Problem Solving

Question 1

POACT

Answer 1

Problem
Objectives
Alternatives
Consequences
Trade offs

Question 2

Problem

Answer 2

What triggers problem? 
State problem
Identify essential elements 
Stair stepping to point of certainty 
Impact other decisions 
Scope of problem

Question 3

Objectives

Answer 3

Stating objectives:

• Help determine what info to seek
• Determine the importance of time and effort
• Write down concepts you hope to address:
  - Wish list
  - Worst/Best Cases
  
  • Impact on others
  • What’s not feasible

Question 4

Alternatives

Answer 4

Use objectives and ask HOW?
Challenge constraints to your alternatives
Set high aspirations
Think through your alternatives before consulting others
Learn from past experience
Then ask others for suggestions

Question 5

Consequences

Answer 5

List consequence of each alternative
Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives

Question 6

Tradeoffs

Answer 6

Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others
Then swap between alternatives using priorities
Value incremental improvements

Question 7

Uncertainties

Answer 7

What are key uncertainties?
What are possible outcomes of these uncertainties?
What are the consequences of each outcome?
-Probabilities
-Decision Trees
-Weighted value chart

Question 8

Risk Tolerance

Answer 8

How much risk do you want to handle?
How much are others affected by your decision?
Quantify the risks, if possible
Seek to lessen the risk but avoid overly optimistic
How can you reduce risks?

Question 9

Psychological Trap

Answer 9

Working on wrong problem
Failing to identify key objectives
Too few good, creative alternatives 
Overlooking crucial consequences 
Giving inadequate thought to trade offs 
Failure to see/plan for long range consequences

Question 10

Traps for groups/teams

Answer 10

Allowing the loudest most senior person to control the decisions
Allowing the most articulate to frame decision
Self interest over what’s best for the firm
Lack of objectivity

Question 11

6 Criteria for Effective Thinking

Answer 11

Focus on what is important 
Be logical and consistent 
Acknowledge objective and subjective factors 
Do not gather too much information
Try to reach consensus 
Straightforward