Rational Choice Theory Flashcards
what does rational choice theory explain?
Rational choice theory explains voting behaviour
So does class and partisan de-alignment
what is rational choice theory?
voters behave like consumers and decide how to vote by evaluating what is the most beneficial option to them as individuals (cost benefit analysis, issue voting)
according to the rational choice theory, what will voters take into consideration when voting?
They will look at policies on offer and choose the party most closely Aligned with their preferences
This is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate with more access to political information via the Internet social media et cetera
They will also look at who the best potential prime minister will be among the available party leaders which candidate and party will manage the economy most successfully which party will provide the best quality public services et cetera
what are factors that voters take into account when making their choices?
Governing competency
Economic issues/voting
Party leaders and public image
Issue voting
Valence issues
example of the rational choice theory: voters judging government competency and using this to inform how they vote
For example in 1979 many of the skilled working-class voted Conservative on the facture because they become disenchanted with the perceived incompetence of the 1970s Labour governments
They then stayed with the Conservatives for the next three general elections but transferred their support to new Labour in 1997 as evidence of John Major is Conservative governments poor management began to build up
They voted labour in 2001 and 2005 but abandon the party in 2010 after faith in it had weakened due to the financial crisis and the recession
factors affecting how people vote
Governing competency
Economic voting
(This affects how people vote)
what is governing competency?
The perceived ability of the governing party in office to manage the affairs of the state affectively as well as judging the potential competency of an opposition party if it were to form a government
Notably in the management of the economy, clear agenda and a united/strong leadership which are all indicators of governing competency
Governing competence is a key valence issue voters often base their decision in voting on how competent they feel the outgoing government has been and the potential competence of other parties
the Perceived ability of the government or opposition to manage the affairs of the country well
what is economic voting?
Voters are more likely to support a governing party if it has managed the economy successfully or may give their support to a party that is likely to deliver economic prosperity, Either to themselves or the population as a whole
The economy is a valence issue, it is accepted by everyone to be important
Voters may be influenced by inflation unemployment interest rates taxation or a more general sense of well-being
voters decide that the economy and its management is a key factor and make a decision about which party is most likely to manage the economy well
example of economic voting
For example public anger over the winter of discontent played a major part in the 1979 Conservative election victory
People were angry at how inadequate the labour had dealt with the financial crisis and felt that the Conservatives could handle the economy more successfully due to that image of financial responsibility and good management
This also played a part in the 2010 general election when the Conservatives blamed labour for the economic crisis and accuse them of mismanagement of the economy and reckless overspending
what are valence issues?
Issues that are accepted by everyone to be of high importance
Issues that are fundamental and accepted by everyone to be important
most of the electorate holds similar views on a valence issue and will vote for the party that they believe will handle and manage that issue the best
E.g. the economy
May look at past performance and potential performance
Where most of the electorate holds similar views on an issue they may decide to vote for one party or another based on how well they think a party and its leader will manage that issue as well as on a judgement of how well the party managed it in the past
Valence can also refer to the general image of a party and its leader which may affect voting behaviour
Valence voting is sometimes also called competence voting
how important is the public image of party leaders in voting behaviour?
The public image of party leaders has become more important recently as politics has become increasingly personalised and British politics seems to have become more presidential since 1979
We have begun to care more about how we perceive leading figures as they do in the US and judge based on character appearance personality et cetera
For example facture was known for and many respected her for her strong leadership qualities whereas Gordon Brown failed to come across as dynamic and assured
what have parties begun to appreciate?
Parties appreciate the importance of presenting leaders in a good light
Photo opportunities are used to show the leader is in touch with the people
Televised debates engage the voters more and allow leaders to come across as likeable and competent
Appearances have become increasingly stage-managed to avoid potentially negative or awkward encounters with the public
Most appearances do not really involve the general public instead loyal supporters are drafted in to give a good impression of spontaneous enthusiasm for the leader
what is salience? what are salient issues?
The general meaning of salience is importance or how crucial something is
In politics an issue is salient if it is especially important to some voters when they are making up their mind about which party to support
what is issue voting?
Voters place one issue above all others and cast vote based on that issue
Involves judging a party’s position on the issue and choosing the party who best reflects their own opinion
Where issue voting takes place about his place one issue above all others and cost about based on that issue
they judge a party or candidate by their position on the issue and choose the one most closely reflects their own opinion
this can mean they vote for a candidate whose other policies would be to their detriment
rational choice theory:
Rational choice theory assumes that photos will make a rational or logical judgement based on what is in their own best interests
In an ideal version voters will be fully informed about the various options and will choose the option that is best for them
By aggregating these views the winning verdict will reflect what is best for society as a whole
The assumption here is that a voter will conduct a cost benefit analysis of all options and make their choice accordingly
rational choice theory:
The rational choice model of voting behaviour suggests that some voters who are not especially committed to one party or another and who do not hold firm and extreme political views make a rational decision at each election and base their vote on that
This is also sometimes described as issue voting
rational choice theory:
Among those who are rational choice or issue voters some political issues are more salient than others
In other words there are policy areas which do affect the way people vote and others that do not
A great deal of research is undertaken by parties to determine what are the salient issues at each election as this will inform them about how to adjust policies and frame their campaign to get the most amount of votes
rational choice theory:
Opinion polls spend a good deal of time researching the salient issues before each election and 2015 was no exception
in 2014 Ipsos MORI Asked voters what were their most important issues
31% Said that the state of the economy was most important to them And the issue that was at the top of their list of priorities
30% said asylum and immigration, 29% said NHS and healthcare, 23% said education
The economy immigration health care and education where the issues of the greatest importance to voters in 2015
The next most important issue was only favoured by 13% of respondents so there were four dominant issues
A year later, YouGov polling Carried out a similar survey and found similar results and the same three top salient issues
The Conservatives were trusted more on the top two issues which goes some way to explaining their victory over labour
rational choice theory:
Two variations of rational choice voting are expressive and instrumental voting
If we assume that voters rationally seek to derive some benefit from a choice of candidates and party when voting we can identify two types of benefit
1) A voter will derive satisfaction if he or she vote for a party that will benefit society as a whole this is sometimes called altruistic or expressive voting
2) The other kind of benefit is to choose the parties policies are likely to favour the voter them selves this is self interested voting usually described as instrumental voting
For example a business person may choose a party which promises to reduce business taxes while a benefit claimant will support a party that promises to make benefits more generous (Examples of instrumental voting)
Both kinds of voting behaviour are rational because they are based on a calculation of good outcomes versus bad outcomes
valence issues:
Most political commentators today will argue that valence is the most important predictor of voting behaviour especially with the emergence of partisan de-alignment
valence issues:
Peter Kellner, a leading political analyst, Summed up valence…
“Millions of swing voters don’t take a strong view on individual issues, they take a valence view of politics. They judge parties and politicians not on my manifestoes but on the character. Are they competent? Honest? Strong in a crisis? Likely to keep their promises?”
valence issues:
Valence voting is sometimes contrasted with positional voting which is where voters choose a party based on its position on one or a group of issues
For example which party will cut personal taxes most? Which parties will spend most on the NHS or education? Or which party will reduce university tuition fees?
valence issues:
As well as general competence voters pay special attention to economic competence which includes how well they believe the party will manage the UK economy and how well they believe it has done so when in power in the past
This may be described as judgements about governing competence — Who will be most responsible with the taxpayers money? Who will do most to spread wealth or promote growth?
This is also sometimes described as economic voting it is a powerful influence on voting behaviour
valence issues:
Voters will look at the performance of the UK economy and decide which of the parties has done most to improve it and which party has damaged the economy in the past
A prime example is the problem the Labour Party had after the economic crisis from 2008 onwards
Labels blamed by many photos for contributing to the crisis and for allowing government debt to rise by an alarming amount
The Conservative party in contrast has an image of fiscal responsibility and good management
Labour defeat in 2010 and 2015 elections were based partly on such economic voting
In 2016 the new Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond stated he would manage the economy on a pragmatic basis so people could feel confident about his competence
valence issues:
A valence issue is one whether to share a common preference i.e. the desire for the country to be economically prosperous
In this theory everyone wants a prosperous and successful economy so no one will vote against a candidate who promises to improve the economy
Instead because they vote based on who they believe is best placed to deliver a strong and successful economy
This also involves governing competency
Politicians will be rewarded if they deliver a strong economy but will be punished at the polls if the economy fails
rational choice theory:
Many voters who are not committed to any particular party or ideology make a rational choice between the parties when voting weighing up the strengths and weaknesses of each
These are of particular importance to parties during election campaigning
