Power and Developments Flashcards
1
Q
hard power military examples
A
- Russia has 850,000 ground forces in 2022 vs Ukraine only 200,000
- China’s 2024 defence budget= 1666 billion yuan
= 7.2% GDP on defence - US spent $877 mil on defence= more than 10 countries combined
- North Korea has 1.9 mil troops, South Korea only has 650,000
- US has high mobility of power= 750 overseas bases in 80 countries vs China only 1 overseas base in Djibouti
- Osama Bin Laden was killed by US Navy Seals on the orders of President Obama in 2011= he was the strategic mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks in the US
2
Q
hard power economic examples
A
- 1995 G7 has 44.9% global GDP vs BRICs= 16.9%
- US has 29.93% total wealth, China= 17.7%, Russia= 0.85%
- Zambia exports 20% metals to China 2022
- US imposed 1,599 sanctions on Iran= due to Iran’s nuclear weapons
- US put 140 sanctions on China in 2010-2020
3
Q
soft power diplomatic examples
A
- bilaterals= 2 countries sit down and talk e.g. UK and Libya agreement to help rebuild Libya= BUT UK was ‘holding the pen’
- special international agreements= 2015 Paris Agreement and Iran nuclear deal
- global governance e.g. UN Big 5= ICJ allowed UN to resolve issues to decrease war
= The UN is an international organisation of 193 nation state members
= 2004, UN operation in Côte d’Ivoire during civil war
= deployed over 11,495 peacekeepers in 2011, disarmed 70,000 combatants and returned over 250,000 refugees in 2016 - regional cooperation e.g. EU, NATO and NAFTA= find resolutions quickly= Trump withdrew from Paris agreement in 2017
- vaccine diplomacy= Serbia had fastest vaccination rate in Europe
= supplied COVID-19 vaccines to China and Russia= improved their geopolitical standing
4
Q
soft power cultural examples
A
- Americanisation of US Hollywood
- Bollywood
- MNCs and transnational corporations= Maccies
- size of population that practice culture e.g. Chinese New Year
- HRs in diff cultures e.g. individual rights in the West vs collective rights in the East
5
Q
describe structural power
A
represents a state’s capacity to influence intergovernmental organisations like the UN, IMF, WTO and G7 = form of diplomatic power
- US is the biggest funder of the world bank and IMF
= power to shape direction of WB and IMF
- Russia kicked out of G8 due to Crimea invasion
- Uk less power after leaving EU
6
Q
describe regional power
A
state may pool sov to increase influence in order to receive structural and diplomatic pressure over IGOs and NGOs
7
Q
describe Joseph Nye
A
- soft power is more influential
= ‘victory may sometimes depend not on whose army wins, but on whose story wins’ 2014
= diplomacy and POV changes outcomes e.g. great firewall China and disinformation to Russian soldiers about war - smart power is mix of hard and soft= shld be able to use both to max interests of state
8
Q
describe billiard model
A
- realism POV= balls represent sov of state that is hard to break through
= wanted by realists= MUST PROTECT SOV and clearly define borders
9
Q
describe cobweb model
A
- liberal POV= power in international system is interwoven and interconnected due to globalisation
= shows interests of states are closely intertwined to make gains from cooperation not competition - G7 shows cobweb model= interdependent states that work together
10
Q
describe smart power
A
- mix of hard and soft power to reach aims of state
- USA used smart power most e.g. Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech
= wanted to reach out to muslims by asking for cooperation to increase peace and to understand value of muslims
BUT demanded that muslims must drop stereotypes of Americans and in turn urge to increase women’s rights, democracy etc
-
11
Q
realists opinions on power
A
- use the carrot and stick system to create an effective international system
= carrot is incentive and stick is punishment
= e.g. US offered North Korea energy and food aid if they stopped production of nucs= otherwise used threat of economic sanctions - hard power define a state’s strength in order to protect state sov
= 2017 Trump launched 57 tomahawk cruise missiles against Assad regime to defer further chemical attacks
12
Q
liberal opinions on power
A
- soft power allows a nation state to influence through persuasion e.g. 2009 Cairo speech of Obama= persuade use of US foreign policy
13
Q
realist key thinkers
A
- Henry Kissinger= ULTRA realist= involved in secret U.S. bombing campaign in Cambodia during the Vietnam War, which was aimed at targeting North Vietnamese sanctuaries
14
Q
current conflict
A
- Ukraine and Russian war= 2014 Russian troops took control of Crimea
= 2018, US put sanctions on 9 companies linked to conflict
= 2024, Russia controls 18% of Ukraine
15
Q
countries with most soft power
A
- France has most= international relationship w EU and G7
- UK is 2nd= since left EU= less power
= global cultural appeal of Ed Sheeran, Beatles and Premier League - Germany= weaker political stability due to Markel’s announcement stepping down as chancellor but still strong democracy
- Sweden= innovative world leaders due to brands like H and M, Ikea etc
= great governance of women’s rights and climate friendly policies
= first country to produce feminist policy in 2014 - China is 27= panda diplomacy= gives pandas to states e.g. Edinburgh zoo has panda but dies in 2023, hosted 2008 olympics and Great Wall Of China
BUT aggressive foreign policy over South China Sea
16
Q
describe great powers
A
- have ability to exercise it’s influence on a regional and global scale due to good economy, military and security
- France has significant military capabilities (including nuclear weapons), a strong economy, and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council
- UK is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and plays a central role in NATO and the Commonwealth
- Germany is Europe’s largest economy and plays a pivotal role in the EU= leading economic and industrial power= has significant influence in global trade and politics, especially in Europe and beyond
17
Q
describe superpowers
A
- refers to a state that holds a dominant position in the world due to its unparalleled military, economic, diplomatic, and cultural influence
= not only able to influence global events but can shape the international system to a significant extent - during Cold War it was US and Soviet Union= every other state was aligned to one of them= no one could challenge their power
- Huntington said US isn’t superpower but great power
= in his Clash of Civilisations he says that US power is rivalled by China and Russia= doesn’t have total global dominance
18
Q
describe emerging powers
A
- state considered to be rising primarily in economic power and influence
= BRICS= Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa= China highest global exporter, Brazil exports soy and raw materials to China
19
Q
describe MINTS
A
- Mexico, indonesia, nigeria and turkey
= group of emerging economies that are expected to play a significant role in the global economy and geopolitics in the coming decades - Nigeria has political instability as Boko Haram claimed 400 lives through terror attacks and warfare= 250,000 children malnourished
20
Q
describe unipolarity
A
- single pole of power where one state dominates all others to be hegemonic where a state must possess ultimate power in all capabilities
- US is only examples
21
Q
describe types of hegemony
A
- malign hegemony= evil state that takes all resources
- benign hegemony= good state that liberals like
22
Q
adv of unipolarity
A
- minimises security competition among other great powers
= as the system leader, the US has the means and motive to maintain key security institutions in order to ease local security conflicts and limit expensive competition among the other major powers - often seen as a period of relative peace and stability, as the hegemony is able to exert its influence over the other states in the system
23
Q
disadv of unipolarity
A
- realist Kenneth Waltz said hegemonic status of one state can encourage dangerous resentment among emerging powers
- If the hegemony is resented and emerging states decide that they can achieve more by challenging it, this can create the environment for destabilising power transition
= Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in defiance of an onslaught of Western criticism indicates that Russia may also begin to probe US weakness - liberal Noam Chomsky said hegemonic power is dangerous as if one state becomes so powerful that is doesn’t take views of others into account= become a rogue superpower that only pursues own interests @ expense of international law= US invaded Iraq 2003 wo UN consent
24
Q
describe bipolarity
A
- two competing poles of power best characterised with a superpower rivalry between US and soviet union during Cold War
= 2 powers are evenly matched and clear balance of power - USA vs Soviet Union
- US vs China but have to be superpowers
25
examples of bipolarity
- in Cold War US and Soviet Union were balanced competing superpowers
26
realist opinions on bipolarity
- Kenneth Waltz said Cold War promoted peace as unevenly balanced powers meant neither side was capable of eliminating the other
= means both sides appreciate limits of what they could achieve
= create equilibrium neither side was willing to break
= if one side had risked war, the results for both would have been catastrophic
- President Ronald Reagan spent money on nucs in 2980s to prove US superiority over Soviet Union
27
liberal opinions on bipolarity
- bipolarity is destabilising and dangerous= because both sides will continually be advancing their military, diplomatic and economic interests @ expense of the other
= creating fear, suspicion, and latent hostility
= doesn't provide the conditions for lasting or meaningful peace
- Ancient Greek historian Thucydides= inherent dangers of bipolarity led to Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta
- claimed Cold War was much more defined by very long periods of mutual distrust and antagonism, as illustrated by US paranoia about a ‘missile gap’ in the 1950s
28
describe regional bipolarity
- shift towards regionalism has made it more important to be leader of a region not global
= supported by Huntington
= shown in India vs Pakistan tensions and proxy wars in Syria
29
examples of regional bipolarity
- Saudi and Iran never had direct war due to nuclear weapons and risk of creating a bigger war
- Pakistan and India have similar demographic characteristics e.g. language
= conflicts resulted in ceasefires
30
describe multipolarity
- multiple poles of power where several states compete with each other= may have diff strengths and weaknesses in terms of power but each wields relatively equal influence on international stage
- number of relatively evenly matched powers= no one can claim hegemonic power over others
= 5-7 nation states
31
advantages of multipolarity
- US economic power is challenged by China, Russia, India etc= global brands challenge US brands
- liberals argue absence of global hegemony means states are more likely to cooperate in multilateral organs of global governance
= creates opportunities of cooperation
- Fukuyama liberal likes it
- liberals argue relative security of a multipolar world depends upon whether the leading players are prepared to work through international agencies of gov, or whether they prefer to compete within alliance structures
- argue that for multipolarity to provide peace, nation-states must set aside state egoism and be prepared to cooperate through organisations such as the G7, G20, UN and WTO
32
disadv of multipolarity
- realist John Mearsheimer said multipolarity makes unstable distribution of global power
= states seek to max power @ expense of other states
= creates fear and uncertainty among states since there are so many players, the risk of possible conflicts is increased
- he argues absence of 2 superpowers competing are more likely to see multiple small scale regional conflicts e.g. Europe, India and Pakistan
= multipolar world encourages risk-taking by states, so undermining the potential for a long-lasting balance of power
33
china is a superpower/ threat
- China has gained hegemonic power
- rise of the AIIB
- China's 2022 'modern Silk Road' cost $67.8 billion
= a series of land and sea routes that connect China to other countries= increase Chinese trade w Bangladesh and Russia
- China emits most CO2 emissions in the world= 8.1 tonnes per capita= reject diplomatic agreements
- china spends 7.2% GDP on defence= more hard power
- china has developmental projects in the Congo which supplies 70% global cobalt
- Mearesheimer= 'if china continues to rise you better be careful because it will drive US stark raving crazy'= US must fight to preserve power
- China and North Korea have good relationship= Xi Ping and Jong-un met frequently
- US dropped out of Paris agreement
34
china isn't superpower/ threat
- only 1 military overseas base in Jabuti= weak mobility of power (Fox)
- china's economy decline due to 2021 housing crisis
- US isn't member of AIIB= less influental= more of a regional power
- China and US depend on each other for trade= if either provoke war its not in economic interest of either= Niall Ferguson called it 'Chimaerica'= emphasis depth of economic dependency
- China and US can work closely e.g. 2014 they both made joint climate deal
- President Xi Ping said 'theres not one reason to point the China-US relationship'
- US and China agreed on decreasing tensions in North Korea's nuclear missile programme
35
describe Bush Doctrine
- set of foreign policy principles and strategies of US= 9/11 was catalyst for these to be set
- Bush said 'you can't negotiate with terrorists'= justified 2002 Iraq invasion due to Hussein's regime developing weapons of mass destruction= Neo-consrvative view that US is a benign hegemon that protects peace and own interests
36
describe democratic peace theory
- a world of democracies would be peaceful and decrease likeliness of wars to occur
= Mearesheimer said a democracy is 'the most powerful ideology on earth'
- Iraq war caused 461,000 deaths and 60% casualties caused by violence
= outcome of non-democratic state
37
how have attitudes towards HRs changed
- 1948 UDHR established international standard of HRs
- 1991 takedown of soviet union gave US hegemonic status of 'New world order' of Bush= democracy, cooperation etc
- 1992, Bush sent US troops into Somalia to ensure humanitarian relief for famine victims
- more authroaitan Govs in china and Russia challenge HRs
= 2016 Brexit created anti-immigrant hate of Farage= link to Trumps 'Wall' on Mexican border= creates a refugee crisis
- Obama got Nobel peace prize 2009 but still caused civilian casualties in drone strikes of Syrian civil war= unpunished HRs abuses
38
change of power balance affected conflict, poverty and environment - YES
- REALISTS= there's a fear that conflict may be caused due to state's interests of power that may challenge hegemon
= state seeks power and security and power transition may be unstable due to risks to achieve power
- globalisation has increased free-market capitalism= decreased poverty as developing countries can take advantage of of opportunities for growth that global trade presents
= developing population of the world decreased from 30% in 2000, to below 10% in 2024
- China and India now have top 10 biggest global economies (both developing countries)
- 2019, China's FDI to Africa was over $100 billion= increased African growth by over 20%
- Boserup argues challenges created by population growth force u to come up with new and better solutions e.g. new tech creations make more sustainable resources etc
- 2015 Paris climate agreement showed developing countries are more aware of dangers of large economic growth= conference got 200 states to agree temp rise should be as close to 1.5C as possible
- Biden made John Kerry the first full time climate envoy for US
39
change of power balance affected conflict, poverty and environment - NO
- LIBERAL= a more multipolar world can encourage states to work together if they're prepared to corporate through organs of global governance
= in an evenly balanced world no singular power is unilaterally able to impose its will on others
- 'bottom billion' of subsaharan Africa etc are still poorly governed= cheap manufactured goods are 'dumped' on them to undermine their potential to achieve initial stage of
- neo-colonial powers exploit cheap labour and raw materials so that profits from globalisation go to core power
- free market inequality increases resentment between states as globalisation doesn't let all improve equally= increase gap between rich and poor
- developing countries favour economic growth over sustainable development
= cheap CO2 fuels, coal etc= criticised by rich states
- higher population means there 'is a limit to this growth'
- 2017, Trump withdrew Paris agreement and Xi Ping reversed plans for 104 new coal plants as trump didn't like up to agreement
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