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Foresight > Quiz 2 > Flashcards

Quiz 2 Flashcards

1
Q

Three types of research in foresight intelligence gathering

A
  • background research
    • systems analysis
    • historical analysis
  • trend analysis—>extrapolation
  • uncertainty assessment
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2
Q

mapping the system

A

the process used to “tell the story”

  • articulate system boundaries
  • evaluate stakeholders (interest and influence)
  • identify forces of change
  • outline forces of change assessment
  • use a systems diagram
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3
Q

steps in foresight intelligence gathering

A
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4
Q

background research

A

includes:

  • systems analysis
  • historical analysis
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5
Q

Systems analysis

A

systems mapping

you wonder “why does the system behave the way it does?”

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6
Q

historical analysis

A

timeline mapping because “the further back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see”

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7
Q

event orientation vs systems orientation

A

iceberg metaphor where systems analysis seeks to look beneath the surface at the patterns, trends, structures and mental models to more fully understand cause and effect.

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8
Q

Overall system quality

A
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9
Q

structure

A

a system’s behavior is a function of its structure

  • control based systems
  • agent-based systems

systems can exhibit qualities of one or a mix of both, and they can evolve over time.

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10
Q

control-based systems

A
  • closed
  • command and control
  • rational, more predictable
  • direct causal relations
  • direct feedback
  • explanation and prediction
  • possibility of control
  • cybernetic
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11
Q

agent-based systems

A
  • open
  • grassroots
  • unpredictable
  • no direct causality
  • reciprocal feedback
  • explanation but no prediction
  • surprising, creative, innovative
  • complex-adaptive
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12
Q

articulating system boundaries

A
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13
Q

identifying force of change

A
  • drivers of change
  • constraints of change
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14
Q

forces of change assessment

A
  1. force of change
  2. type and trajectory
  3. impact on status quo
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15
Q

what a systems diagram does

A
  • show and explain stakeholder perspectives
  • identify solutions
  • aid in common understanding
  • encourage strategic thinking
  • communicate complex relationships
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16
Q

Historical analysis

A

what you are looking for in timeline mapping

  • trends
  • eras
  • issues
  • events
17
Q

forecasting- two types

A
  • traditional business forecasting
  • framework/foresight forecasting
18
Q

traditional business forecasting

A
  • short-term horizon
  • focus on continuity
  • hide uncertainty
  • single forecast
  • quantitative techniques
19
Q

framework/foresight forecasting

A
  • long-term horizon
  • focus on discontinuity
  • reveal uncertainty
  • alternative forecasts
  • qualitative and quantitative techniques

Benefits: resilient forecasts of future change, envision futures that do not resemble the past, embraces uncertainty to forecast alternative future scenarios.

20
Q

trend analysis to create a surprise free scenario

A
  • speed
  • trajectory
  • impact

getting the level of complexity right:

  • rough framework for thinking
  • forecasts to a specific number are not required
  • forecasts that are directionally correct are sufficient
21
Q

cone of plausibility

A
22
Q

baseline forecasting

A

Decide on a strategy

  • identify indicators you will use to measure the answer to central question
  • identify indicators that will measure trends impacting topic
  • decide how you will determine the cumulative effect of your trends on forces of change
23
Q

how to determine cumulative effect on trend impact

A

trend projection and prioritization/ranking

  • qualitative analysis
  • regression analysis
24
Q

executing strategy

A
  • gather data for all indicators
  • analyze and forecast trend indicators
  • determine cumulative effect that forces of change have on indicators
  • forecast the indicators used to answer central quesiton
25
Q

conclusions

A

unobservable states, explanations, or forecasts that require support for reasonable people to agree with them.

26
Q

evidence (data points)

A

accepted and undisputed facts

27
Q

assumptions

A

beliefs about the state or dynamics of the world that one must accept in order to support a conclusion

28
Q

logic

A

supports the assumptions you make to reach your conclusion

29
Q

process to develop a defensible forecast

A

evidence, assumptions, logic

30
Q

validity

A

how sound is your research?

the thing being measured is a good approximation of the thing itself

  • internal validity: the causes and effects are accurately measured. and confidence exists in cause and effect relationship (not driven by extraneous factors)
  • external validity: extent to which results can be generalized to other contexts and settings.
31
Q
A

Foresight (2 decks)

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