Real Estate Flashcards
Real estate development is important because it does the following:
real estate chap 1 - 4
Increases investment, sustains the tax base, & can serve as a catalyst to revitalize urban and rural areas
There are three basic strategic approaches to economic development: placeoriented, resident-oriented, and business-oriented approaches. Each of these approaches has proven effective at promoting economic growth, but the strategies are most effective when used in combination.
real estate - chap 1 - 4
Business-Oriented Approaches
Focus on directly assisting businesses through specific efforts in business finance, entrepreneurial and small business development, business retention and expansion, technology transfer, and business recruitment.
Place-Oriented Approaches
Focus on the community’s physical resources. Place-oriented efforts seek to improve roads and utilities, to develop employment centers, as well as transform brownfields into usable sites. They include broad and specific efforts to revitalize areas and reuse specific sites. This manual focuses on place-oriented or real estate approaches to economic development.
Resident-Oriented Approaches
Focus on helping local residents participate and advance in the workforce. Examples of resident-oriented approaches include school-to-work programs for high school students, job training classes for adults, and job placement centers.
Real estate development is the lifeblood of a community. It provides valuable jobs and sustained tax base and is controllable and responsive to community needs. Development also provides for increased investment and sustainable growth within a community. The goals and outcomes of development are compatible with economic development. These goals include:
Real estate - chap 1- 4-5
✓ Creating and retaining jobs;
✓ Attracting and creating new or expanding businesses;
✓ Enhancing the local tax base through new and higher property values;
✓ Stimulating nearby real estate improvements;
✓ Improving the appearance of a neighborhood (removal of slum and blight).
Many of the factors driving land value, commercial, and industrial development today are the same as over 200 years ago: price, location, available fmancing, & supply and demand. Land booms and busts, fraud and deception, government policy, incentives, and indust1y restructuring have always been components of real estate development and reuse. Understanding their past influences will give the economic development practitioner a better understanding of their future impacts.
Real Estate - Chap 1 - 5-6
Early trends
Several key pieces of early legislation laid the foundations of our current land system. Hoping to encourage settlement west of the Appalachian Mountains, the federal government instituted a number of pro-development initiatives in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, including establishing the basic real estate principles of land surveying and subdivision, providing for a liberal credit system, and giving away some 300 million acres of land for private ownership during the “Free Soil Movement” in 1862. These programs provided major incentives for the populace to farm land, consequently leading to tl1e development of roads, transportation systems, and towns.
Historical Perspective of Industrial Parks
Industrial parks were born as railroad companies developed or sold tl1eir vast land holdings to commercial and industrial investors. Prior to the expansion of the railroad network, most manufacturers had to be located on or near water transport in order to receive raw materials and distribute finished product via ships and barges. With connecting and spur lines in place, the manufacturing sector (with its smoke and smells) could cluster away from the downtown area. Land speculation focused on agriculture at the start of the 19th century, shifted to land speculation in cities -a major factor driving this switch was the birth of growing industrial parks.
Historical Perspective of Office Parks
The massive work of industrialization coupled with considerable rural-tourban migration created a need for office complexes separate from industrial parks and clusters. Escalating land prices in the central business districts of major cities and the introduction of the elevator led to the birth of the skyscraper. Banks, insurance companies, newspapers, corporate headquarters, retail establishments, government offices, and professional offices all wanted the prestige of being high up in a trendy skyscraper.
Major office development continued in the cities until the 1950s phenomenon of “urban flight”, where significant numbers of the middle class moved from the cities to suburbia. The suburbanization of office development ensued, as developers took advantage of cheaper land, lower construction costs, and more liberal zoning regulations (not to mention incentives from suburban cities). So popular was this office-building trend in the suburbs that from 1979 to l 989, the U.S. office market had the greatest boom in its history. However, as a result of this urban out-migration, many cities were left with a surplus of older Class B and C office, retail, and industrial space.
As stated by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the following bullet points summarize the causes of the great recession:
real estate chap 1 - 8
✓ Dependence on unstable short-term funding; ✓ Deficiencies in risk management; ✓ Over-leveraged assets; ✓ Poorly structured derivatives markets; ✓ Under-regulation of markets.
The common tenets of mixed use developments are:
real estate chap 1 - 12
✓ Inclusion of complementary office, hotel, retail, and housing spaces together;
✓ Inclusion of desired urban conveniences in a pedestrian friendly environment;
✓ Promotion of vertical versus horizontal developments;
✓ Consideration of environmental costs/ gas prices;
✓ Incorporation of multiple forms of movement into a single development, including automobiles, walking, train terminals and biking
Side Note - mixed use is a also a tenet of the triple bottomme line sustainablility trend which seeks benefts of development not just in the form of profits but also in terms of net improvements in the quality of life and environmental stress.
Entertainment Center
Acronyms
real estate chap 1 - 15
✓ CEC -Children’s Entertainment Center: Discovety Zone, Club Disney, Jeepers;
✓ EOR -Entertainment Oriented Retail: Bass Pro Shop, Barnes & Nobel, Cabela’s, Niketown, Warner Bros.;
✓ FEC -Family Entertainment Center: Fun Factory, Putting Edge, Mountasia, Regal Cinemas Funscape;
✓ LBE -Location Based Entertainment: Dave & Busters, Gameworks, IMAX, Theme Parks, Skating Rinks;
✓ UEC -Urban Entertainment Center;
✓ UED -Urban Entertainment Destination;
✓ LED -Leisure Entertainment Destination;
✓ RDE -Retail Dining Entertainment.
Types of Development and Redevelopment
There are four primary types of development and redevelopment:
real estate chap 1 - 15
✓ Build-to-suit;
✓ Speculative development;
✓ Greenfield development;
✓ Redevelopment/ reuse.
Built to Suit explained
real estate chap 1 - 15-16
In build-to-suit development, a business retains a contractor or developer to build a customized structure. Typically, the business secures long-term financing and owns and manages the building or agrees to a long-term lease with the developer/ owner. In build-to-suit development, the needs of the end-user guide the design of the facility, as opposed to anticipated real estate market needs. Because the design is specific for one tenant, it can be difficult to find businesses for a former build-to-suit property, especially if the building has a special purpose design.
Speculative Development explained
real estate chap 1 - 16
Speculative development occurs when a facility is built prior to securing a tenant. Speculative development provides a marketing tool, appealing to tenants needing space. However, the facility may not meet the client’s needs, and for communities who do it alone, the financial risks may be high. There is no guarantee that a tenant or end-user will be secured. In tight credit markets, financing is typically not available for speculative development.
Developers often refer to multi-tenant properties as a “spec project” that they hope to achieve a leasing target prior to construction. Risk can be decreased by preleasing of some of the space prior to construction. Conventional lenders typically require that a certain percentage of the space be pre-leased prior to making a loan. In slow development cycles, the credit market can change underwriting criteria to demand higher pre-leasing requirements.
Greenfield Development explained
real estate chap 1 - 16
Greenfield development takes place on large tracts of previously undeveloped land in rural and suburban areas. It provides competitively priced land to new and expanding businesses while also fostering job creation. Examples of this type of development include industrial parks, technology parks, and commercial development at highway interchanges.
Redevelopment/Reuse Development Explained
real estate chap 1 - 16
Redevelopment and reuse are processes for taking previously developed property or areas to a higher, more productive use. Specifically, redevelopment refers to new construction (with demolition if necessary) or the process to improve an area through both new construction and property reuse. Property reuse, or simply reuse, refers specifically to the renovation or rehabilitation of an existing building. This type of development encourages infill rather than sprawl, makes use of existing infrastructure, and helps to remove blight.
Potential sie issues comparison - new development vs. redevelopment
real estate chap 1 - 16
New Development: No or new infrastructure; larger parcels, need for subdivision; wetlands
Redevelopment & Reuse: Existing, older infrastructure; small fragmented parcels, need for land assembly; brownfields
Real Estate Development Process (8 in total)
Real Estate chap 1 - 17-18
✓ Predevelopment ✓ Market, financial, and political feasibility; ✓ Site and engineering analysis; ✓ Financing; ✓ Contractor negotiations and public approvals; ✓ Construction; ✓ Marketing; ✓ Building occupancy and management.
Predevelopment (step 1 Real Estate Development Process) explained:
Real Estate chap 1 - 18
The outline of the real property development process bears a strong resemblance to that of a business plan; in essence, it is a business plan for an endeavor.
During preclevelopment, the developer or business considers possible sites. Alternately, they have a site and they are considering possible building sizes and uses. In discussions with prospective tenants, owners, lenders, partners, consultants, and government staff, the developer does a “quick and dirty” analysis of the project to conceptualize potential fatal flaws. If a project looks favorable, the developer will (if they have not already clone so) secure site control.
Phase II: Market, Financial, and Political Feasibility (step 2 Real Estate Development Process) explained:
Real Estate chap 1 - 18
If the initial project evaluation is favorable and site control is complete, the developer begins the more costly feasibility analysis process. For this phase, we address tluee feasibility concerns:
✓ There must be sufficient market demand; that is, market feasibility.
✓ It must provide a sufficient return on investment; that is, financial feasibility.
✓ It must be approved by the public sector; that is, political feasibility.
Finally, market feasibility ((part of Phase II: Market, Financial, and Political Feasibility (step 2 Real Estate Development Process)) helps determine if the project will satisfy lenders enough to provide a loan.
A market analysis is intended to answer the following questions:
Real Estate chap 1 - 18
✓ What products are appropriate for this market?
✓ What will tomorrow’s customers demand?
✓ What is the appropriate timing and phasing for this project?
✓ What is the appropriate quantity and mix of uses for this project given the market?
✓ Are there financial considerations that the market alone will not bear?
✓ How can this project be best-positioned in the competitive marketplace?
While the methodologies may vary, there are five key components to any quality market study:
Real Estate chap 1 - 18
✓ Subject Site Analysis - Where is the project located, and how do its physical characteristics, including planning, zoning, access, adjacency, topography, etc. impact its overall feasibility?
✓ Economic and Demographic Analysis - What is the regional forecast for jobs and household growth, and how much of that growth may impact the market conditions for the project?
✓ Competitive Supply Analysis - What other projects will compete with this project for market share, and how competitive will this project be visa-a-vis those projects in terms of quality of execution, price, timing, positioning, etc?
✓ Demand Analysis - How deep is the overall pool of customers (residents, tenants, etc.) for this project in the marketplace? Is the demand growing or shrinking? Are the needs of the market changing over time?
✓ Development Recommendations - How do the above factors play against each other and inform recommendations as to product program, timing/ phasing, implementation strategy, prices/ rents, and product types?
Often times, a real estate project will require multiple types of financial feasibility testing to model the project on multiple dimensions. At minimum, these models and dimensions may include:
Real Estate chap 1 - 19
✓ Residual Land Value -What would a private developer pay for this land underneath my project if it was developed as proposed?
✓ Discounted Cash Flows -If my project receives income over time, and I have to build it today, what is the present value of this project, taking into account the cost of borrowing money today and the recognition of income for years down the road
✓ Rates of Return -there are multiple ways to measure the relationship between dollars spent (cash, equity, debt) and dollars received (bullk sales, ground lease, vertical lease, distributed profits), and different entities will value these returns differently.
Side note - In general, a real estate project is considered viable if the net income generated from the sale or rental of a project provides the developer/investor with a return that is commensurate with the associated risks. In general, there must be a favorable relationship between the dollars spent on a project -capital and operating costs (called cash outflows) and the revenue generated from the sale of the property and/ or the rental income of a project (called cash inflows).
Phase Ill: Site and Engineering Analysis (step 3 Real Estate Development Process) explained:
Real Estate chap 1 - 20
The site and engineering analysis is intended to result in a development plan, on paper, which can be discussed with and perhaps officially submitted to appropriate planning agencies. In some areas, an informal discussion is encouraged before official submission; in many instances that is preferable for the developer because less engineering work is required to create a concept or schematic plan than for a full plan for site plan and/ or subdivision approval.
Creation of the plan (for phase III: Site & Engineering Analyis) must consider not only the site itself, but also the surrounding area. Topics to consider include:
Real Estate chap 1 - 20-21
General
✓ Visibility;
✓ Access;
✓ Surrounding property characteristics
On Site - Natural Conditions & Contamination ✓ Topography, vegetation; ✓ Property size and shape; ✓ Soils, wetlands; ✓ Environmental contamination; ✓ Seismic conditions; ✓ Protected or endangered species; ✓ Archaeologically significant areas
On-Site - Road Issues ✓ Curbs, curb cuts, gutters, sidewalks; ✓ Code and zoning ordinances governing site access; ✓ Parking, internal circulation; ✓ Rail rights-of-way and spurs; ✓ Street easements and rights-of-way.
Off-site - site access infrastrucutre
✓ Perimeter road volume, capacity, circulation, turn lanes, traffic signals;
✓ Highway access, bridges, underpasses, rail crossings;
✓ Transit access;
✓ On-street parking;
✓ Police and fire protection access.
On-Site/Off-Site - Utilities
✓ Water, sewer, and storm water capacity;
✓ Storm water drainage and retention;
✓ Gas, electric, and telecommunications capacity;
✓ Cable and internet services and classifications
Off-Site - Planning & Development
✓ Circulation -the area required for pedestrian and vehicular circulation and access, including area for service docks and access, auto circulation to parking areas, passenger drop-off areas, and walkways
✓ There may be dedicated local and state highway restrictions, ordinances, and right-of-ways/ easements on site access and traffic flow systems as well as requirements for new roadways, turning lanes, traffic signals, etc.
Phase IV: Financing (step 4 Real Estate Development Process) explained:
The availability of financing is one of the most critical factors in real estate development affecting what gets built, where, when, and by whom.
Real estate financing is challenging because of:
Real Estate chap 1 - 22-23
✓ The magnitude of the capital requirements -capital requirements for real estate development usually are greater than the assets of the developer or investor.
✓ The risky nature of real estate investments -they are long-term and relatively illiquid.
✓ The unique nature of land and buildings -land is considered a durable asset; buildings are a depreciable asset.
Phase IV: Financing - Debt vs. equity
Real Estate chap 1 - 22-23
Debt capital - Debt capital is money loaned to be paid back in fixed installments on a fixed schedule. It reduces the amount of equity and thus increases the variability of return on equity investment (i.e., leverage). There can be more than one lien or one type of debt. EDOs often provide a second loan, which only gets repaid after the private lender first lien is paid off. Most commercial lenders will not finance the full cost of the project. In the past, lenders lent up to 80% or more of the total project costs or appraised value. Today’s lenders are less likely to do this, and often require equity participation upwards of 40%.
Equity Capital - - Developers are often required to provide their own investments into real estate projects in the form of “equity”, sometimes from a partnership or joint venture. Equity is an ownership investment into a project with no predetermined schedule for payback. It bridges the gaps between debt fmancing and the cost of the project. It is subordinate to debt financing, meaning that if the project performs poorly or fails, proceeds go to pay off lenders first. There are an increasing number of pooled equity sources that seek out real estate ventures as a potential vehicle. These fall into pools that are privately-held (“private equity”) and those that are publicly-traded and invested pools (“public equity”), both of which are different peaks and nadirs in the investment cycle.
Phase V: Contractor Negotiations & Public
Approvals (step 5 Real Estate Development Process) explained:
Real Estate chap 1 - 24
This stage involves setting up the joint venture and/ or the public/ private development agreement (if public money or land is involved), getting the final permit approvals, securing the financial commitments including the permanent financing and the construction loan, setting up the construction contracts, and negotiating the prelease agreements. Getting all of the necessary pieces in place requires elaborate and often prolonged negotiations. Good intentions do not build real estate. Until there are legally binding commitments that specify who does what when, who owns what, and who pays whom, the project cannot go forward. Real estate development is always a lawyer intensive game.
Major public approvals include:
✓ Zoning;
✓ Subdivision;
✓ Site plan review;
✓ Building permits
Major Private Development Agreements Include:
✓ Joint venture agreements; ✓ Land acquisition contracts; ✓ Lender commitments; ✓ Architect and engineering agreements; ✓ Construction contracts; ✓ Lease/Sale contracts; ✓ Insurance agreements.
Phase VI: Construction (step 6 Real Estate Development Process) explained:
Real Estate chap 1 - 24
This stage involves the actual development or construction of the site or facility, as well as activities required to prepare the site for construction.
These activities can include:
✓ Environmental remediation; ✓ Demolition; ✓ Infrastructure development (parking, roads, utilities); ✓ Building construction/ renovation; ✓ Tenant improvements; ✓ Preleasing.
Phase VII: Marketing (Step 7 Real Estate Development Process) Explained
Real Estate chap 1 - 25
Marketing to potential tenants and purchasers is a vital stage of the real estate development process and typically begins prior to construction. Developers and economic development organizations determine marketing strategies for preconstruction pricing, advertising, promotion, earned media, and broker relations.
Pre-construction pricing offers discounted pricing to tenants and buyers who make a deposit to reserve land/ space prior to construction. Earned media is publicity about the project from the news media. Broker relations establish policies and procedures to work with and compensate real estate brokers.
Phase VIII: Building Occupancy & Management (Step 8 Real Estate Development Process) Explained
Real Estate chap 1 - 25
Once development is completed, the building is occupied and the property owner must manage the property. Management entails property and asset management. Property management includes the marketing, leasing, and maintenance of the property, as well as tenant relations and services. Asset management includes capital improvements, refinancing, and the sale of the property. Sale of the property marks the end of the process and recapture of the initial investment.
The Need for Participation in Development - Explained - don’t need to memorize
Public participation, especially the provision of incentives, is generally based on the “but for’’ test. That is, the development would not happen “but for’’ the use of the incentive. Type III below is common among economic development practitioners to target a specific use to drive the market.
Real Estate chap 1 - 25-26
Type I
Projects for which there exists neither current market support, nor the likelihood of adequate market support to justify their costs in the foreseeable future. There is no expectation of cost recovery. This type
generally requires front-end assistance. Low income housing projects typically fall within this category.
Type II
Projects for which current market support is inadequate to justify development, but for which there exists some reasonable probability that if
the property is developed, it will generate sufficient revenue to repay its total costs or a portion of those costs. Examples include rural industrial parks, distressed neighborhood grocery stores, and hotels next to convention a centers. Most EDO-initiated speculative buildings fll in this category.
Type III
Projects for which the public sector controls a property parcel or development right that is uniquely valuable to the developer, such as owning valuable land downtown. The impetus for this type of development is to generate money or meet econ develop or social objectives.
Participation of the private sector is vital to the real estate development process. Players include the following
real Estate Chap 2 – 28
✓ Developers; ✓ Equity investors; ✓ Business owners; ✓ Lenders; ✓ Architects, engineers, contractors, attorneys; ✓ Property managers; ✓ Tenants.
Developers may become involved in real estate development to:
real Estate Chap 2 – 28
✓ Respond to an unmet or unsatisfied market need.
✓ Create market demand that previously was non-existent, such as a theme park
✓ Respond to local, state, or federal initiatives that provide real estate development incentives for targeted areas and populations.
Public agencies and nonprofit development organizations often facilitate the real estate development process. This effort may include:
real Estate Chap 2 – 32
✓ Facilitating regulatory approvals; ✓ Providing partial financing; ✓ Providing infrastructure; ✓ Improving streetscapes; ✓ Implementing a facade improvement program; ✓ Becoming a tenant in the project.
When the public agency is taking a facilitating role, the developer takes the lead role. The developer will acquire or lease the property, identify the land use, and conduct predevelopment activities. An EDO might want to take a facilitating role when:
✓ Responding to a specific developer initiative;
✓ Encouraging the private sector to identify and initiate projects;
✓ Encouraging development by reducing the risks associated with initiating development;
✓ Focusing redevelopment on an area rather than a specific site.
Initiator Role
As the initiating body, the EDO acquires or owns property for development. For an EDO to initiate development, the following conditions should be present:
real Estate Chap 2 – 32-33
✓ A strong need to develop a specific property or area;
✓ Political will to withstand the risks of development;
✓ An agency with expertise and resources to develop the property.
Initiator Role
Once an area is established, the redevelopment agency is given additional powers and resources to initiate redevelopment through land assembly and the other tools. Its actions may include a combination of any of the following:
real Estate Chap 2 – 33
✓ Conducting feasibility analysis and conceptual design;
✓ Obtaining regulatory approval or working with the regulatory agency to gain approval;
✓ Initiating the public participation process;
✓ Issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP);
✓ Selecting a developer;
✓ Providing partial financing;
✓ Selling or leasing land;
✓ Providing project-specific infrastructure improvements.
Physical conditions, access, visibility, utilities, and parking are among a developer’s first considerations when embarking on property development. In general, the more accessible a site is, the greater its market potential. The following are questions to consider when looking at the site:
Real Estate Chap 3 - 46
✓ What is the topography and shape? How well will the site accommodate development or reuse?
✓ How does the site “read” from the road? Is it easily visible from important high-traffic corridors? How does it look from the primary approach route?
✓ Do nearby roads allow for easy access to the site?
✓ How accessible is the site for private vehicles? Pedestrians? Mass transit?Truck and rail service?
✓ What is the lot size? Is it adequate to support parking? If not, is affordable parking available?
✓ Are utilities and public services (police, fire, etc.) affordable and adequate?
Regional characteristics are an important consideration in the formal market analysis. Regional transportation systems and spending patterns can be discerned through field observations, discussions with local business owners, and a cursory analysis of the area before a formal feasibility study. While a thorough market analysis is use-specific, there are some general questions that guide a brief analysis of regional characteristics:
Real Estate Chap 3 - 46
✓ What kinds of businesses seem to be doing well in the neighborhood? Do they have plans for expansion?
✓ What income brackets characterize local neighborhoods?
✓ What is the regional transportation infrastructure system like? Does it provide ready access to the site and thereby increase access to a larger market?
✓ What are the commercial traffic patterns among principal and supporting activities?
✓ Is there access to mass transit? What is the level of usage by day, week, and hour?
✓ What are private vehicular traffic patterns like? Where are the major thoroughfares? Are there any planned improvements or new routes?
✓ Is there heavy-truck or rail service? What kind of uses could this site serve?
✓ What is the size and location of the nearest airport?
✓ How is transportation access to relevant support services, suppliers and labor? How long does it take to travel to the site from their locations?
Neighborhood characteristics, such as the relative safety and the level of blight in an area, contribute to the potential success of a property. Distressed neighborhoods may be eligible for public funding targeted at eliminating blight. Therefore, a developer should consider public incentives for development that may be available due to a neighborhood’s socioeconomic characteristics. An analysis of the neighborhood should include the following questions:
Real Estate Chap 3 - 46
✓ What is the perception versus actual crime levels in the area? Have they gone up or down in the recent past?
✓ Has the neighborhood implemented crime-prevention tactics, such as better lighting, a neighborhood watch, and increased police patrolling?
✓ Does it look like there might be an emerging residential community?
✓ What is the average income level and general spending habits of the residents? Is there a healthy consumer base and labor supply?
✓ What is the character of adjacent properties? Are there many vacant buildings in the area? Have they been purchased recently? Are buildings being renovated or have rehabilitation potential?
✓ How are the aesthetics? Is the area clean?
✓ What other businesses are in the neighborhood?
✓ How are existing neighborhood businesses performing?
✓ What types of units are available for rent and at what cost? Is there an unmet demand for a particular type of rental space?
A market analysis is intended to answer the following questions:
Real Estate chap 4 – 52
✓ What products are appropriate for this market?
✓ What will tomorrow’s customer demand?
✓ What is the appropriate timing & phasing for this project?
✓ What is the appropriate quantity and mix of uses for this project given the market?
✓ Are there financial considerations that the market alone will not bear?
✓ How can this project be best-positioned in the competitive marketplace?
The market analysis process varies by land use (office, industrial, retail, etc.). However, in general it should follow some basic guidelines:
Real Estate Chap 4 - 53
✓ Define the market area (or primary and secondary market areas).
✓ Evaluate the supply of current and future competitive properties and tenants.
✓ Evaluate area market demand from customers for retail and housing uses and for tenants for all land uses.
✓ Assess the expected demand and projected absorption rate for the market area
✓ Compare the project with similar projects on a cost or rental-per-squarefoot basis, taking into account various site factors, such as access, visibility, physical or perceptual boundaries, vacancies, amenities, design considerations, etc.
✓ Estimate the overall market capture, absorption, and sales prices or lease rates of the proposed project.
✓ Identify amenities and characteristics of the subject property that give it a competitive edge in the market. (These can be refined later).
good market analysis takes into account the site within the context of its neighboring land uses, patterns of regional growth, planning/ zoning considerations, and role within the regional economy. In general, it should address the following:
Real estate chap 4 - 56
✓ Size, topography, layout & constraints ✓ Surrounding land uses ✓ Proximity to employment and services ✓ Area prestige/ reputation ✓ Access, visibility & frontage ✓ Planned infrastructure improvements
Major economic factors to consider include in econ and demographic analysis :
Real estate chap 4 - 56-57
✓ Employment growth ✓ Location of employment cores ✓ Major employers ✓ Major industries ✓ Industries that are growing/ declining ✓ Economic development initiatives
There are a number of public and private sources of data to analyze the above, but often times a good study will incorporate first-person primary research in addition to mere data gathering.
Major demographic factors to consider include:
✓ Household and population growth ✓ Income distribution ✓ Household age by income ✓ Household size and types ✓ Ownership and renter propensity ✓ Annual retail expenditures
Supply analysis also informs an understanding of future supply conditions. Will the market be inundated with competitive projects in the near future? Is the existing competition, both planned and proposed, missing a market segment? At minimum, supply analysis should address the following:
Real estate chap 4 - 58
✓ Current and future supply conditions
✓ Performance of existing, relevant projects
✓ Price/ rent trends
✓ Historical sales/ absorption rates
✓ Nature of buyers/ renters/ tenants
✓ Future development pipeline
✓ Current market segmentation
✓ Dominant consumer preferences?
✓ Location, quality, product trade-offs in the marketplace
✓ Identification of niche market opportunities
The supply analysis will also determine the Primary Market Area - the area from which 80% of the demand at the subject site is likely to emanate, and the Competitive Market Area - the area in which the subject site will most actively compete for market share. There is no way to determine these factors without conducting first-person supply-side analyses. Note that for each land use - retail, residential, hospitality, office, industrial - the PMA and CMA determination will be different and calculated differently.
Factors to include in competitive supply analysis include the following:
Real estate chap 4 - 58-59
Residential Property types ✓ Historical permit activity ✓ New Home sales data ✓ Resale market data ✓ Project location ✓ Number of units ✓ Sales pace/Lease-up pace ✓ Builders ✓ Floor plans & sizes ✓ Base prices/ rents ✓ Upgrades, premiums ✓ Average $/SF ✓ Orientation ✓ Amenities ✓ Execution ✓ Physical layout ✓ Marketing ✓ Buyer profile
Commercial Property Types
✓ Total inventory ✓ Vacancy rates ✓ Absorption ✓ New construction and pipeline ✓ Average rents and rental rate growth ✓ Project Location ✓ Total square feet ✓ Vacancy rate ✓ Rental Rates ✓ Lease Terms ✓ Orientation o Office: Class A trophy, boutique, medical, etc. o Retail: Neighborhood, lifestyle, community, etc. ✓ Tenant profile o Anchor tenants o Typical tenant size ✓ Industry segments
In general, demand models attribute a majority of demand potential to the Primary Market Area and a subset of demand potential to a Secondary Market Area. Delineating these market areas is a function of primary research and market knowledge, and is the result of integrated analysis of all of the above factors.
When constructing demand models, the market analysis should consider the following factors that affect demand potential.
real estate chap 4- 59-60
Residential product types ✓ Household growth and turnover ✓ Income ✓ Age and move-down percentages ✓ Tenure shifts ✓ Turnover rate ✓ Consumer preferences
Office & industrial product types ✓ Employment growth ✓ Industry distribution ✓ Office location agglomerations ✓ Spin-off needs ✓ Distribution of jobs into space ✓ Square feet needed per new office-using or industrial-using job
Retail product types ✓ household growth ✓ income & discretionary income ✓ household expenditures ✓ Expenditures by store and center type ✓ Sales per square foot thresholds for different retailers
Recommendations may be geared towards the developer or the EDO, and often inform an understanding of the level of involvement required by the public sector or the expected outcome of a particular real estate development venture.
Recommendations that come out of Market Feasibility include:
real estate chap 4- 60-61
✓ “Highest and Best” land use(s) - What land uses provide the greatest level of economic value today and tomorrow?
✓ Orientation and target consumer - Who is the customer for this project, and What are their needs?
✓ Market Positioning - How should this project be positioned in the marketplace to differentiate it from the competition?
✓ Pricing - What are the achievable rents and/ or prices that this project can achieve, and do these prices justify the cost of construction?
✓ Constriction Type - What type of construction (wood frame, steel, concrete, etc.) do the prices justify, based on financial modeling, and do these construction types deliver the type of project envisioned?
✓ Features and amenities - What features & amenities must this project deliver in order to be successful? How do these features & amenities impact the overall construction cost or management cost of the project?
✓ Absorption/Sales - How quickly will this project sell in the marketplace, and will this time period be in-line with the type of financing taht is secured?
✓ Profitability - Does the developer or EDO recognize a profit in the venture, and if not, what incentive must be offered in order to generate profit?
Before embarking on a community involvement process, the EDO should develop a community involvement strategy that includes two main components: (1) goals for the process; and (2) an assessment of the community. The resulting strategy should reflect both the goals and the community. A number of factors should be considered, such as:
real estate chap 4 - 62
✓ Area History: What is the culture and history of the area in which the project is located? Have there been other attempts at development?What kind of attitude does the community have toward change?
✓ Community Leadership and Vision: Who are the leaders in the community? Are there community leaders who may not be part of a formal organization? Does the leadership change often?
✓ Affected Parties: Who are the stakeholders in the community? Are the stakeholders represented by organizations? What are the characteristics of those organizations?
✓ Project Funding: How is the project being funded?
✓ Project Size and Complexity: How large is the project or proposed redevelopment area? How many neighborhoods does it affect? Who or what entity is driving the process? What motives are driving the process?Who has power to stop the project or plan?
✓ Existing Plans and Studies: If a project, is the site included in an existing plan (e.g., neighborhood plan, revitalization plan)? If a redevelopment plan, has there been a previous planning effort? What was the result? Are there ideas for the site from previous plans or efforts?
✓ Staffing: What is the institutional capacity to undertake the proposed project?
Fiscal Impact Measures
How do you calculate cost per job and leverage?
real estate - chap 4 - 72
Cost per job is the cost to the public sector for creating a job. Leverage is the amount of private-sector funds that are invested per dollar of public investment.
For example, say an agency provides $100,000 as part of a $400,000 public funding package for a $1 million project that generates 50 jobs. The agency may claim that its program returned $2,000 ($100,000 grant/SO jobs) per job and leveraged $900,000 with its $100,000 investment for a leverage of 9.0. An economic development professional, wishing to compare altemative investments, should aggregate all public costs local, state, and federal) in calculating cost per job and leverage. Then, the $100,000 from the one funding agency is combined with $300,000 from other public agencies for a total of $400,000 in public investment. This investment generates $8,000 per job ($400,000 in public funds / 50 jobs) and leverages $600,000 in private investment for a leverage ratio of 1.5.
What is a hurdle or discount rate?
Real Estate Chap 5 -75
Risk depends primarily on factors such as market demand, competitive strengths, type of development, construction challenges, regulatory climate, and liquidity. Such factors are compared to similar factors for alternative investments. Anytime one makes an investment they are foregoing the opportunity to make a return form an alternative investment (known as opportunity cost). For example, an investor may accept a return of 8% on an established shopping center, reasoning that it is comparable in risk and return to the stock market, which yields 8-10% return long-term. When such as return, say 8%, is designated by the investor as their minimum threshold return, it is referred to as the hurdle rate or discount rate.
The developer may set the hurdle rate at 18% for a higher risk development project. If the anticipated return of a project is greater than the hurdle rate, the developer will go ahead with the project. If a project’s expected return is less than the hurdle rate, the developer or investors will not participate or they will negotiate a better deal.
Cash Flow
Financial projections are prepared to address questions of feasibility by projecting cash flow. Cash flows include the following major categories:
Real Estate Chap 5 -76
Cash Outflows: ✓ Property acquisition; ✓ Development costs; ✓ Operating costs; ✓ Debt service; ✓ Capital improvements; ✓ Selling costs.
Cash Inflows:
✓ Operating revenues;
✓ Sales proceeds.
These cash flows are best understood through the preparation of financial projections. Common financial projections are:
✓ Development costs;
✓ Sources and uses of funds ;
✓ Operating pro forma;
✓ Supportable debt & equity
What are hard costs in real estate?
Real Estate Chap 5 -77
Hard Costs
Costs which include labor and materials; these costs are often referred to as “bricks and mortar” costs. Because of the uncertainties in estimating these costs, contractors typically include a 5-15% contingency fee.
Tenant Improvements
The cost of finishing out the building; these costs include carpeting, lighting, floorboards, etc. The contractor normally provides an allowance for these features. Costs in excess of the allowance are covered by the tenant.
What are soft costs in real estate?
Real Estate Chap 5 -77
Soft Costs
Costs, which include professional fees for engineering and architecture services, taxes, interest and other loan related fees, permitting fees, insurance, advertising and promotion. These costs typically include a developer fee or payment for the developer’s professional time. This fee is over and above the investment return, which typically goes to the developer and other equity partners. Soft costs could include:
✓ Architecture and engineering (A&E) fees; ✓ Permit fees; ✓ Legal fees; ✓ Construction loan interest; ✓ Construction insurance; ✓ Pre-leasing marketing costs; ✓ Developer fee.
Side Note: The development costs (Hard, soft, and tenant improvements) are combined with land acquisition to determine total capital requirements. Sometimes the pro forma financial analysis is first prepared without land costs to estimate how much the land is worth based on a targeted rate of return. The following Table, Cicada Building, provides a general breakdown for development costs. This generic building will be discussed throughout this chapter to illustrate financial analysis.
Operating Pro Formas for real estate - just read
real estate - chap 5 - 80
The operating pro forma is the standard format that shows projected revenues, expenses and cash flows to be generated by a project. It can be in single year or multi-year statements. In the case of a single year pro forma, the figures are based on cash flows from the first stable year of a project’s operations. The stabilized year, often the 2nd or 3rd year, is the year that the property is fully leased. This year is assumed, sometimes optimistically, to be a good indication of future cash flows. Generally, there is no resale component in the single year pro forma statement. Multi-year pro formas show expectations over several years or the entire life of the project ending with the sale of the property. They account for projected annual changes in revenues and costs. (For more on multi-year projections, see later discussion of advanced investment return calculations.)
Pro formas are also done for land sales, say for an industrial park or with unit sales for multi-family housing. We are using the leased facility as an example because it is often the most complex form of pro forma.
In drawing up the pro forma statement, the gross square feet is reduced to net square feet to account for hallways, elevator shafts, public restrooms, and other space that isn’t leased. The developer estimates rents, vacancies, and absorption from market research. Absorption is the rate at which space is leased or sold. Operating expenses are based on those for similar properties, adjusting for differences in utility costs, building design, size, age, condition and amenities. Once the revenue and operating expenses are projected, the income generated from the project can be calculated. Income produced by a property is defined in terms of its net operating income (NOI). It is simply the balance remaining after all operating expenses are deducted from gross receipts but before debt service and capital reserves. Capital reserves are funds set aside on an annual basis to pay for periodic capital improvements such as the replacement of a roof, overhaul of HVAC, and tenant improvements as tenants roll over. Capital reserves are deducted from NOI to generate cash flow from operations.
What is Depreciation?
Real Estate - 81-82
Depreciation is a reduction in value of an asset, usually due to age and wear and tear. This consumption of physical capital is recognized by taxing authorities as a cost of production and can therefore be deducted from net income.
As a building ages, it depreciates in terms of taxable value, even though it may be increasing in terms of its market value. Only income producing property is eligible for depreciation. This includes buildings, sidewalks, landscaping, etc. Land is not depreciable, as it is assumed to hold its value over time.
The depreciation rate for tax deductions on real estate is calculated using the straight-line method, where the cost of an asset minus the residual value of the asset is divided by the number of product years of the asset, called the depreciable life.
The depreciable life of real property is an arbitrary apportionment that does not necessarily reflect the value of the asset. For tax purposes, the depreciable life of real property is 27.5 years for residential rental property and 39 years for nonresidential real property.
How do you calculate debt service?
Real estate Chap 5 - 84
Debt service is calculated by taking the stabilized year operating income and dividing it by a factor or coverage ratio that the lender determines. For example, a $200,000 projected operating income divided by a coverage ratio of 1.2 equals $166,667. The lender will agree to provide a loan based on a payment of $166,667. The coverage ratio provides a buffer in case the projected $200,000 operating income proves optimistic.
The ratio required varies, depending on the type of project, character of the developer, the lender’s assessment of project related risk and the lender’s general policies. Lenders generally like to see a minimum debt coverage ratio of 1.2. However, the higher the risk of a project, the higher the required debt coverage ratio.
What is the loan to vale ratio?
Real estate Chap 5 - 84
This is the ratio between the loan amount and a property’s appraised value or total capital requirements. If this exceeds a certain ratio, say 70-80%, the loan will have to be rejected or renegotiated. The lower the ratio, the greater the equity a borrower has in a property and the less inclined the borrower will be to default and lose the property to foreclosure. Like the debt coverage ratio, the lender required loan to-value ratio is based on property characteristics, lender confidence in the developer and the lender’s general policies.
3 ways appraisers typically appraise property:
real Estate Chap 5 85-86
Cost Approach - This approach is based on the rationale that no one would pay more for a property than it would cost to buy the land and build the structure that occupies it.
Market or Sales Comparison - This method compares a property with similar properties that have sold recently in tl1e surrounding area, making adjustments from the comparable sales to allow for any differences among the properties.
Income Capitalization - This approach is based on the rationale that properties produce a stream of income, and investors will pay a price that reflects the value of that income. Capitalization is based on the rationale that at any given time, a property will be valued according to its current net operating income.
When the net operating income (NOI) is divided by a property’s sales price, the resulting figure is called the Capitalization Rate. The capitalization rate, or cap rate for short, is expressed as a percentage.
Payback period defined:
real Estate - Chap 5 - 87
Payback period is the length of time it takes for the project cash flows to recover the initial investment. For example, a development project that costs $100,000 and generates cash inflows of $25,000 a year has a payback of 4 years.
If the payback period is equal to, or slightly less than, the economic life of the project, then the proposal is unacceptable. If the payback period is considerably less than the economic life of the project, then it begins to look more attractive.
There are major drawbacks to using payback:
✓ It does not measure the time value of money. Cash paid back four years from now is given the same value as cash received next year.
✓ It does not consider differences in economic lives. With the payback period, there is a tendency to think that the shorter the payback period the better the project. However, a project with a longer payback period may be better if the project will generate cash inflows for a longer period of time.
Cash on Cash Return, also known as return on equity (ROE)
Real estate Chap 5 - 88
Cash on cash return is simply the cash flow divided by equity. It can be done for the stabilized year of operations or for each year of a multi-year operating pro forma. The advantage of cash on cash return is that it is simple to calculate and understand. The disadvantage is that it does not account for property appreciation.