - candidates awarded delegates in proportion to the votes they get

28
Q

Threshold

A

minimum % of votes than a candidate must receive to get any of that states delegates
usually 15% of vote

ALL D & most R = proportional
some R = winner takes all primaries
Whoever gets most voters wins all states delegates

29
Q

Winner takes all primaries 2016

A

There are only eight contests that are truly winner-take-all, and they’re all on the Republican side.
Florida, Ohio, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota, Arizona, Nebraska and Delaware.

30
Q

IOWA CAUCUS

A

Hold first caucus
2008 - Obama won - became cover story of Newsweek Jan
Before Iowa - behind Clinton in polls - came back in lead
Usually low turnout
2016 - 15.7%
Republican - Ted Cruz won
Democrat - CLINTON won

31
Q

New Hampshire Primary

A

Trump won NH primary
Clinton, Bush, Obama did not

Critical contest to win
Clinton came second claimed ‘come back kid’

32
Q

Incumbent President & Primaries

A

when incumbent runs
primary for pres party go on w little / no coverage
some states do not bother

usually renominated without any serious opposition

Obama embarrassment 2012 to receive less than 90% of primary vote in 14 states

1976, 1980, 1992
Incumbent signif opposition from own party
1976 - Ford faced Reagan
1980 - Carter faced Senator Edward Kenney
1992 - Bush v Buchanan
All lost in general election - a strong primary challenge - damaged goods even before he faces his real opponent

criticism made of pres from within own party in primaries - often recycled as damaging campaign material by opponent later in the year

important for incumbent not to face any serious opposition in primaries

33
Q

Voter Turnout in primaries

A

since reforms of the nomination process in 1960s
ppt in primaries had greatly increased

1968 12 million ppt
11% of electorate

1988 35 mill
21%

2008 58 million
30%

Individual contests varies
53% NH
17% Louisiana

34
Q

Factors affecting turnout in primaries

A

Stephen Wayne
found better educated, higher income & old
more likely to vote

Type of primary - open - more likely to attract higher turnout

How competitive the race is
2008 - Missouri - 825,000 turned out
Clinton V Obama
Lasted until June 37 million voters

2012 - 72,000 - virtually unchallenged

Whether nomination has yet been decided - early primaries attract more
by April 2012 - most candidates dropped out race
Romney presumed nominee

lowest turnouts - where incumbent has been unchallenged
1996 Clinton
2012 Obama

Reagan 1984
Bush 2004

35
Q

The increased importance of primaries

A

Nowadays - only route to becoming pres nominee for major party = primary

Not always the case - 50s&60s most states did not hold primaries - used series of state party conventions - only certain members could vote
‘smoke filled rooms’ - decisions made by party bosses

1968 - in neither party did overall winner of primaries get his party’s nomination
undemocratic, elitist, non-participatory & potentially corrupt

McGovern- Fraser Commission - recommended reforms of pres nomination process
led to signif no. of states holding pres primaries from 1972 onwards

36
Q

Strengths of Current Nomination Process

A

Increased level of ppt by ordinary voters
1968 - 11%
1988- 21%
2008- 30%

Increased choice of candidates - 1968 D- 3 R- 5

2016 - R - 17
D- 6

Open to outsiders do not initially have a national reputation
Jimmy Carter
Bill Clinton
Barack Obama

No power for party bosses - lessening opp for corruption makes more democratic

37
Q

Weaknesses of current nominating process

A

David Broder - Washington Post - ‘Any way you look at it, this is madness’

NY times ‘ a crazy process’

Widespread voter apathy and boredom 
Although it had improved 
incumbency year - turnout around 17% 
2008 - competitive race - 30% 
2016 - 28.5%

Voters - unrepresentative of population
tend to be older, better educated, wealthier & maybe more ideological than whole voting population
More ideological candidates do better - 2012 Ron Paul - libertarian repub won at least 10% of votes in 40 P+Cs

Process is too long
1960 JFK announced candidacy 66 days before first primary
2008 Obama 332 days

BUT not as long when incumbent pres seeking re-election
Romney announced 222 days 2012

Process is v expensive 
Raise large amounts of money 
start campaign early 
longer & more expensive 
'front loading' little time to raise before primaries have started 
June 2012 
O - $300 million  
R - $153 million

Process is too dominated by the media
Rely on media for info - becomes new ‘king makers’ replace ‘party bosses’
Loevey 1995 - present nominating process has become a televised horse race
TV debates - 47 televised TV debates between R&D before iowa caucus
2012 - R nomination race - polls driven almost exclusively by performance in debate
Rick Perry - forgot lines - polls dropped

All too easily developed into bitter personal battles
2000 McCain TV commercial accused Bush lying - likening Bush to Clinton
voters no confidence in disunited parties

Lack of peer review
pre reform era - chosen by other pro politicians - good idea of qualifications
BUT nowadays - ordinary voters
doesnt know about qualities - primaries tend to test campaigning qualities rather than pres qualities

38
Q

How to improve nomination process

A

mostly concerned w timings of primaries & attempt to increase the role of pro politicians w/o making it undemocratic

making states in one region all vote on same day
give greater weight to the votes of elected politicians at NPCs when choosing pres candidate

39
Q

Are primaries that important?

A

1960-2012
14 pres elections therefore 28 nominations
22/28 candidates finally chosen = the front runner before a single vote was cast
Statistics suggest not that important

BUT obama was not a front runner

40
Q

Superdelegates

A

Democratic party since 1982
Important in 2008 between Obama & Clinton
make up 15% of all delegates
free to support any candidate for the presidential nomination.

Politics GOV3A (2 decks)

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