Quiz 3 Flashcards
VUCA
volatile
uncertain
complex
ambiguous
how do you plan in a vuca world?
strategic planning
complexity does not absolve people from planning, it just means that they have to develop more plans.
what CEO’s are saying about complexity and uncertainty
- organizations are experiencing significant upheaval
- the economic environment is more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, and is structurally different
- Complexity is only increasing
- the complexity gap
the complexity gap
79% of CEO’s expect higher levels of complexity in the coming years but only 49% feel ready to handle it. that 30% is the complexity gap. the not feeling ready.
How CEO’s can capitalize on complexity
- embodying creative leadership
- reinventing customer relationships (seeing the consumer as the expert)
- building operating dexterity (being flexible and ready to shift gears when needed so as to be resilient)
Foresight take on how to capitalize on complexity
- to imagine future scenarios that others do not
- to leverage collective intelligence (make consumers the experts)
- to create resilience through dexterity
Adam Gordon “Future Savvy”
“it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong”
the concept of directionally correct
Scenarios do not have to be completely accurate in order to be helpful
-most scenarios will be wrong so focus on making it useful for predicting future success
-be on the lookout for scenarios that assign probabilities because you want to illuminate alternatives
-beware of either/or scenarios because it should not be black and white
-scenarios are appropriate for when there is a manageable level of uncertainty (limited number of outcomes)
expected scenario
“most likely the future isn’t”
it is highly unlikely for there to be no disruptions
uncertainty vs ambiguity
uncertainty is where you know the variables so it is a manageable scenario
ambiguity is where you do not know variables so there is no way to set any scenarios for this
four levels of uncertainty
1: clear enough future- where there is really one possible outcome
2: alternative futures- a limited set of possible outcomes, one will for sure occur
3: range of futures- it is a continuous range of possible outcomes
4: true ambiguity- there is not even a limiting range of possible outcomes
Scenario planning is good tool for 2 and 3
if the probability of the expected future occurring is low, why is a baseline forecast important?
- evidence-based
- forces us to identify indicators
- it forecasts current trends
- starting point for alternative scenarios
The turkey problem- are your forecasts robust past Thanksgiving?
look this up
scenarios as narratives
better decisions are made with narratives because they are not just skimming numbers
- meaningful theme and creative names
- built on evidence based foundation
- clear sequence of events
- immersive and distinctive outcomes
the value of scenarios
- expands thinking
- memories of the future
- wind tunnel testing
- signposts
using scenarios without abdicating leadership
- set forth a goal that is robust under different scenarios
- steer a course between false certainty/confidence and confused paralysis which can come with volatile and uncertain times
Scenario development methods
- deductive method (double uncertainty matrix)
- inductive methods (alternative futures, aspirational futures)
double uncertainty matrix (Global business network)
best when two key uncertainties will drive future outcomes
how to create a double uncertainty scenario matrix
- identify top 5 uncertainties
- prioritize top 2 uncertainties to create a matrix
- define the conditions within each quadrant of the matrix
- develop stories for each scenario (theme/creative names, narrative/sequence of events, immersive outcome)
- identify signposts
alternative futures (univ of hawaii RCFS)
best when major technological or societal transitions are likely 4 scenario archetypes: -growth -constraint -transformation -collapse
Aspirational futures method (institute for alternative futures)
best when consensus on preferred future exists 4 scenario archetypes -business as usual -challenge/hard times -visionary 1 -visionary 2
Vulnerability 2030
inductive method scenario development
- identify key trends
- identify uncertainties and plausible disruptions
- map trends and disruptions into four scenarios
- develop stories for each scenario
- define signposts
know what method we are using
alternative scenarios
based on clearly defined uncertainties which will likely cause disruptions
checklist for creating narrative
- have you created a theme that is meaningful and memorable for the reader?
- have you provided clarity on the sequence of events for each scenario? (the “what” element of the story)
- Does your sequence of events include stakeholder influence/action? (the “who” and “why” element of the story)
- do the narratives create distinct outcomes?
brainstorming
“the best way to come up with a good idea is to have lots of ideas”
divergent vs convergent thinking
divergent creates choices
convergent makes choices
divergent thinking uses a comprehensive list to pan out potential implications
IDEO’s rules for brainstorming
- defer judgement
- build on ideas of others
- stay focused on the topic
- one convo at a time
- encourage wild ideas
- go for quantity
- be visual
tool to identify implications- futures wheel
step one: identify a lot of implications (divergent thinking)
step two: make choices and explore for opportunities/collisions (convergent thinking)
