Quiz #2 Flashcards
what is neoclassical realism?
- primarily focused on anarchy (an indépendant variable)
- secondary: st level & individual level (open up the black box; we want to look within sts & see what impacts st policy preferences. but the world is still controlled by anarchy)
what’s game theory?
think prisoner’s dilemma & stag hunt (a mathematical framework for understanding strategic behavior and predicting outcomes)
security dilemma & ethnic conflict
when offensive & defensive military forces are more or less identical, sts can’t signal their defensive intent - that is, their limited objectives - by the kinds of military forces they choose to deploy
- if offensive operations are more effective, sts will choose the offensive to survive
what happens to the security dilemma (SD) when sts have offensive vs. defensive advantage?
- offensive advantage: SD increases
- defensive advantages: SD decreases
why do wars happen when they’re so costly?
1) st leaders are sometimes/always irrational (they are subject to biases that lead them to neglect the cost)
2) some argue leaders who order war enjoy its benefits but do not pay the costs (citizens are soldiers do)
3) some argue even rational leaders go to war because the expected benefits outweigh the expected costs
what are five possible causes of war? and what’s wrong with the first three?
1) anarchy
2) expected benefits > expected costs
3) rational preventative war
- don’t address what prevents st leaders from bargaining to a settlement that would avoid costs of fighting
4) rational miscalculation due to lack of information
5) rational misinformation or disagreement abt. relative powers
what’s a wanted war?
both sides would prefer the gamble of military conflict over negotiated settlements
what’s a preventative war?
don’t consider whether the rising/declining power could contract a bargain that would leave both sides better off
what’s positive expected utility?
war may happen when both sides estimate expected benefits > expected costs
what’s the security dilemma?
competition sts have more power than needed for security & thus begin to threaten others (those threatened will respond in turn)
what’s ethnic cleansing?
military going after unarmed citizens (offensive tactic)
realism opinion on nuclear weapons
generally not worried abt. the gradual spread of nuclear weapons
- some (Waltz) has made the case that the Middle East would be more stable if Iran had nuclear weapons
- rational deterrence theory
- organizational theory (n-1)
what is organizational theory?
every country that joins the nuclear weapons club makes the world less secure & more dangerous
what is rational deference theory?
mutually assured destruction (like playing chicken)
- bc. both sts understand if they both use nuclear weapons they’ll be destroyed (so therefore, both sts are rational & won’t use the weapons)
