Quiz 3

Question 1

VUCA

Answer 1

volatile
uncertain
complex
ambiguous

Question 2

how do you plan in a vuca world?

Answer 2

strategic planning

complexity does not absolve people from planning, it just means that they have to develop more plans.

Question 3

what CEO’s are saying about complexity and uncertainty

Answer 3

• organizations are experiencing significant upheaval
• the economic environment is more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, and is structurally different
• Complexity is only increasing
• the complexity gap

Question 4

the complexity gap

Answer 4

79% of CEO’s expect higher levels of complexity in the coming years but only 49% feel ready to handle it. that 30% is the complexity gap. the not feeling ready.

Question 5

How CEO’s can capitalize on complexity

Answer 5

• embodying creative leadership
• reinventing customer relationships (seeing the consumer as the expert)
• building operating dexterity (being flexible and ready to shift gears when needed so as to be resilient)

Question 6

Foresight take on how to capitalize on complexity

Answer 6

• to imagine future scenarios that others do not
• to leverage collective intelligence (make consumers the experts)
• to create resilience through dexterity

Question 7

Adam Gordon “Future Savvy”

“it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong”

Answer 7

the concept of directionally correct
Scenarios do not have to be completely accurate in order to be helpful
-most scenarios will be wrong so focus on making it useful for predicting future success
-be on the lookout for scenarios that assign probabilities because you want to illuminate alternatives
-beware of either/or scenarios because it should not be black and white
-scenarios are appropriate for when there is a manageable level of uncertainty (limited number of outcomes)

Question 8

expected scenario

Answer 8

“most likely the future isn’t”

it is highly unlikely for there to be no disruptions

Question 9

uncertainty vs ambiguity

Answer 9

uncertainty is where you know the variables so it is a manageable scenario
ambiguity is where you do not know variables so there is no way to set any scenarios for this

Question 10

four levels of uncertainty

Answer 10

1: clear enough future- where there is really one possible outcome
2: alternative futures- a limited set of possible outcomes, one will for sure occur
3: range of futures- it is a continuous range of possible outcomes
4: true ambiguity- there is not even a limiting range of possible outcomes

Scenario planning is good tool for 2 and 3

Question 11

if the probability of the expected future occurring is low, why is a baseline forecast important?

Answer 11

• evidence-based
• forces us to identify indicators
• it forecasts current trends
• starting point for alternative scenarios

Question 12

The turkey problem- are your forecasts robust past Thanksgiving?

Answer 12

look this up

Question 13

scenarios as narratives

Answer 13

better decisions are made with narratives because they are not just skimming numbers

• meaningful theme and creative names
• built on evidence based foundation
• clear sequence of events
• immersive and distinctive outcomes

Question 14

the value of scenarios

Answer 14

• expands thinking
• memories of the future
• wind tunnel testing
• signposts

Question 15

using scenarios without abdicating leadership

Answer 15

• set forth a goal that is robust under different scenarios
• steer a course between false certainty/confidence and confused paralysis which can come with volatile and uncertain times

Question 16

Scenario development methods

Answer 16

• deductive method (double uncertainty matrix)

- inductive methods (alternative futures, aspirational futures)

Question 17

double uncertainty matrix (Global business network)

Answer 17

best when two key uncertainties will drive future outcomes

Question 18

how to create a double uncertainty scenario matrix

Answer 18

1. identify top 5 uncertainties
2. prioritize top 2 uncertainties to create a matrix
3. define the conditions within each quadrant of the matrix
4. develop stories for each scenario (theme/creative names, narrative/sequence of events, immersive outcome)
5. identify signposts

Question 19

alternative futures (univ of hawaii RCFS)

Answer 19

best when major technological or societal transitions are likely
4 scenario archetypes:
-growth
-constraint
-transformation
-collapse

Question 20

Aspirational futures method (institute for alternative futures)

Answer 20

best when consensus on preferred future exists
4 scenario archetypes
-business as usual
-challenge/hard times
-visionary 1
-visionary 2

Vulnerability 2030

Question 21

inductive method scenario development

Answer 21

1. identify key trends
2. identify uncertainties and plausible disruptions
3. map trends and disruptions into four scenarios
4. develop stories for each scenario
5. define signposts

know what method we are using

Question 22

alternative scenarios

Answer 22

based on clearly defined uncertainties which will likely cause disruptions

Question 23

checklist for creating narrative

Answer 23

1. have you created a theme that is meaningful and memorable for the reader?
2. have you provided clarity on the sequence of events for each scenario? (the “what” element of the story)
3. Does your sequence of events include stakeholder influence/action? (the “who” and “why” element of the story)
4. do the narratives create distinct outcomes?

Question 24

brainstorming

Answer 24

“the best way to come up with a good idea is to have lots of ideas”

Question 25

divergent vs convergent thinking

Answer 25

divergent creates choices
convergent makes choices

divergent thinking uses a comprehensive list to pan out potential implications

Question 26

IDEO’s rules for brainstorming

Answer 26

1. defer judgement
2. build on ideas of others
3. stay focused on the topic
4. one convo at a time
5. encourage wild ideas
6. go for quantity
7. be visual

Question 27

tool to identify implications- futures wheel

Answer 27

step one: identify a lot of implications (divergent thinking)
step two: make choices and explore for opportunities/collisions (convergent thinking)