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Charlie's mental models > Psychology > Flashcards

Psychology Flashcards

1
Q

Circle of competence

A

Know what you don’t know and leverage others to move on

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2
Q

Risk/reward

A

Up/down ratio

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3
Q

Incentives

A

What to give to get what you want and how to align incentives?

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4
Q

Evolution

A

Caveman syndrome

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5
Q

Outside view

A

Your perception (or fundamentals) vs others (markets, others or outside view)

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6
Q

Pre-Mortem

A

Assume failure and understand it

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7
Q

Value of reputation / brands

A

The most valuable and easiest to destroy, power of brands, cannot be easily recreated with any capital

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8
Q

Agency costs

A

Incentives bias, granny’s rule of eating carrots before sweets

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9
Q

Living/loving

A

Attachment and mistake ignorance, but also a joy of being loved and pestered

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10
Q

Disliking/hating

A

Reverse of loving/liking

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11
Q

Doubt avoidance

A

Driven by puzzlement and stress avoidance

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12
Q

Inconsistency bias

A

Status who, change residence

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13
Q

Curiosity

A

Progress driver after formal education is over

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14
Q

Kantian fairness

A

Courtesy driving modern societies

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15
Q

Envy/jealousy tendency

A

And it’s a taboo to say it openly

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16
Q

Reciprocation

A

Small ask more successful after a big failed ask, giveaways/steps, negative reciprocity best combatted by postponing

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17
Q

Influence of a mere association

A

Trend not for all individual cases, bad messenger syndrome, radical open mindedness

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18
Q

Pain avoidance

A

Avoiding and not seeing unpleasantries

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19
Q

Excess self regard

A

Loss of objectivity about yourself surrounding people and things

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20
Q

Overoptimism

A

Think in probabilities

21
Q

Deprivation superreaction

A

Especially when just received a reward (consider it similarly owned as if long term)

22
Q

Contrast misreaction

A

Small leak in a boat will sink it. Low end powerful disruption

23
Q

Stress influence

A

Too much stress leads to a break, a bit of stress leads to outperformance, those tough to break once broken are much harder to revert

24
Q

Availability bias

A

Something isn’t superior because it’s easily available

25
Q

Use it or lose it

A

Sharpening the saw

26
Q

Drug abuse

A

Avoiding large negative optionality

27
Q

Senescence effect

A

Massive NPV by getting hard things done early in life vs preference for short term gains

28
Q

Authority misinfluence

A

Boss may not be objective, don’t lose objectivity/opinion based on hierarchy / when boss is watching

29
Q

Empty talk

A

Just don’t

30
Q

Reason respecting

A

Give “WHY” to have followers even for filling decisions

31
Q

Loollapalooza

A

Confluence

32
Q

False precision

A

Don’t be fooled by made up numbers

33
Q

Reverse thinking

A

Reverse the flow of thinking to prove that the opposite is true or false to tackle hard questions

34
Q

Creative destruction

A

Getting to the next level by destroying and recreating (Netflix DVD)

35
Q

Gamblers fallacy

A

Belief that future probabilities depend on past outcomes

36
Q

Winners curse

A

Winner in an auction overpays and often is the loser (Comcast unless winner specific synergies)

37
Q

Disposition effect

A

Selling winners and keeping losers instead of reverse

38
Q

Loss aversion

A

Sub-optimal risk taking based on biases

39
Q

Probabilities

A

Positive and negative optionality (3:2 payout with 1:1 odds)

40
Q

Base rate neglect

A

What base rate will give the effect and whether it’s sensible

41
Q

Reversion to mean

A

Normalisation, cyclicality unless the pattern breaks

42
Q

Law of big numbers

A

In large samples expect normal distribution

43
Q

Bell curve

A

70% of outcomes within one standard deviation, 95% in 2 sigma and 99% in 3 sigma

44
Q

Causality vs correlation

A

Is the effect purely statistical?

45
Q

Extremes

A

Testing on extreme to get the best insight

46
Q

Travel & arrive

A

Buddha said it’s best to travel well than to arrive (sell the news given how much is priced in during the travel)

47
Q

Misconception of chance (law of small vs large numbers & gambler’s fallacy)

A

If it’s a chance outcome (you cannot lose on purpose) the probabilities are independent from each other, not influenced by past pattern and do not extrapolate / explain in small samples

48
Q

Power of irrational belief

A

If you think you can you can, if you think you can’t you can’t

49
Q

Signalling types

A
  • actual (teal or fake - B. Mimicry)
  • Bayesian mimicry (pretending you’re possess something you don’t)
  • oversignalling (negative - insecure, desperate)
  • countersignalling (signalling the opposite as you don’t have to prove/signal)

Charlie's mental models (11 decks)

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