Referendums Flashcards
1
Q
What are the consequences of a failed referendum?
A
- Increased legitimacy for hardliners which leads to further entrenchment of ethnic division
- Can demoralise peacemakers and discourage further peace initiatives
- If a referendum is unsuccessful the only way to legitimately re-address the settlement is through another referendum which clarifies public opinion; otherwise durability and legitimacy of policy-makers decisions are gone
2
Q
What do successful referendums bring?
A
- Builds trust and credible commitment across the sides
- Example: if the Turkish Cypriots vote a strong YES, it leads the Greek Cypriots to believe they are obviously committed to the change, eradicating the idea of fear presented by Lake and Rothchild
- Can be decisive in legitimising governmental decisions which can help the peace process, including: new federal borders, inclusive policing and security mechanisms and power-sharing arrangements which protect the minorities with the one-person, one-vote system
3
Q
What are things to consider before initiating a referendum?
A
- Negotiated settlements should prioritise security concerns first
- Needs of the vulnerable must be addressed if the vote is not to be swung as it could lead to more hardliners E.G. Displaced persons, victims of conflict
- Broader public must be consulted throughout the process as a settlement requires endorsement from more than one community
- Leaders must all be clearly for or against before initiation
4
Q
When do referendums usually take place?
A
- In the transition to consociational government types or federal states
5
Q
What are the design considerations?
A
- Unique designs must be considered in each separate case which policy-makers and mediators must be aware of the disadvantages and advantages of each
- Timing and preparation are paramount of the design
- Loizides argues the risks of referendums largely outweigh the potential advantages and therefore should be embraced with much caution
6
Q
Who were the actors in the Northern Ireland referendum and what was the motive?
A
- Unionists and Protestants = THE MAJORITY and REMAIN WITH BRITAIN vs. Nationalists and Republicans = THE MINORITY and JOIN WITH REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
- Territorial not religious
7
Q
What were the propositions put forward in the N. Ireland referendum?
A
- North-South ministerial which brings together Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland to discuss common interests
- A new council which would encourage policy cooperation between British and Irish governments
8
Q
What were some side incentives which pushed further for the YES vote?
A
- If the YES vote won in Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement, both Republican and Loyalist prisoners would be released
- Sinn Fein would be accommodated in inclusive power-sharing institutions with an increase to the Northern Irish Assembly to accommodate this
9
Q
What was the d’Hondt model and why did this help the voting?
A
- Arguably explains why Irish Republicans endorsed the agreement
- Why hardliners in the Unionist community failed to derail it and then chose to agree to it as they would have a higher probability of gaining seats
10
Q
Who was eligible to vote and what was the electoral design in Northern Ireland?
A
- Majority support from both Catholic and Protestant communities was considered crucial to legitimise governmental changes. A failure of these could have crippled the planned Northern Ireland Assembly
11
Q
What was the outcome of the Northern Ireland referendum result?
A
- 71% backing from N. Ireland, 95% in Republic of Ireland
12
Q
Who were the actors in the Cyprus referendum?
A
- Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots, UN, EU, Kofi Annan Plan
13
Q
What were the propositions put forward in the Cyprus referendum?
A
- Greek and Turkish Cypriots would each retain autonomy over most of their affairs in a loose federal system.
- Turk Cypriots returned land in exchange for power-sharing
- Turkish and Greek leaders did not fully follow plan and so twin referendum occurred
- UN mediation and Annan Plan
14
Q
Who was eligible to vote and what was the electoral design in Cyprus and what majority was needed?
A
- Voting rights were determined by the communities. Greek Cypriots voted in the South whilst Turkish Cypriots voted in the north. Greek Cypriots in the north were allowed to vote still whilst Turkish Cypriots in the south were not.
- DOUBLE MAJORITY NEEDED
15
Q
Who rejected and who accepted the Plan in terms of leaders in the Cyprus referendum?
A
- Cypriot President rejected the plan in a controversial televised speech whilst the Turkish Cypriot President also opposed the plan whereby he expressed that it would lead to Greek Cypriot dominance.
- Greek Premier backed and endorsed the UN plan, reportedly after pressure from US President Bush
