RE Market Sectors Flashcards
Name the main mkt sectors of RE.
commercial, industrial, residential retail, hotels/tourism, healthcare/retirement.
commercial office mkt - based in various major cities and CBDs, 2ndary mkts in various suburban localities e.g. parramatta, north sydney, macquarie park, kinds park in qld, east perth in wa) . **main factors to consider w.r.t. commercial re: building quality, inv risks, and val techniques.**
How does the PCA (property council of Australia) grade building quality?
PCA provides a grading system for assessing quality: Premium, A, B, C and D grade) ; premium and A grade buildings are commonly grouped together as **Prime Grade buildings**.
possible for a building to have a high grade based on its prime location and condition but low environmental rating
* **govt lease is highly valued by building owners** -> hence **progressive upgrading** of existing buildings **on the basis of rigorous cost/benefit analysis.**
why grade/rating is increasingly important?
- pressure on building owners- there is a positive obligation on building owners to disclose environmental operational efficiency of building, as this affects outgoing costs which are generally recovered from the tenants; 2. pressure on tenants - govt depts and corps seek to maintain how the public perceive their support for the environment (so they ‘d only occupy buildings which have a minimum green-star rating)
What are the 3 primary investment risk issues of property investment?
- Physical - grades change over time -> building owners may have to spend more on finishes and services to maintain a garde and position in the RE mkt (majority of institutional owners usually only occupy premium to B buildings)
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Legal - title can be freehold title v leasehold title - freehold as in endless term and the right to undertake any activity without the restrictions that leasehold may impose. but in most CBDs, many props are held under LT leasehold title.
* tenancy covenants and leases - assessing quality issues arising from tenancy, watch out for ratchet clauses (prevent rents falling at mkt reviews), break clauses (that enable lessee to terminate leases early), expansion rights of tenants /first right of refusal over other floors in thebuilding, make-good obligations of the tenant at lease expiry which affect the level of future capex, demolition clauses which enable a break in the lease term for land owners seeking to redevelop their prop. -
Market trends - * trends change over time too (often swing back to previous trends or requirements)
* some known mkt trends:
* oversupply in the CBD lead to rent falls and generous incentives driving tenants to move back into the CBD
* move to office parks due (might have been driven by proximity to the available pool of skilled workers i.e. many would rather choose to work with a firm closer to home than putting up with the time and cost involved with commuting to and from a CBD office)
* move towards higher employee density/lower work space ratios (more open plan offices with use of workstations)
* buildings being open for longer hours and higher after-afters use, as tenants allow staff more flexible working hours.
* greater interest in buildings that are more environmentally friendly, reducing energy consumption and cost by utilising more passive heating and cooling techniques.
What are the 3 main investment risk issues associated with real estate investment?
- Physical - grades change over time -> building owners may have to spend more on finishes and services to maintain a garde and position in the RE mkt (majority of institutional owners usually only occupy premium to B buildings)
-
Legal - title can be freehold title v leasehold title - freehold as in endless term and the right to undertake any activity without the restrictions that leasehold may impose. but in most CBDs, many props are held under LT leasehold title.
* tenancy covenants and leases - assessing quality issues arising from tenancy, watch out for ratchet clauses (prevent rents falling at mkt reviews), break clauses (that enable lessee to terminate leases early), expansion rights of tenants /first right of refusal over other floors in thebuilding, make-good obligations of the tenant at lease expiry which affect the level of future capex, demolition clauses which enable a break in the lease term for land owners seeking to redevelop their prop. -
Market trends - * trends change over time too (often swing back to previous trends or requirements)
* some known mkt trends:
* oversupply in the CBD lead to rent falls and generous incentives driving tenants to move back into the CBD
* move to office parks due (might have been driven by proximity to the available pool of skilled workers i.e. many would rather choose to work with a firm closer to home than putting up with the time and cost involved with commuting to and from a CBD office)
* move towards higher employee density/lower work space ratios (more open plan offices with use of workstations)
* buildings being open for longer hours and higher after-afters use, as tenants allow staff more flexible working hours.
* greater interest in buildings that are more environmentally friendly, reducing energy consumption and cost by utilising more passive heating and cooling techniques.
What valuation methods are commonly used for real estate valuation?
- Cap of NI - adj for reversion, vacancy and immediate capex (12 mos following val date) This method is most appropriate for any property that produces a stable stream of future income. the income shall remain fairly consistent in perpetuity and risk to expected future income remains stable.
- DCF approach (works with inconsistent CF projections, a desired rate of return e.g. investor’s required rate of return from inv can help determine a suitable discount rate to then derive the NPV of all projected future cash flows. )
- Direct Comparison
What are the general steps involved in Capitalisation of Net Income
- Step 1 - determine mkt rental
- Step 2 - calculate the effective rent
- Step 3 - analyse outgoings (benchmark series, knowledge of outgoing levels in other buildings, and judgment calls)
- Step 4 - selection of cap rate
- Step 5 - adjustments (ongoing vacancy, structural repair allowances, reversions if rents were not at mkr rate)
What factors should be considered when selecting the cap rate for a valuation by Cap of N?
* potential for rental growth (higher this is , more willing investors will be to accept lower cap rate or yld)
* security of income from the building
* quality of improvements i.e. amount of capex required in the future
* location e.g. prime or off-prime location
* vacancy level now and lease expiry profile in the future
* use of the property and industry dynamics
* potential for alternative uses (redevelopment)
* term of possession or ownership -freehold or leasehold
* specialised improvements
but you will still need to compre a selected rate to recent sales of similar props to determine if the rate picked is appropriate.
Give some examples of CAPEX.
basic recarpeting, painting and work on ceiling grids, lift lobbies upon lease expiry, or even lift replacement, air-conditioning upgrades, upgrading foyer or any structural problems over the entire CF period (again these are not ongoing operating costs, rather they are more one-off basis)
Name the 7 key variables in DCF model.
- current mkt rent
- rental growth rate (aka mtk rent escalation)
- outoings level and g rate,
- leasing allowances upon lease expiry (allow for vacancy or down time, as we don’t know if tenant wants to renew or vacate upon lease expiry) - this vacancy will vary depending on the mkt sentiment but usually say 3-12 months plus agent fees should be enough leasing allowance. (usually expressed as a **% expected occupancy rate**) ; not uncommon to additionally allow for a rent-free period for new tenants subject to nego and mkt sentiment (usually 1 month for every yr of lease e.g. a 6 yr lease term with 6 mth rent-free period)
- capex over term of CF e.g. $50,000 in yr 6 or 1% of gross monthly rent (where capex needs to be provisioned but you don’t know when that will be as yet, then use a sinking fund provision at periodic intervals)
- terminal yld - hard to determine even for one year into the future, let alone 10 yrs, but factors below can be considered:
* physical state odf the building at the terminal date (how much capex already spent?)
* potential for views and natural light to be diminished by new development
* location improving or deteriorating?
* expectation of mkt conditions
* expected tenancy profile at the end of yr 10 e.g. has a new lease just been isgned or is it about to expire in the yr following (presenting tenancy risk) ?
selection of terminal yld should be consistent with these above factors - disc rate - must have regard to mkt-based sales evidence of similar props (ensure sales are consistently analysed )to have a meaninful comparison before selecting a suitable discount rate
* a premium (usually 2-5%) is added to the prevailing risk-free rate (proxy used is the 10-yr bond rate) to reflect risks (credit risk, liquidity risk, ongoing asset and real estate risk factors)
* disc rates are currently 8-10%
* as disc rate varies from time to time, it is all the more reason why it’s important to undertake sensitivity analysis to examine how the diff terminal yld and disc rates selected impact CFs.
What factors should be considered when investing in the residential RE sector?
- attractiveness as an investment - simplicity (straightforward nature of the inv), mkt performance (inv Rs) and tax advantages
- risk issues
- demographic factors - trend towards smaller households, lower international migration, higher immigration and an ageing population all imply a change in the demand for housing.
- valuation considerations -2 main approaches: comparison of sales and capitalisation of income (cap of NI rarely used as most residential re invs are speculative in nature)
What factors should be considered when using negative gearing for a residential re investment?
inflation (which affect i cost of borrowing), tax and changes to CGT
3 re that form the core of most institutional re holdings?
office, retail and industrial (less interesting, many large institutional investors chose to be underweight in industrial RE holding, although interest has increased in quasi-commercial props e.g. technology centres and distribution centres that provide competitive advantage - note in fact there has been changing nature in industrial re, where extensive distribution centres rather than manufacturing facilities have developed, and institutional weights to industrial RE increased in recent years too)
Note:traditionally, industrial re meant either factories or warehouse, but it has become increasingly sophisticated and is now divided into 5 sections:1. factory manufactoring plants 2. warehouse/distribution centre 3. industrial estates 4. business park 5. office parks
Discuss industrial-specific valuation considerations.
primary val techniques are: cap of ni, DCF and direct comparison with sales.
::industrial re ylds have traditionally been 1-2% higher than retail re (industrial sales comparisons are often more sporadic and usually more geographically diverse); however ylds are now similar, again, due to changing nature of industrial re that improved the expectation of rental and capital growth in industrial re sector.::
* size of the investment (smaller assets have not been favoured as the management intense portfolio of small industrial re has not been worth the cost, hence smaller ones have been divested while larger industrial usually $25-$100m in size of inv are used to increase the average inv by institutional investors)
* ease of oversupply (relatively easier to source vacant land and build and knowdown existing industrial props, ::threat that mkt can be over-supplied with space quickly has the potential to constrain income and capital growth, and has always been a concern to industrial re investors::)
* risks associated with obsolescence (‘specialised premises’ e.g. data centres for telecom companies can be obsolete upon lease expiry due to its low suitability to alternative uses, hence **inv R on these kinds of props should reflect such inherent risk**)
* environmental risks (think about treatment of waste, health and safety hazzards etc. inherent in the property and in the operation of the site)
* marketability of the investment (building quality, security of tenure, quality of lease covenant, location and building design etc. all affect marketability)
* low correlation with equities markets (low as compared to REITs) - reason why it’s usually low: rents are generally locked in on LT leases, rents have to be paid regardless of if the biz is growing or shrinking (rent generally doens’t rise or fall with coy performance)
What is GLAR what does it encompass?
Lettable area within a shopping centre is measured on a gross basis.
GLAR = gross lettable area retail. GLAR includes all floor area occupied by a tenant from the centre line of joint partitions and walls to the outside faces of external walls. No area deductions are made for amenities, tea rooms, plant or services which are within the tenancy area.
describe turnover rent/percentage rent/overage rent?
common practice in the retail industry for leases to includea percentage rent provision - it allows the landlord to share in the profitability of a tenant’s business, once a certain sales hurdle i.e. breakpoint/threshold has been reached. e.g. 5% of every dollar of sales rev in excess of $2,000,000 (threshold) is payable as percentage rent to the landlord. such provision provides incentive for prop owner to focus on improving sales performance of the centre, allow tenants to obtain reasonable profit off a low base rent before being required to pay additional rental. understanding the percentage rent provisions (may be diff for each tenant) is critical in estimating the income potentials for tenants (esp. anchor tenants), and potential sales performance of the centre going forward
note setting the breakpoint - it can be either the ’natural’ breakpoint or a fixed/pre-agreed breakpoint