Quiz 2 Flashcards
Three types of research in foresight intelligence gathering
- background research
- systems analysis
- historical analysis
- trend analysis—>extrapolation
- uncertainty assessment
mapping the system
the process used to “tell the story”
- articulate system boundaries
- evaluate stakeholders (interest and influence)
- identify forces of change
- outline forces of change assessment
- use a systems diagram
steps in foresight intelligence gathering
background research
includes:
- systems analysis
- historical analysis
Systems analysis
systems mapping
you wonder “why does the system behave the way it does?”
historical analysis
timeline mapping because “the further back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see”
event orientation vs systems orientation
iceberg metaphor where systems analysis seeks to look beneath the surface at the patterns, trends, structures and mental models to more fully understand cause and effect.
Overall system quality
structure
a system’s behavior is a function of its structure
- control based systems
- agent-based systems
systems can exhibit qualities of one or a mix of both, and they can evolve over time.
control-based systems
- closed
- command and control
- rational, more predictable
- direct causal relations
- direct feedback
- explanation and prediction
- possibility of control
- cybernetic
agent-based systems
- open
- grassroots
- unpredictable
- no direct causality
- reciprocal feedback
- explanation but no prediction
- surprising, creative, innovative
- complex-adaptive
articulating system boundaries
identifying force of change
- drivers of change
- constraints of change
forces of change assessment
- force of change
- type and trajectory
- impact on status quo
what a systems diagram does
- show and explain stakeholder perspectives
- identify solutions
- aid in common understanding
- encourage strategic thinking
- communicate complex relationships
Historical analysis
what you are looking for in timeline mapping
- trends
- eras
- issues
- events
forecasting- two types
- traditional business forecasting
- framework/foresight forecasting
traditional business forecasting
- short-term horizon
- focus on continuity
- hide uncertainty
- single forecast
- quantitative techniques
framework/foresight forecasting
- long-term horizon
- focus on discontinuity
- reveal uncertainty
- alternative forecasts
- qualitative and quantitative techniques
Benefits: resilient forecasts of future change, envision futures that do not resemble the past, embraces uncertainty to forecast alternative future scenarios.
trend analysis to create a surprise free scenario
- speed
- trajectory
- impact
getting the level of complexity right:
- rough framework for thinking
- forecasts to a specific number are not required
- forecasts that are directionally correct are sufficient
cone of plausibility
baseline forecasting
Decide on a strategy
- identify indicators you will use to measure the answer to central question
- identify indicators that will measure trends impacting topic
- decide how you will determine the cumulative effect of your trends on forces of change
how to determine cumulative effect on trend impact
trend projection and prioritization/ranking
- qualitative analysis
- regression analysis
executing strategy
- gather data for all indicators
- analyze and forecast trend indicators
- determine cumulative effect that forces of change have on indicators
- forecast the indicators used to answer central quesiton
conclusions
unobservable states, explanations, or forecasts that require support for reasonable people to agree with them.
evidence (data points)
accepted and undisputed facts
assumptions
beliefs about the state or dynamics of the world that one must accept in order to support a conclusion
logic
supports the assumptions you make to reach your conclusion
process to develop a defensible forecast
evidence, assumptions, logic
validity
how sound is your research?
the thing being measured is a good approximation of the thing itself
- internal validity: the causes and effects are accurately measured. and confidence exists in cause and effect relationship (not driven by extraneous factors)
- external validity: extent to which results can be generalized to other contexts and settings.
