psychology of proof and choice

Question 1

define proof.

Answer 1

evidence or argument establishing a fact or the truth of a statement.

Question 2

state tasks related to proof.

Answer 2

• explanation
• diagnosis
• prediction
• imagination

Question 3

state types of inference.

Answer 3

• deduction (specific)
• induction (general)
• abduction (best explanation available)

Question 4

state ways the mind undertakes deduction.

Answer 4

• structure (form)
• semantics (function)
• statistics (frequency)

Question 5

define an assumption.

Answer 5

individuals draw conclusions from premises by applying stored rules of logic to derive a single valid inference.

Question 6

classical syllogisms, conditional inferences and transitive inferences are all types of…

Answer 6

inferences.

Question 7

define formal logic.

Answer 7

use of syntactic structure (form) to determine the validity of an argument.

Question 8

describe natural deduction in terms of direct inferences and indirect inferences.

Answer 8

direct - when p or q are held in memory, then conclusion q follows.
indirect - when ‘if p then q’ and ‘not q’ are held in memory, ‘not p’ is inferred by applying inference rules.

Question 9

describe Wason’s selection task.

Answer 9

• set of cards, letter and number on each side
• test truth telling rule
• e.g “if card has D on one side, it has a five on the other”

Question 10

describe inferences as searching for mental models.

Answer 10

• inferences are drawn by searching mental representations for possibilities that have no counter-examples.
• construction of and search for models is constructed by:
  = principle of truth
  = working memory capacity

Question 11

describe the difference between kinds of logically equivalent conditional statements, using the plane crash example.

Answer 11

conditional - “if the plane crashes the pilot dies”

disjunction - “either plane doesn’t crash or pilot dies”

Question 12

true or false: evaluation is easier than generation.

Answer 12

false - generation is easier.

Question 13

define the statistical view.

Answer 13

P (H/D)

Question 14

information gain leads to a reduction in…

Answer 14

uncertainty.

Question 15

define the concept of rarity.

Answer 15

most events/things are rare compared with the number of instances where they don’t occur (e.g. plane crashes)

Question 16

describe the two dual system accounts.

Answer 16

system one - heuristic, pragmatic = recognition-driven, effortless.
system two - analytic, logical = inference-driven, effortful.

Question 17

state the types of choice.

Answer 17

reducing uncertainty:
- diagnostic hypothesis testing
- prediction
choosing between alternatives

Question 18

describe normative/ prescriptive models.

Answer 18

expected value - higher resource value = objective value* probability
expected utility - highest psychological value = subjective utility* probability.

Question 19

give an example of an expected utility example .

Answer 19

raining / does not rains

take umbrella / do not take umbrella

Question 20

give the statistic for expected utility example.

Answer 20

EU(A) = PA(o)U(o).

Question 21

describe the editing and evaluation of the prospect theory.

Answer 21

editing - selecting desired outcomes against a reference point via heuristics.
evaluation - value judgement based on calculation of anticipated utilities X probabilities.

Question 22

define loss aversion.

Answer 22

• faced with a risky choice leading to gains = individuals are risk-averse, preferring solutions that lead to a lower expected utility but with a higher certainty.
• faced with a risky choice leading to losses = individuals are risk-seeking, preferring solutions that lead to a lower expected utility, if potential to avoid losses.
• probability weighting = attribute excessive weight to events with low probabilities and insufficient weight to events with high probability.

Question 23

describe representativeness.

Answer 23

which issue is the most probable.

Question 24

describe anchoring.

Answer 24

individual depends on an initial piece of information (anchor) to make subsequent judgments.

Question 25

define pseudodiagnosticity.

Answer 25

belief that more information about current hypothesis is most diagnostic choice.

Question 26

define availability.

Answer 26

human tendency to think that examples of things that come readily to mind are more representative than is actually the case.

Question 27

define prospect reversals.

Answer 27

between two choices , choose one, then drop it for the other one.

Question 28

describe results of Ball et al manipulations.

Answer 28

• no effect of transparency of bet values (not anchoring effect)
• no effect of selling vs gift treatment (no loss aversion effect)

Question 29

preference reversal may result from switching between…

Answer 29

system one and system two processes.