Problem structuring methods Flashcards
What is considered in the divergent phase of a Decision- making process? And what are the methods called?
Stakeholders? Decision-makers? Objectives and values? Ideas and views? Uncertainties? Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs)
What is considered in the convergent phase of a Decision- making process? And what are the methods called?
Type of evaluation? Objectives? Alternatives? Performances? Trade-offs? Probabilities of outcomes? Risk attributes? Decision Analysis (DA)
Why do we need to structure problems?
Real world problems are ofter messy and complex
You can not think and talk about a problem without ascribing one or more owners to it
Different people have different perspectives about the same system.
Things in real world ofter change over time- They are dynamic.
What questions are to be answered when structuring a problem?
What doo we care about?
What are our options?
What are the risks?
What are problem structuring methods?
A family of methods for supporting decisions for groups of diverse composition within a complex environment to agree a problem focus and make commitments to a series of actions.
To what type of problems are PSMs applied and what characterizes them?
Unstructured problems characterized by multiple actors, multiple perspectives, conflicting interests and high levels of uncertainty.
What are the musts for PSMs?
Elable alternative perspectives to be considered with each other, be transparent to a range of participants, operate iteratively and allow contingent solutions.
What is the aim of PSMs?
Aim is to provide a structure of thinking about what a problem is. PSMs structure can be an end in itself.
PSMs sources came where claims are shared, contested, defended etc.
What are the key characteristics of PSMs?
-Techniques to facilitate exploration/ definition of a problem situation
-Group based
Uncovering options
-Enabling group action
-Accepting uncertainty/ alternative scenarios or versions of the situation
-Managing conflict
-Facilitator - Analyst
-Generating construntive improvements
What is SODA?
Strategic Options Development and Analysis. Selecting a process.
What are the four interacting perspectinves that SODA is based on?
- Personal construct theory. (capture how the individual’s perspective of the problem in a cognitive map)
- Nature of organization.
- Nature of consulting practice
- Technology and technique.
How is a cognitive map structured?
Like a triangle. On the bottom Options (greater delegation is authority). Then consequences (Local representation). Then values in the top (Improve level of service).
What is the structure of a Tear drop?
top: Goals or disasterous outcomes
middle: Issues or possible strategies
bottom: More detailed options
Arrows go from Means->End, Option->Desired Outcome
If possible get rid of questions.
How does SSM work?
Soft system Methodology. {Real world} Enter situation->Express the problem situation->{System} Formulate root definitions->Build conceptual models->{Real world} Compare models with real world->Define possible changes which are both desirable and feasible. ->Take action to improve the problem situation
What is AIDA?
Analysis of interconnected Decision Areas. See how decision within different areas are connected and which ones are incompatible.
What are the pros of PSM?
- Problem structuring
- Gathering information, generating ideas
- Retain flexibility in early stages
- Demonstrate understanding of complexity, diversity and inconsistency
- Prioritising and simplifying
What are the cons of PSM?
- Method development required
- Methods need to be adapted to the context
- New skills
- Ownership
- Facilitation of group decision making
- Reproducibility
Where is the turning point from Problem structuring to model structuring?
When it becomes clear to the decision analyst which type of decision-aiding model will be more adequate for value analysis in the specific context.
What are two bacis model-structuring strategies?
Bottom-up (alternative focused thinking)
Top-Down (Value focused
How does bottom-up method of model structuring work?
Bottom-up (alternative focused thinking)
- Define a set of options
- Analyse the characteristics of these options (find the relevant ones)
- Find out the key objectives
How does Top-down work?
Value-focused thinking:
- Define objectives
- Seperate means from ends objectives
- Indentify fundamental objectives
- Find options as means to achieve the objectives.
How do you identify the evaluation criteria?
- Start model structuring bu a broad discussion of key issues.
- Values emerge during the discussion either as objectives or characteristics relevant for the analysis.
- They should be well defined and percieved by all the key players to avoid ambiguity and misunderstanding.
- Seperate means-objectives from end objectives.
- Structure them in a criteria value tree
What are the desirable properties for a good set of fundamental objectives?
- Consensual, and therefore
-exhaustive, but also
-concise and non-redundant, and
-decomposable, which requires:
*each criterion is measurable and operational
*the criteria are mutually perferential independent
In the context in which options are to be evaluated.
What is cardinal independence?
Additive aggregation requires that such an isolate evaluation axis, that is mutual cardinal independence to hold (ordinal independence is not enough)
How do you measure the extent to which evaluation criteria can be achieved?
Associate with each criterion a descriptor of performance, that is: A qualitative or quantitative measure of the extent to which the criterion can be satisfied.
