READING 1 RATES AND RETURNS Flashcards
What do interest rates measure?
Interest rates measure the time value of money the compensation required for deferring consumption or accepting risk in financial securities.
What determines equilibrium interest rates?
The intersection of supply (savers/lenders) and demand (borrowers) in financial markets. It’s the rate where the market clears (required return = market return).
What is the real risk-free rate?
A theoretical rate with:
No inflation (purchasing power constant).
No default risk (guaranteed repayment).
Reflects pure time preference (reward for waiting).
*Used in models like CAPM
What’s the difference between real and nominal rates?
Nominal Rate: Observed rate (includes inflation premium).
Real Rate: Nominal rate adjusted for inflation (true purchasing power).
(1+Nominal) ≈ (1+Real) × (1+Inflation)
T-bills are nominal risk-free (include inflation).
What risks increase the required rate of return?
Default Risk: Borrower fails to pay.
Liquidity Risk: Can’t sell quickly at fair value.
Maturity Risk: Longer-term bonds have more price volatility.
Required Return ≈ Nominal Risk-Free Rate + Risk Premiums
Are T-bill rates real or nominal risk-free rates?
Nominal risk-free they include an inflation premium but no default risk.
Why Not Real? Expected inflation is embedded in T-bill yields.
Why do longer-term bonds have higher yields?
Maturity risk premium compensates for:
Greater price sensitivity to interest rate changes.
Uncertainty over future inflation/default risk.
What are the components of a security’s required interest rate?
Real Risk-Free Rate (RRFR)
+Inflation Premium
+Default Risk Premium
+Liquidity Premium
+Maturity Risk Premium
Nominal Rate ≈ RRFR + Inflation + Risk Premiums
Why does the real risk-free rate reflect “time preference”?
It quantifies how much society prefers current consumption over future consumption.
High RRFR = Impatient population (demands high reward to save).
Low RRFR = Patient population (willing to defer consumption).
How does liquidity risk affect corporate bonds vs. T-bills?
T-bills: Near-zero liquidity risk (deep market).
Corporate bonds: Higher liquidity risk → higher yield demanded.
Why are long-term bonds more sensitive to rate changes?
Duration risk, longer maturities have more cash flows exposed to discount rate changes.
How is the inflation premium determined?
By expected future inflation (not past inflation).
What’s the simplified formula for the real rate?
Real Rate ≈ Nominal Rate − Inflation
Rank asset classes by risk premiums (low to high):
- T-bills (nominal risk-free)
- T-bonds (+ maturity risk)
- Investment-grade bonds (+ default risk)
- High-yield bonds (+ higher default risk)
- Equities (+ liquidity, business risk)
What is the arithmetic mean return?
a) A weighted average of periodic returns
b) The simple average of periodic returns
c) A return adjusted for outliers
b) The simple average of periodic returns
The arithmetic mean is the sum of periodic returns divided by the number of periods. It’s an unbiased estimator of the true mean return.
When is the geometric mean equal to the arithmetic mean?
a) When returns are volatile
b) When all periodic returns are identical
c) When outliers are removed
b) When all periodic returns are identical
The geometric mean equals the arithmetic mean only if there’s no variability in returns (all observations are equal).
How does the geometric mean compare to the arithmetic mean for volatile returns?
a) Geometric mean > Arithmetic mean
b) Geometric mean = Arithmetic mean
c) Geometric mean < Arithmetic mean
c) Geometric mean < Arithmetic mean
The geometric mean accounts for compounding and is always ≤ arithmetic mean, with the gap widening as volatility increases.
Q: What is the harmonic mean used for?
a) Calculating average portfolio returns
b) Average cost of shares purchased over time
c) Adjusting for inflation in returns
b) Average cost of shares purchased over time
The harmonic mean is used for dollar-cost averaging (e.g., fixed monthly mutual fund purchases).
For non-identical values, how do the means rank?
a) Harmonic < Geometric < Arithmetic
b) Geometric < Harmonic < Arithmetic
c) Arithmetic < Geometric < Harmonic
a) Harmonic < Geometric < Arithmetic
Harmonic < Geometric < Arithmetic is a mathematical property (e.g., for returns: 2%, 5%, 8%).
Why is the harmonic mean relevant to dollar-cost averaging?
a) It ignores volatility
b) It lowers the average share cost
c) It compounds returns
b) It lowers the average share cost
Buying fixed dollar amounts over time reduces average cost per share, which the harmonic mean captures.
Which measure is most affected by outliers?
a) Geometric mean
b) Arithmetic mean
c) Harmonic mean
b) Arithmetic mean
The arithmetic mean includes all values, making it sensitive to outliers.
What does a trimmed mean do?
a) Removes a percentage of extreme values
b) Compounds periodic returns
c) Adjusts for inflation
a) Removes a percentage of extreme values
A trimmed mean excludes a set percentage of the highest/lowest values to reduce outlier impact.
How does a winsorized mean handle outliers?
a) Replaces them with the nearest non-outlier
b) Excludes them entirely
c) Doubles their weight
a) Replaces them with the nearest non-outlier
Winsorizing caps outliers at a certain percentile (e.g., 95th percentile).
When should you use the arithmetic mean?
a) To measure compounded growth
b) To include all data points
c) To calculate average share cost
b) To include all data points
se the arithmetic mean when all values (including outliers) are relevant.