Power and Developments

Question 1

Hard Power

Answer 1

Hard power is coercive power, involving the more physical elements of military and economic power (forms of command power).

Hard power uses methods to compel other nation states into obedience to its will.

Question 2

Joseph Nye on Hard Power

Answer 2

“The ability to use the carrots and sticks of economic and military might to make others follow your will”

Question 3

What is a recent and relevant example of military power coercing action?

Answer 3

Annexation of Crimea –> The international community could not respond as Russia is a nuclear power

Question 4

How can economic power coerce action?

Recent/ Relevant examples?

Answer 4

Through sanctions or the threat of sanctions, this is significant as states economies are so interlinked. Aid, America can threaten to withdraw aid.

e.g. Sanctions against Russia post Crimea

Question 5

Why do realists favour hard power?

Answer 5

This is because realists view nation states as egotistical. In the resulting anarchic world system, the most effective way of achieving your objectives is thus through hard power because that is the only effective way of deterring the aggressive impulses of other states and so resolving the ‘security dilemma’ in your favour.

Question 6

Questioning the relevance of hard power:

Military

Answer 6

–> strength declining in significance and impact

e.g. Despite the USA’s military supremacy, it was unable to secure a victory in Vietnam, and struggled in Afghanistan

Question 7

Questioning the relevance of hard power:

Public opinions

Answer 7

e.g. The USA’s reliance on hard power has arguably discredited the nation and led to disillusionment with its foreign policy

Question 8

Overview of the declining significance of hard power

Answer 8

• However, arguably these exceptions rather than the rule
• Arguably it would be premature to label hard power redundant

–> Nonetheless, it may be declining in significance and legitimacy

Question 9

Why is the USA widely regarded as the powerful state in the world?

Answer 9

• The USA is widely regarded as the most powerful state in the world, due to its

• -> Unrivalled military power
• -> Huge global reach
• -> Large, well-funded, well-equipped
• -> Nuclear power
• -> Aircraft carriers - to protect power
• -> Can achieve air supremacy - control of the skies

Question 10

Factors that determine a state’s power:

Answer 10

• Alliances
• Economic Power
• Cultural influences
• Structural influences

Question 11

Factors that determine a state’s power:

Alliances

Answer 11

→ Project power - numerous military sites around the world
→ NATO - collective security
→ Diplomatic strength

Question 12

Factors that determine a state’s power:

Economic power

Answer 12

→ Often measured by GDP, but also other factors
→ Can use their economic power in the form of sanctions - carry incredible weight

e.g. USA
→ Largest economy in the world

Question 13

Factors that determine a state’s power:

Cultural influences

Answer 13

Cultural Influence
→ A state’s global outreach

e.g. USA
→ Use media to promote western values

Question 14

Factors that determine a state’s power:

Structural Power

Answer 14

Structural Power
→ The ability to influence other states through IGOs

USA:

• Bretton Wood Institutions:
• World Bank, IMF, WTO - lion share of voting right
• UN - P5 veto power

Question 15

Soft Power

Answer 15

• The ability to influence other actors by persuading them to follow or agree to norms and aspirations that produce desired behaviour.

Question 16

“Globalisation has limited the impact of soft power”

- explain why this is wrong

Answer 16

Globalisation, interdependence and technological innovation have increased the significance of soft power.

Question 17

Joseph Nye on soft power

Answer 17

“Soft Power is everything from Hollywood to Harvard”

“When one country gets other countries to want what it wants”

Question 18

Great Powers

Answer 18

• States which have global interests and global influence.

–> Having some influence over the major intergovernmental institutions.

e.g. UK has a permanent place on the UNSC

• States will have a formidable military and economic might and will often be nuclear powers.

Question 19

Super Powers

Answer 19

• Powers which have global interests and are able to dominate global affairs rather than merely influencing them.
–> America having a plurality of the voting power of the Bretton Woods institutions

• Unrivalled economic and military might
• Must play a pivotal strategic role within a sphere of influence (willing to lead)
• Must have nuclear weapons
• It should be able to assert its global influence anywhere in the world at any time
• It will possess a world view and the willingness to proactively enforce that world view in international relations (e.g. humanitarian interventions)
• States must have global reach

Question 20

Why America is arguably a superpower

Answer 20

• $596 billion spent on its military
–> 1/3 of the worlds military spending

• China has the largest standing army in the world, BUT:

• -> America comes 3rd with 1.3 million troops
• -> The US has a global presence with around 200,000 active troops deployed in more than 170 countries
• America has the highest number of aircraft carriers
• America is willing and able to project power globally
• -> US has a large presence in Europe, particularly in Germany.
• -> US has a large presence in Japan.
• -> US has a large presence around the Persian Gulf.

Question 21

Balance of power

• description
• realist belief

Answer 21

• Description –> how power is distributed
• Realists argue that states try to maintain a balance of power, as one state tries to increase its power other states will respond accordingly, preventing one state from becoming too powerful, responding to the security dilemma.

Question 22

Bipolarity:

During the Cold War:

Answer 22

2 centres of power  USA and USSR
Both were Superpowers  Significantly greater hard power than any other state
Equally matched
Competing for dominance  A nuclear arms race

Question 23

Neo- Realist view on bipolarity

Answer 23

Neo Realists such as Kenneth Waltz believe that cold war bipolarity actually had some positive features because:

As states behave rationally, conflict could be avoided as in a bipolar era as they both have equal power it doesn’t serve the interest of one to enter into conflict with another as it would result in mutually assured destruction. The chance for miscalculation with bipolarity is much lower as you only have to worry about 1 other state, you know who your enemies are.

Question 24

What is the liberal view of bipolarity?

Answer 24

On the other hand, liberals fear the instability of bipolarity as it fosters distrust and suspicion.

The rest of the world is held hostage in a “balance of terror”.

–> Liberals believe that the peace in bipolarity is very artificial and not meaningful.

Liberals fear how the power of IGOs become redundant as they value IGOs as key forums for peace and cooperation.

The reliance on hard power is seen as illegitimate, they reject the power politics of realism.
Actually, the chance of miscalculation is high, far higher than neo-realists realise

Question 25

Different systems of government:

- Democratic features

Answer 25

Democratic

• Free, fair and frequent elections
• Rule of law
• Accountability
• Effective scrutiny

–> UK

Question 26

Systems of government

semi-democratic states

Answer 26

Semi-Democratic states

• Elections, though not as free, fair and frequent
• A degree of repression of liberties e.g. freedom of speech, assembly

–> Russia

Question 27

Systems of government

Autocratic states

Answer 27

Autocratic states

• Very limited meaningful popular participation
• Few checks on power
• Very limited protection of human rights

–> China

Question 28

Advantages of democratisation:

- Democratic peace theory

Answer 28

The democratic peace theory according to Immanuel Kant is that democracies are more peaceful than non-democracies. This is because checks and balances hold the government to account, war mongering leaders are likely to be ousted. There is a market place for ideas, open debates and discussions which leads to open scrutiny. Democracies also tend to be wealthier and war is costly, so they would want to avert this.

Question 29

Rogue State definition

examples

Answer 29

A state that is perceived to be a threat to stability.

North Korea, Iran and Syria

Question 30

Rogue state characteristics

Answer 30

• An aggressive foreign policy
• Willingness to violate international law
• Unauthorised holding of nuclear weapons
• Support for terrorist groups
• Abuse of human rights
• Almost always authoritarian

Question 31

Problems with the term Rogue state?
–> (always ask: cui bono?) who benefits?

example

Answer 31

• Who has the right to apply it?
• A pretext to justify US foreign policy?
• Inconsistent applications?

–> Some argue that the term is used to justify intervention in that state by another state often in pursuit of their own self-interest

E.g. some argue that the USAs identifying of Iraq as a Rogue state was a cover for the USAs self-interest in gaining access to Iraqi oil reserves and a key power base in the Middle East

Question 32

Nature of nuclear weapons

Answer 32

Colossal destruction capability
–> Collateral damage

Act of a deterrent
–> Built never to be used?

Not “normal”
–> Raise moral questions?

Question 33

“The Nuclear Club” = signatories of the Non-Proliferation (spread) Treaty

Answer 33

USA, Russia, China, UK, France

Question 34

The Nuclear Club” = non-signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty who have nuclear weapons

Answer 34

India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel

Question 35

Failed states (fragile states)
\+ examples

Answer 35

A state whose political or economic system has become so weak that the government is no longer in control.

e.g. Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen and the Central African Republic.

Question 36

Failed state/fragile state/ weak states:

Why can the term be problematic?

Answer 36

There is no agreed upon definition and one may argue this term is used arbitrary manner/ applied inconsistently.

Question 37

Failed states

factors?

Answer 37

• They are often poor and underdeveloped
• Weak political institutions
• Whether the citizens look upon the government as legitimate
• They are predominately in Africa and the middle east

Question 38

Failed states

Consequences for world order?

Answer 38

• They can become safe havens for terrorist groups
• States might descend into violent civil war
• The state may collapse, and its weapons might fall into the hands of terrorist groups (e.g. Pakistan has nuclear weapons)
• They can trigger refugee crises and humanitarian interventions.

Question 39

failed/fragile states case study: Venezuela

- What happened

Answer 39

On January 23 Juan Guido declared himself acting president because the actual president Nicolas Maduro is said to be illegitimate.

Maduro imprisoned many of his opponents before the election in May meaning that he was elected president for a second term.

Guido argued that under the Venezuelan constitution the head of the National Assembly (Guido) take over as president, in such cases.

President Trump recognised Guido as the interim president of Venezuela

Question 40

failed/fragile states case study: Venezuela

- What are the biggest challenges facing Venezuela?

Answer 40

By the end of 2018, prices were doubling every 19 days on average, leaving many Venezuelans struggling to afford basic items.

The annual inflation rate reached 1,300,000% in the 12 months to November 2018 and the IMF forecast for 2019 is 10million%.

Many people are leaving Venezuela with the UN estimating that three million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014.

Question 41

failed/fragile states case study: Venezuela

- How and why might Venezuela meet the criteria for a fragile state?

Answer 41

Venezuela does not currently have one effective government as there is a power dispute.

The government they do have cannot provide basic services to its citizens.

There is a mass exodus from Venezuela, suggesting that people do not want to be there anymore.

This can lead to resentment from other states due to the influx of migrants which means more competition for jobs.

Combination of both an oppressive and weak government

Question 42

Effectiveness of hard power:

- it remains effective

Answer 42

The response to acts of terrorism has been military force.
–> e.g. airstrikes on ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Economic globalisation makes state war too costly so states compete through trade rather than war.
–> For example, China has committed $74bn in aid since 2000 to strengthen its grip of Africa’s natural resources.

Realists see the world in terms of sovereign states aiming to guarantee their own survival, with military force as their ultimate instrument.
–> e.g. Trumps policy of “peace through strength” calling for an extra $54bn for tanks, ships and weapons systems in his first budget.

Question 43

Effectiveness of hard power:

- It no longer remains effective

Answer 43

The use of military power has damaged the credibility and international standing of states that employ it.
–> e.g. the collapse of the USA’s international reputation after Afghanistan and Iraq which led to a policy shift under Obama.

Military conflict by stronger states against states with less capabilities have proved difficult to win due to the strategies of guerilla warfare and terrorism
–> E.g. the issues faced by the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan

Economic sanctions only work on smaller countries seeking access to the global economy.
–> e.g. Sanctions on North Korea have impacted their population but not their foreign policy/ pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Question 44

Arguments that soft power is effective

Answer 44

In a world of complex interdependence, goals are better achieved through cooperation, not conflict.

The free flow of information and communication across borders means people are increasingly informed about foreign cultures and values, which they can compare against their own.

The spread of democracy. education standards and literacy increases the tendency, especially as democracies operate on the soft power of consensus and persuasion.

Question 45

Arguments that soft power is not as effective

Answer 45

Hard power is able to undermine soft power.
e.g. The US was in Iraq undermined US soft power and increased anti-American sentiment. It alienated moderate Muslim opinion and has been linked to the spread of terrorism.

Soft power has been challenged as some goals can arguably only be achieved through hard power.
e.g. stopping North Korea from developing Nuclear Weapons
Terrorists are unlikely to be persuaded via soft power.

Soft power is difficult to use as it can only promote not control popular culture.

Question 46

Smart power
what is it?
+ example

Answer 46

Smart power is a combination of both soft and hard power and choosing the right tools for each specific situation.

E.g. Obama used smart power
–> In the case of Iran his administration used damaging economic sanctions, diplomacy and direct attempts from Obama to reach out to the Iranian public to bring about the Iran Nuclear Deal, which restricted Irans Nuclear programme.

Question 47

Emerging powers

Answer 47

Emerging powers refer to states that are emerging as powerful modern economies. These states are becoming more economically important within the global market and are starting to be more assertive in the institutions of global governance.

Question 48

BRICS
what are they?
who are they?
what % of the pop do they account for?
what % of the global GDP do they account for?
what % of global trade do they account for?

Answer 48

the BRICS countries are an example of emerging powers.

They are:
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

together these countries represent 46% of the planet’s population and account for 19.8% of global GDP and 16.9% of global trade.

Question 49

Polarity

Answer 49

Polarity describes the number of significant states within the international system, and how this impacts on the behaviour of other states.

Question 50

Unipolarity/ hagemony

+ example

Answer 50

Unipolarity refers to a global distribution of power in which there is just one dominant power. No other power can match its global influence and so that power can be referred to as the ‘global hegemon’.

e.g. the USA following the collapse of the USSR

Question 51

Multipolarity

+ example

Answer 51

An international system where there are three or more poles

e.g. this existed before WW2

Question 52

Positive consequences of unipolarity on the world order

Answer 52

According to the hegemonic stability theory imbalanced power can produce peace as one side has so much power that no one dare attack it.

The global hegemon can the act as the enforcer, protecting the political framework that supports the global market, prevents wars and humanitarian crises in the interest of all states, but most importantly themselves.

Question 53

The 1990s- The US unipolar moment

Answer 53

In the 1990s, the United States’ unparalleled economic, military and diplomatic outreach, together with the popularity of its culture, established the conditions for American hegemony.

Question 54

Negative consequences of unipolarity on the world order

when was this best seen
are we seeing a repeat of this now?

Answer 54

Critics of unipolarity suggest that potential hegemons are constantly striving for more power as they are “power maximisers”.

The situation is at its most dangerous when it appears that the influence of the global hegemon/superpower is declining.

This creates the potential for conflict as the superpower seeks to retain its influence in response to increasingly powerful challenges from its rivals.

When have we seen this?
During WW1 it can be said that Germany felt it could challenge Britains global influence.

Today, one of the greatest threats to global stability comes from Chinese and Russian attempts to test the limits of the United States’ power.

Question 55

Does the USA remain a global hegemon?

• Military power
• Structural power
• Economic power
• Soft power

Answer 55

Military power

• The USA has a global military outreach
• It has the technological edge
• It accounts for about 1/3 of the world total military spending.

Structural power
- The USA plays the biggest role in most international organisations from the UNSC, IMF, World Bank and G7

Economic power
- The USA is the worlds largest economy and has established the dominant global economic model of neo-liberal economics.

Soft power
- The culture, ideology and institutions of the USA are attractive to states and people across the globe

Question 56

Is the USA declining as a global hegemon?

• Military power
• Structural power
• Economic power
• Soft power

Answer 56

Military power
- Hard power is weakening as terrorism and guerilla tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq showed the limits of the USA’s advanced military power.

Structural power
- The rise of the BRICS has challenged the USA’s structural power.

• The USA’s role as enforcer of the international framework is declining as it increasingly focuses on national interests
  e. g –> withdrawal of ICC, Paris Climate Agreement and Free trade deals.

Economic power
- China is due to overtake the USA as the worlds leading economy during the 2020s.

• The dominance of the USA’s neo-liberal economic model has been called into question by the 2008 financial crash.
• China has launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as a rival to the US-dominated World Bank as it seeks to replace the dollar with the yuan as the global currency.

Soft power
- The growing view is that soft power is increasing in significance, however, the USA’s decision to invade Iraq without a UNSC resolution and the tactics used has weakened its soft power.

Question 57

Are we moving towards a multipolar world order?

2 key reasons plus examples for both

Answer 57

Yes, we are due to the changing nature of great power politics:

–> The decline of the USA since the start of the 21st century.

• -> The rise of the BRICS
• -> e.g. the rapid economic growth of India, ——> Russias emergence as an energy power as it is able to control eastern Europe through gas and oil and its nuclear weapons
• -> Chinas rapid economic growth and emerging military power.

Yes, we are due to broader developments which have changed the nature of global power and challenged traditional polarity models.

• Globalisation has led to more complex interdependence meaning states are more concentrated on economic growth rather than war, so cooperation and soft power is starting to play a more important role than conflict and hard power.
• Growing levels of global governance further show that cooperation, not conflict is increasing in significance.
• The rise of non-state actors such as NGOs, TNCs and terrorist groups show a shift in the centre of power in global politics.

Question 58

Possible Negative impact of a multipolar world order according to neo-realists?
+ 2 scenarios: The rise of USA and China as potential global hegemons

Answer 58

Neo-realists see the emergence of multipolar world order as dangerous as it creates instability and conflict

1. The USA is a potential hegemon with a clear advantage over other great powers meaning it has a greater chance of winning wars, it is, therefore, likely to start conflict in order to increase its power and security. (The USA has engaged in 6 conflicts since 1991 with weaker powers)

This sparks fears in other states who will then also follow risky policies to increase their security.
e.g. Russias annexation of Crimea.

2. The rise of China as a potential hegemon.
   China will seek to grow its power in Asia which will create fear in other great powers in the area such as Japan, India and Russia who in turn will seek to grow their power.

The declining hegemon (USA) will try to prevent Chinas rise to protect its own security, probably by creating an alliance like NATO in the region.
–> This will lead to a security competition between the two sides and increase instability.

Question 59

The optimistic view of multipolarity on world order

- liberals opinion

Answer 59

Liberals believe that multipolar worlds lean towards multilateralism.
–> e.g. Obama was only willing to take multilateral action in Libya with the full support of the UN.

This is because power is more evenly distributed in multipolar worlds which encourages peace, stability, cooperation and integration, rather than the instability caused by a bipolar world.

Question 60

Development and spread of liberal economies

Answer 60

Liberal economies have spread due to decolonisation, the collapse of the USSR and the Washington consensus used in global governance.

How have they developed:
- They have developed over the neo-liberal lines.

–> States have become even more closely linked together in the global market with decisions in one location having an impact across the globe.

–> This led states to be more interested in trade than war, and favouring cooperation e.g. G20 or even integration e.g. the EU

Question 61

Development and spread of the rule of law

Answer 61

1. The development of international governance especially the UN has established a rules-based international system that has collective security and the respect for international law at its core.
2. The rule of law is a central feature of liberal democracies as it ensures that people and institutions are subject and accountable to the law. It, therefore, acts as a key protector of rights and liberties and as democracy has spread so has the rule of law.

Question 62

Development and spread of democracy

Answer 62

Democracy has spread across the globe as economic globalisation creates the desire for political freedom and also due to the collapse of the communist model. The USA has controversially looked to spread democracy via military interventions e.g. Iraq and Afghanistan. The failure to build effective democracies within these states reflects the difficulty in imposing democracy through the use of force.

Question 63

Examples that the rule of law has been upheld

Answer 63

The intervention in Libya authorised by a UNSC resolution demonstrates the will to protect civilians.

Question 64

Examples that the rule of law has not been upheld

Answer 64

The infringement within states such as Myanmar where the military has acted outside of the rule of law in the treatment of the Rohingya Muslims.

Question 65

Iraq case study
background
war
consequences

Answer 65

Background:

• Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq was an autocratic state.
• The USA labelled it a rogue state and accused it of building up weapons of mass destruction.
• The UK and USA sought a resolution to invade Iraq but it was opposed by France and Russia.

War:
- The USA launched a unilateral war on Iraq without a UNSC resolution making the legality of the war questionable.
The USA justified its intervention by stating Iraq was hoarding weapons of mass destruction and also by saying they were spreading democratic values.

–> However critics saw it as a form of neo-colonialism to gain economic advantages via control over oil.

Consequences

• The war was quickly won showing the USA’s hard power.
• -> However, its soft power was undermined due to the questionable legality of the war.
• Since the victory, the USA’s hard power has also been questioned due to the difficulty in maintaining peace in the area due to guerrilla tactics and terrorist threats.
• Iraq is likely to become a failed state as the internal conflict has been growing between the Sunni and Shia Muslims.