Reasoning and Decision Making

Question 1

Logic

Answer 1

standard of assessing quality of reasoning

Question 2

Premises

Answer 2

information that provides support for conclusion

Question 3

Conclusion

Answer 3

statement claimed to follow logically from information in premises

Question 4

Modus Ponens

Answer 4

affirmation of antecedent (if) logically correct

Question 5

Modus Tollens

Answer 5

denial of consequent (then) logically correct

Question 6

Affirmation of consequent

Answer 6

agree with then - logically incorrect

just because if P then Q, doesn’t mean if Q then P

Question 7

Denial of antecedent

Answer 7

disagree with if - logically incorrect

just because first part is false doesn’t mean second part is also

Question 8

modus ponens v modus tollens

Answer 8

contains words such as ‘not’ has to search for alternatives and this is harder and takes longer

Question 9

Mental Rules Theory - 3 stages

Answer 9

1. represent underlying logical rule of argument
2. access appropriate rules
3. evaluate argument components

Question 10

Mental Models Theory - 3 stages

Answer 10

1. comprehension of premise (model construction)
2. draw conclusion based on mental models
3. search for counter-examples

Question 11

Flesh out

Answer 11

generating more complex mental representation of argument - search for counter examples (in modus tollens)

Question 12

Wason Selection Task

Answer 12

used to assess performance on conditional reasoning problems

Question 13

Confirmation bias

Answer 13

look for information that confirms beliefs, not what disapproves what we believe

Question 14

Task familiarity

Answer 14

reasoning improves due to context

Question 15

Negation

Answer 15

reasoning poorer when ‘not’ used

Question 16

Invalid Inference

Answer 16

affirmation of consequent, harder to reason about negation because need to consider alternatives

Question 17

Rationality

Answer 17

method of thought - not outcome
not the same as accuracy
consistent with or based on logic ‘good thinking’

Question 18

Bounded Rationality Theory

Answer 18

explains rationality given cognitive constraints eg. limited working memory capacity

Question 19

Reasoning considered rational if

Answer 19

violated normative standards (logic) but achieves personal goals

Question 20

System 1 Rationality

Answer 20

Goal directed rationality
rapid, automatic, pre-conscious, fast
not easy to say why you did it
influenced by beliefs not logic

Question 21

System 2 Rationality

Answer 21

Rule based rationality
adhering to logic
slow, deliberative, conscious processing

Question 22

Belief Bias Effect

Answer 22

belief will override logical reasoning

tacit: task specific and resistant to training
explicit: general and depend on practice

Question 23

Subjective Expected Utility Theory

Answer 23

how decisions should be made

s: assign different values to things
e: imagine decision outcomes and consequences
u: usefulness (value) of things

Question 24

Trade offs

Answer 24

choose option based on attributes best suited to needs given constraints

Question 25

Descriptive Invariance

Answer 25

swayed by the way information is presented to us

Question 26

Framing effect

Answer 26

loss framed tasks - more risky decisions

gain framed tasks - safe decisions

Question 27

Prospect Theory

Answer 27

prospects of decisions are not evaluated by expected momentary value but by expected subjective value