Reasoning and Decision Making

Question 1

Categorical Syllogisms

Answer 1

• All As are Bs
• All Bs are Cs
• Therefore all As are Cs…is this valid?

Question 2

What does inductive reasoning ask?

Answer 2

• is the conclusion possible given the premises?

Question 3

What does deductive reasoning ask?

Answer 3

• does the conclusion follow with certainty?
• we should use deductive reasoning to consider decisions

Question 4

Evans et al

Answer 4

• for each syllogism, is conclusion possibly vs necessarily true?
• use deductive reasoning
• ps typically use inductive!

Question 5

Mental Model Theory

Answer 5

• We attempt to create a mental model of a world that satisfies all of the premises.
• Then we inspect that model to determine the validity of a conclusion
• FLAW= when the first model is valid, we overlook alternatives that might not satisfy all premises
  
  • All A are B
  • all B are C
  • There for some A are C

Question 6

Real World implications of Inductive/Deductive

Answer 6

• flawed estimates of probabilities of uncertain events or outcomes (Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman)
• Dan Areilly

Question 7

Base-Rate Neglect

Answer 7

• Failing to take prior probabilities into account

Question 8

Conservatism

Answer 8

• failing to take new evidence into account
• overreliance on base rates

Question 9

Algorithms

Answer 9

• specific rule of procedure for reasoning and preoblem solving, guarenteed to return correct answer if used correctly

Question 10

Heuristics

Answer 10

• rule of thumb, mental shortcuts
  
  • fast and easy approach
  • error prone
  • cognitive economy

Question 11

Tversky and Kahnman 1974

Answer 11

• make list of common reasoning error and the heuristics that may be responsible for them

Question 12

Representativeness

Answer 12

• judging the probability of an event by deciding how representative that event appears to be of the larger group of events from which it is drawn
• ex) 5 consecutive coin tosses; which pattern is more likely?
  
  • HHHHH
  • HTHHT
• Ps choose HTHHT because randomness seems more representative
• ERROR=probabilities are identical
  
  • .5x.5x.5x.5.x.5

Question 13

Availability

Answer 13

• Judging the probability of some event on the basis of how easily examples or instances of the event can be retrieved from memory
• ex) In english language, which are there more of?
  
  1. _ _ k _ _
  2. k _ _ _ _
• people report #2 two times more
• ex) Which are you more afraid of? Flying on an airplane or driving in a car?
  
  • Ps say airplane
  • vividness effect

Question 14

Vividness Effect

Answer 14

• when rare events are actually easier to retrieve
• ex) airplane crashes, lots of news coverage

Question 15

Anchoring and Adjustment

Answer 15

• People are influenced by and inital anchor value, which may be unreliable, arbitrary, and adjustment is often insufficient
• ex) Estimate $$ value of car
  
  • A= high mileage, dependable, clean
  • B= clean, dependable, high mileage
• People tend to focus on earlier features
• ex) Ps given 5 sec to estimate value
  
  • 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8= 512
  • 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1= 2250
• correct for both= 40,320
• both conditions adjust upwards

Question 16

Hindsight Bias

Answer 16

• The tendency to view what has already happened as “obvious” even though we wouldn’t have predicted it prior to recieving outcome info
• “I knew it all along!”

Question 17

HB Study

Answer 17

• Ps read “Patient considers a new operation, chances of survival are 50/50”
• COND A= Ps informed that P chose surgery and dies
• COND B= Ps recieved no outcome info
• What would you recommend?
• COND A is told to ignore outcome info when making decision
• COND A didn’t recommend, meaning they did not ignore as told.
• COND B recomends surgery