Probability

Question 1

Bayes rule

Answer 1

• P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B)

- P(B) = sum(P(Bnx))

Question 2

What is a qualification problem?

Answer 2

• A problem which we have seen no real solution.
• For example the problem of the automated taxi that has the goal of delivering a passenger to the airport on time. There is no solution that can guarantee that the passenger gets on time.

Question 3

Uncertainty and rational decisions

Answer 3

• To make such choices, an agent must first have preferences between the different pos- sible outcomes of the various plan
• We use utility theory to represent and reason with preferences.
• Remember the airport example where the guy has to arrive on time

Question 4

decision theory

Answer 4

• Preferences, as expressed by utilities, are combined with probabilities
• The fundamental idea of decision theory is that an agent is rational if and only if it chooses the action that yields the highest expected utility, averaged over all the possible outcomes of the action
• maximum expected utility (MEU)