PP3 - Economic Growth + AD Flashcards

1
Q

sources of eg

A
  • Quality of labour / Entrepreneurs ( Human Capital )
  • Increases in investment ( via AD )
  • Improved factors of production efficiency / Technology
  • Favourable institutional features ( Govt, Banking )
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2
Q

major sources

A

I - int competitiveness
G - government policies
A - aggregate demand

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3
Q

Percentage of AUS aggregate demand

A

C = 55%
I = 18%
G = 25%
( X - M ) = 2%

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4
Q

Percentage of China AD:

A

C = 35+%
I = 12%
G = 50%
( X - M ) = 3%
X = 3.5
M = 2.5

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5
Q

increases to consumption

A
  • National income ↑
  • Domestic savings decrease
  • Increase overseas borrowing
  • Unsustainable if consumption growth fuelled by access to easy consumer credit
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6
Q

increases to government spending

A
  • countercyclical
  • Spending via discretionary fiscal policy ( budget ) and non-discretionary automatic stabilisers
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7
Q

increases in investment

A
  • Encouraged by AD > Output and higher consumption
  • Take advantage of increased efficiencies and technological change
    Long-term investment ie: $400B housing investment in progress
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8
Q

net export increases

A
  • Encouraged by stronger world economy ( China + EU )
  • Increased INT competitiveness + stronger exchange rate
  • Stronger AUS economy → increases in imports ( higher SOL )
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9
Q

international competitiveness

A

Degree of ability for Australian exports and import competing firms to compete against foreign producers.

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10
Q

Factors of international competitiveness

A

P - Productivity
Q - Quality
R - retail Price ( Fx rates, inflation, costs )
S - Service

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11
Q

int comp sources from - higher productivity

A

Capital deepening + Higher productivity → lower average costs + higher incomes → increased efficiencies + int comp

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12
Q

depreciating currency + int comp

A

encourages dom prod –> cheaper exports –> increase exports
- Can devalue currency in downturn to stimulate growth

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13
Q

macroeconomic reform

A
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Monetary Policy
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14
Q

EG + AS

A
  • increase in AS will lead to an increase in output at lower prices
  • This will lessen inflationary pressures from increases in aggregate demand
    Increase AS results in EG without inflationary pressures
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15
Q

positive effects of EG - nation

A

Environment ( greater level of protection )
Exports ( greater export income )
Poverty → lower poverty rates

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16
Q

positive effect of EG - government

A

Taxation ( increased taxation )
Spending ( less UE spending ) → larger surplus, long term infrastructure + investment projects

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17
Q

positive effect of EG –> households

A

Income ( higher real per capita income )
consumption ( increasing SOL )
savings ( higher levels of dom. savings )
Leisure ( increased quality of life )
Employment ( creation of employment )

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18
Q

postive effects of eg –> firms

A

Productivity growth ( LABOUR )
Technological progress ( Capital )
Investment ( To meet growing demand )

19
Q

negative effect of EG –> external stability

A

Increases Imports → worsens CAD + Foreign Liability
Liability growth OK if for investment and purchase of capital goods
Higher borrowing increase borrowing costs
International Competitiveness hurt if increases in AD increases inflation ( Offset by decrease AUD )

20
Q

negative effect of EG –> enviro

A

Pollutes natural ecosystem
Depletes non-renewable resources
Externalities - pollution, overcrowding

21
Q

negative effect of EG –> equitable distribution of Income

A

Widens gaps between rich and poor
Social costs of inequality
Regional inequality

22
Q

negative effect of EG –> employment

A

Structural UE
Declining industries
Capital investment
Self Esteem

23
Q

negative effect of EG –> price stability

A
  • ↑ AD, ↑ demand pull inflation
  • ↑ employment ↑ Cost Push Inflation
    -↑ EG ↑ Inflationary Expectations
  • ↑ Imports ↓ AUD ↑ Import Inflation
24
Q

EG 1990-2000

A
  • Post-recession that needed to happen, growth averaged 3-3.7%
    driven by productivity growth
25
Q

2000-2008 EG

A
  • 3.0-4.0%
    driven by China’s demand for coal and iron ore
  • resources boom
26
Q

2008-2009

A

growth slowed to 1% due to gfc
avoided technical recession due to kevin rudd 52B discretionary fiscal stimulus

27
Q

2010-2012

A
  • Renewed resources investment boom 3.0%+. Peak in mining and investment $25B
28
Q

2013-2015 Global Uncertainty

A

slow global growth recovery driven US ( QE ended ), Euro still ( brexit, greece )

29
Q

2018-2019 EG

A
  • Boosted Export Earnings due to pumped-up commodity prices
  • 2018 - iron ore rose from US$60/ton to US$150/ton ) + bumper wheat crop
  • End of construction phase of Australia’s mining boom simultaneously cuts need for imports
  • Balance of payments CA moved to surplus ( INELASTIC strong commodity pisces + demand )
  • Record low interest rates → CAS move to 3.4% by 2020
30
Q

2019 - secular stagnation

A

Economic Growth in Australia is characterised by weak growth in consumer spending, in business investment and on productivity improvement
Low price inflation + wage growth
Low real interest rates

31
Q

stagflation

A

Rapid decrease in Aggregate Supply, leads to high unemployment combined with high inflation

32
Q

EG: start of 2020

A

Resources booms are over. – - Australia expects growth 3-4%.
- Sourced from:
China: Slowing growth, ‘ rebalancing ‘ focus on domestic consumption from rising middle class and export growth.
Japan: Push for growth, strong QE policy, sharp rise in fiscal spending structural reform ( inflexibility + population problems ). Regional tensions ( N. Korea )
USA: Signs of recovery ( eco. Growth + falling UE ), ended QE ( $85B a month ), tightening MP ( USA’s FED FUNDS RATE low 0.25-2.5% )

33
Q

2020-2021 covid EG

A
  • 1st 2 Quarters of Negative EG: -0.3% and -7.0%
  • 2020 annualised at -1.1%
  • Fiscal Policy discretionary stimulus of $200B:
  • Jobkeeper: ( 1500 fortnight ), $90B in each year
  • Jobseeker: ( 750 fortnighter ), prior New Start ( $550 )
  • Mandated lockdown prevented consumption in shops + restaurants
    ‘ Pent Up ‘ Demand rebounded upon re-opening
34
Q

2021-2022: Covid Government Response

A
  • EG rate @ 2.7% in 2022
  • Growth boosted by end of lockdown, rebound in consumer spending ( 6.3% formerly 4.8% in Q3 2021 )
  • Govt spending growth eased ( 3.8% –> 0.1% after $200B jobseeker/keeper stimulus )
  • trade balance contributed negatively
    –> exports fell 1.5%
    –> imports dropped 0.9%
35
Q

2023

A

EG : 1.5%
Infl: 4.1%
UE: 4.1%

36
Q

future EG - Goods + resources:

A

GOODS - RESOURCES:
Lessening Coal and Iron Ore
Rise in LNG
%20B + investment so far and expect to export $100B by 2025 ( korea, japan, taiwan )

37
Q

future EG: services

A
  • increase in services tourism from asian market
  • Expect Chinese visitors double from 700,000 in 2013 and export dollars to rise from 4B to 10B by 2025
38
Q

future EG: Investment

A

End in mining investment spending → growth in LNG investment
Capital accumulation in place → higher levels of commodity exports
Fall in imports of capital G+S for mining will improve trade balance
Growth in public/private infrastructure

39
Q

future of bogs

A
  • Growth in Exports ( LNG, Rural ).
  • Fall in imports of capital goods for mining sector
  • Imports of consumer goods remain constrained due to cost of living crisis
    BOGS STAYS IN SURPLUS
40
Q

future of PY

A
  • Fall in investment inflows due to end of mining boom + near completion of LNG projects
  • Govt debt eventually rises
    Rising interest rates in EU + US due to inflation
    CONSEQUENCE: Rising NPYD Debits
41
Q

Economic Growth and 3 P’s:

A

driven by 3Ps
Population
Participation
Productivity

42
Q

okuns law

A

The rate of economic growth must exceed the contribution of productivity growth and growth in the workforce for the UE rate to fall.

43
Q

OKUNS LAW

A

Target: 3-4%
Prior to covid: < 3.33%
Covid Recession: -03% –> -7.0%
2022 annual: 2.7% ( $90B annual jobkeeper, 300B in spending during covid )
2023 Quarterly and Annual: 0.6, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, + 1.5%
GFC: +1% ( 52B Kevin Rudd )