Reasoning and Decision Making Flashcards
Logic
standard of assessing quality of reasoning
Premises
information that provides support for conclusion
Conclusion
statement claimed to follow logically from information in premises
Modus Ponens
affirmation of antecedent (if) logically correct
Modus Tollens
denial of consequent (then) logically correct
Affirmation of consequent
agree with then - logically incorrect
just because if P then Q, doesn’t mean if Q then P
Denial of antecedent
disagree with if - logically incorrect
just because first part is false doesn’t mean second part is also
modus ponens v modus tollens
contains words such as ‘not’ has to search for alternatives and this is harder and takes longer
Mental Rules Theory - 3 stages
- represent underlying logical rule of argument
- access appropriate rules
- evaluate argument components
Mental Models Theory - 3 stages
- comprehension of premise (model construction)
- draw conclusion based on mental models
- search for counter-examples
Flesh out
generating more complex mental representation of argument - search for counter examples (in modus tollens)
Wason Selection Task
used to assess performance on conditional reasoning problems
Confirmation bias
look for information that confirms beliefs, not what disapproves what we believe
Task familiarity
reasoning improves due to context
Negation
reasoning poorer when ‘not’ used
Invalid Inference
affirmation of consequent, harder to reason about negation because need to consider alternatives
Rationality
method of thought - not outcome
not the same as accuracy
consistent with or based on logic ‘good thinking’
Bounded Rationality Theory
explains rationality given cognitive constraints eg. limited working memory capacity
Reasoning considered rational if
violated normative standards (logic) but achieves personal goals
System 1 Rationality
Goal directed rationality
rapid, automatic, pre-conscious, fast
not easy to say why you did it
influenced by beliefs not logic
System 2 Rationality
Rule based rationality
adhering to logic
slow, deliberative, conscious processing
Belief Bias Effect
belief will override logical reasoning
tacit: task specific and resistant to training
explicit: general and depend on practice
Subjective Expected Utility Theory
how decisions should be made
s: assign different values to things
e: imagine decision outcomes and consequences
u: usefulness (value) of things
Trade offs
choose option based on attributes best suited to needs given constraints
Descriptive Invariance
swayed by the way information is presented to us
Framing effect
loss framed tasks - more risky decisions
gain framed tasks - safe decisions
Prospect Theory
prospects of decisions are not evaluated by expected momentary value but by expected subjective value
