population theories and other questions

Question 1

Intro to population theory?

Answer 1

• The thinking on population-resource nexus can be traced back to the works of of Many of the ancient philosophers like Confucius (China), Kautilya (India), Ibn Khaldin (Arab).
• Kautilya, a contemporary of Plato, had written in his Arthashastra that ‘a large population is a source of political, economic and military strength of a nation
• Chinese philosopher, Confucius argued that a numerical balance be maintained between population and environment.
• In ancient Greece, the earliest thinkers favoured the expansion of population, but Plato was a restrictionist who advocated as absolute limit of population.

Question 2

Malthusian theory of population growth: intro?

Answer 2

• Robert Malthus Thomas,English economist and Demographer: Essay on principle of pop in 1798
• first thinker who took the question of pop in a formal way

Question 3

Malthusian theory of population growth: main body: theory?

Answer 3

• two axioms in which he described two ‘urges’ essential for human survival:
  
  • food necessary; food production AP
  • passion between sexes necessary and will continue and pop @GP
• widening gap- unequal distri of resources- capitalistic society- thus Malthus, defended capitalism set up.
• increasing gap- ultimately will lead to inevitable pt. of misery and poverty
• Classified the resisting force to increasing population in two grps
  
  • positive checks: were related to mortality; like wars, disease, hunger - Malthusian catastrophe
  • preventive checks: moral restraint (postponement of marriage) and vice like adultery, birth control and abortion
• HOwever, all that the preventive checks can do was to postpone positive checks and that the latter are inevitable.

Question 4

Malthusian theory of population growth: main body: criticism?

Answer 4

• Deterministic and pessimistic theory; ignored the role of changing tech and consequent transformation in socio-econ set up of a society i.e. anti-cornucopian
• Prosperity and pop growth don’t always go hand in hand. as arsene Dumont argued in his social capillarity theory, desire to increase social status in the social order will keep a check on pop growth.
• confused moralist and scientific approaches
• desire to have children cannot be mixed with passion and desire for sex; biological vs social instinct
• AP and GP increase rarely seen in real world; doubling period for pop varies frm region-2-region as opposed to 25yrs predicted by Malthus
• overemphasized the inevitability of positive checks: Pessimistic; natural calamities hv also occured in developed countries

Question 5

Malthusian theory of population growth: main body: merits and applicability?

Answer 5

• not so much wrong as he was premature
• bring the study of pop into the fold of Social sc. and initiated theory building ; said to be an ecological theory, first to link fertility/ecology of soil with pop growth
• raised awareness abt problem of food security, poverty and misery.

Applicability

• Malthusian channel by which a high level of population reduces income per capita is still relevant in poor developing countries that have large rural populations dependent on agriculture, as well as in countries that are heavily reliant on mineral or energy exports.
• When Malthus lived (1766 – 1834) the global population reached its first billion (in 1804). Today we have 7.6 billion. Even when we can find many arguments that this number is far too high for a sustainable situation on our planet there is statistically enough food produced for everybody. The biggest problem with food isn’t production but rather distribution

Question 6

Marxian Theory of Population Growth: intro?

Answer 6

• There cud be no one universal law of pop growth and growth pattern and dynamics of pop change with the change in mode of production
• Marxian theory of population is based on as a reaction to the capitalistic mode of production and governance with ‘class struggle’ and ‘poverty’ seen as main driving forces of population growth among poor workers

Question 7

Marxian Theory of Population Growth: theory?

Answer 7

• Each mode of production has its own economic and demographic laws eg. growth pattern of a nomadic society will be differnt frm that of settled cultivators
• His model more applicable In a capitalistic or feudal society society, following dialectical materialism
• In a capitalistic society, emerges the classes of ‘exploiters’ nd ‘exploited’ who hv mutually hostile and irreconciliable interests.
• The rich, work towards sole motive of ‘capital accumulation’ to increase their ‘surplus value’ (profit), while the poor workers try to accumulate labor, the only commodity they possess, through rapid pop growth.
• However with improvement in tech and surplus of labor, the rising pop becomes an industrial reserve army of unemployed and under-employed suffering in poverty and misery.
• Thus, poverty and misery aren’t natural ineveitabilities bt unpleasant gifts of capitalism
• The birth and death rates as well as size of family hv inverse correlation with level of wages.

Question 8

Marxian Theory of Population Growth: criticism?

Answer 8

• unprecedented growth of pop mainly due to extension and improvement of medical faclities
• no simple co-relation betn increase in pop and decrease in real wages, numerous socio-political and economic factors at play
• over-emphasized and considered pvt property as the main cause of all evils
• may be relevant in capitalisic society, bt nt in say, primitive hunting and food gathering society
• Human Geographers J.S.Mill and Arsene Dumont suggested that the the desire for socio-economic capillarity and fear of poverty are main drivers to reduce family size.

Question 9

Marxian Theory of Population Growth: applicability?

Answer 9

• Marxian theory, on the whole, fails to explain the population growth slowdown in Western countries, which can be better explained by arsene deumont’s socio-economic capillarity theory. that espouses that “Development is the contraception”
• Even in communist society, Marxian theory should make family planning policies obviated. However, in erstwhile USSR, factory workers were provided contraceptives to keep the bith rates low.
• In LDCs, Marxian theory has limited applicability though some elements like exploitation of worker class, concentration of capital, rising population and unemployment among workers are observed.

Question 10

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: intro?

Answer 10

• Originally, by W.S.Thompson and F.W. Notestein, based on empirical observations of trends of fertility and mortality being experienced in Europe, N.America and Australia.
• characterized by conspicuous transition stages

Question 11

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: theory: BOX?

Answer 11

• Three hypotheses (BOX):
  
  • decline in mortality comes before the decline in fertility
  • fertility eventually declines to match mortality
  • socio-economic transformation of a society takes place simulataneously with its demographic transition

Question 12

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: theory: stage 1?

Answer 12

• high Crude BR (Hedging risk) and high crude DR; mortality erratic due to epidemics and variable food supply;
• stable and slowly growing pop;
• low life expectancy; large family size considered an asset;
• predominantly agrarian society with limited growth of urbanisation;
• illiterate masses and poor health care;
• limited dev in tech and widespread religious orthodoxy;
• no example of this stage due to widespread penetration of modern medicine and so, this staage is called ‘pre-industrial or pre-modern stage’.

Question 13

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: theory: stage 2?

Answer 13

• high and gradual declining fertility and a sharply reducing mortality rate and so, expanding stage of population
• early and late second stage (fertility also shows decline)
• as pop explodes, resource mobilization becomes significant, life expecancy improves, large families no longer an asset (JS Mill); process of industrialization, urbanization and modernization becomes prominent
• Most of developing countries, incl India

Question 14

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: theory: stage 3?

Answer 14

• DR stabilized at a low level and BR declines with easy access to family planning methods
• Thus, a slowdown in GR
• demographic transition parallels social change
• Growth of an educated urban/industrial society with low Infant mortality, increased std of living and changing status of women (Arsene Dumont)
• India, as of 2013, can be placed in later half of the third stage (Sridhar) bt the decline in fertility rate more of coercive and policy induced rather than ‘Dumontian’ decline.

Question 15

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: theory: stage 4?

Answer 15

• both BR and DR decline appreciably
• pop either stable or grows slowly
• pop highly industrialized and urbanized, technical know-how is abundant, deliberate controls on family size is common (Arsene Dumont and J.S.Mill), literacy and edu levels are high and high degree od labor specialization.
• eg. Anglo-american, west European countries, aus, Japan

Question 16

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: criticism and merits?

Answer 16

• Merits:
  
  • does provide an effective portrayal of world’s demographic history at macro level of generalization
  • as an empirical generalization, helps in understnading transition process provided the situational context is properly understood.
• Criticisms:
  
  • Acc to Loscky and Wildcose, theory is neither predictive nor its stages are sequential and inevitable eg. China entered 3rd stage owing to its one-child policy
  • no comment on change in population due to migration
  • The evidence of Mortality reversal in countries frm both developed and under-developed parts of the world.

Question 17

Demographic Transition Theory of POpulation growth: Applicability?

Answer 17

• It must be remembered that the DTM is only a model and cannot necessarily predict the future.
• It is not applicable for high levels of development, as it has been shown that after a HDI of 0.9 the fertility increases again
• Some have claimed that DTM does not explain the early rapid fertility declines in much of Asia in the second half of the 20th century or the delays in fertility decline in parts of the Middle East.

Question 18

Mortality Reversal and trends in different parts of the world: intro?

Answer 18

Declining mortality has long been a routine expectation in most of the world, aside from wartime interruptions. Many forecasts, including Demographic Transition model by Thompson and Notestein, envisage a global convergence to low mortality ,esp in stage IV.

Question 19

Mortality Reversal and trends in different parts of the world: body?

Answer 19

Since the 1970s, however, in some regions of world, there is sharp increase in mortality rates, owing to natural reasons (age related mortality) and positive checks as suggested by Malthus(disease epidemics, wars). This trend of mortality is known as Mortality reversal and sometims refrred as stage V of DTM

MAP

Question 20

Mortality Reversal and trends in different parts of the world: regional trnds?

Answer 20

1. Developed countries such as Germany, Japan, Norway, Sweden is ascribed to geriatric mortality i.e. as higher proportion of pop turns old, natural deaths abound.
2. East Europe and Russia: political and economic challenges has led to health crisis and increasd mortality rates. In countries of the former Soviet Union, mortality from accidents and violence had reached very high levels by the late 1970s and increased through the 1990s
3. Africa and West Asia: epidemics such as HIV (Uganda), wars (Genocide in Rwanda), poverty, lack of education and healthar facilities has led to low life expectancy and mortality reversal among adult pop; esp high in Zimbawe and Botswana

BOX: causes: natural (Japan, Germany); Health and epidemics(East europe and Russia); economic reversal (great depression in USA and europe); conflicts; env challenges

MAP

• CASE STUDY: RUSSIA

most well documnted; USSR witnessed quick decline in MR in 1940s and 50s due to high priority on univrsal healthcare by the communist regime.

However since mid 1960s, country has faced a worsening health crisis on acct of poor health care services and alcoholism, thereby experiencing a gradual decline in life expectancy in the 1970s and a further drop in the 1990s to a low of 66 years. In the 1990s in Russia, mortality attributed to homicide approached the world’s highest levels.

LIfe expectancy gap betn Russia and western nations has increasd frm 1-3yrs in 1965 to 13-15yrs in 21st century.

Question 21

Mortality Reversal and trends in different parts of the world: demographic trnds?

Answer 21

• AGE: mainly observed in adult (working) pop, and nt the traditionally vulnerable chidren and elderly
• SEX: trend is predominant among men as compared to that among women, esp in older age grp. eg. In the year 2000 male life expectancy at birth in Russia was 59 years–below its level of 60 years in 1955–1956. The corresponding figures for the female population were 72 and 68 years, respectively.
• Economic class: Excess mortality in Eastern Europe has been increasingly concentrated among manual workers and low education groups

Question 22

Mortality Reversal and trends in different parts of the world: concl?

Answer 22

worrisome as it is only going to strengthen in ‘spread’ and ‘degree’ on acct of increasing ageing pop (India, China SE Asia) and climate change induced food shortages, epidemics, disasters and conflicts.

Tehch intervntions like better healthcare may arrest Mortality reversal to certain extent, specifically in Sub-Saharan Africa rgion. Also, emphasis should be placed to prepare for geriatric care across the nations as life expectancy cannot be increased beyond a limit, in line with ‘Pragmatic Possibilism’ of Taylor.

Question 23

Optimum pop: intro?

Answer 23

• propounded by Edwin Cannon in 1924 and popularised by Dalton, Robbins and Carl Saunders
• ideal population which combined with resource availability, for a given level of tech dev, in the country will yield maximum prosperity. Most of the aforementioned thinkers equated prosperity with economic well-being and thus at the optimum population level, the per capita income and avg productivity of labor are highest. after that level, the law of diminishing returns begins to operate

DIAGRAM

Question 24

optimum pop: body?

Answer 24

The optimum theory of population was put forward as a reaction to the Malthusian theory of population, bt instead of talking abt pop growth and its causes, it seeks to explain the fundamental relationship between population and resources.

Daltons’ formula for calculating deviation frm optimum pop (Maladjustment)

Criticisms:

• concept of resource (a function of available tech) as well as the availability of resource varies
• development is a subjective concept: what of social, ecological aspects (maximum viable pop a better measure in this regard).
• Due to its ‘mirage like’ characterstics, Robbins commented “OP is an interesting idea bt it is a sterile concept”

Comparisons with Malthusian Theoyr of pop

• Malthus- only takes into acct pop growth-foodsupply relationship, Cannon relates pop growth with all the available resources
• Unlike pessimism of Malthus, OP is more humanist, pragmatic and realistic since it does give due weightage to tech and recognises that growth of pop is nt always undesirable bt indispensable upto a certain level to efficiently utilise the resources available.

Question 25

optimum pop: conclusion?

Answer 25

The optimum theory is an important landmark in the science of demography. It is valuable because it enables us to overcome the bogey of Malthusianism and give us a test of progress (in per capita income). However, it requires to be re-casted in a dynamic setting for making it more successful.

Question 26

“Considrable demographic similarities betn European nations and Japan”: intro?

Answer 26

Western European nations and japan hv high HDI, high std of living and better quality of life. Countries like Germany (and UK in near future) and Japan hv ntered in 5th phase of DTM with very low BR and low DR.

MAP

Question 27

“Considrable demographic similarities betn European nations and Japan”: similarities?

Answer 27

• BR and DR: both hv very low or negative increase low BR due to family planning, good health and high status of women, delayed marriages as well as low DR due to good healthcare, reliabl food supply as well as long period of peace and prosperity
• Life xpectancy and Elderly issues:one of highest life expectancy in the world. eg. Japan-84 yrs; Spain-83-84 yrs; Switzerland-83-87yrs. Growing old age population (In 2018, nearly one fifth (19 %) of the EU population was aged 65 and more; 26% in Japan in 2014) is leading to very low working age population and high burden on working pop (The old-age dependency ratio for the EU-28 was 30.5 %; while along with youn age dependency, it reaches 54.6%). Both the regions are facing economic constraints to productivity due to this and are even witnessing mortality reversal
  
  • BOX: Baby boom: people born due to post WWII baby boom are at the retirement age
  • Another aspect of population ageing is the progressive ageing of the older population itself, share of those aged 80 years or above in the EU-28’s population is projected to increase by two and a half times between 2018 and 2100, from 5.6 % to 14.6 %
• INcreasin feminization of elderly: Since women, on avg, lives longer (4.3yrs) than men.
• rural depopulation: better amenities in cities, rural areas- outmigration
  
  • Urban pop in Japan-78%; EU-76%
• Sex ratio and literacy rate: similar sex ratios (1.06 males per female) and high literacy rate of ~99%

Question 28

“Considrable demographic similarities betn European nations and Japan”: concl?

Answer 28

similar demography and resultant challenges. Similar policy stance are also observed like accepting migrations and pro-natalist policies. Both can collaborate with each other as well as a demographic dividend rich country like INdia to mitigate any labor shortage and ensure sustainable future growth.

Question 29

Relationship betn Net Reproductive rate and true replacement level of pop:intro?

Question 30

Relationship betn Net Reproductive rate and true replacement level of pop: defns?

Answer 30

• The net replacement (or reproduction) rate, R0, is the average number of daughters that would be born to a female if she passed through her lifetime conforming to the age-specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year
  
  • This rate is similar to the gross reproduction rate but takes into account that some females will die before completing their childbearing years
  • An R0 of one means that each generation of mothers is having exactly enough daughters to replace themselves in the population
  • The current (2015–20) estimate for the R0 worldwide under the UN’s medium variant model is 1.09 daughters per woman.
• True Replacement Level of population is the level of total fertility rate (TFR) at which a population exactly replaces itself frm one generation to the next, without migration. This turns out to be a TFR of 2.1 for most of developed and developing countries.
  
  • It varies frm region to region with the regional mortality rates.

Question 31

Relationship betn Net Reproductive rate and true replacement level of pop: relationship?

Answer 31

• Both are intrinsically linked since both parameters are concerned with the rate at which the younger population replaces the older gen. However, while NRR is a ferility parameter that has a dynamic value that changes both temporally and spatially, TRL is a benchmark parameter that remains more-or-less constant for a generation or two.
• Both are strong indicators of social factors like Health, education levels, govt policies and programs
• A society with poorer health and education levels and a backward economy generally witnesses high NRR and true replacement level(due to higher mortality)
• MAP

Question 32

fertility related terms?

Answer 32

1. Crude birth rate
2. General fertility rate
3. Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR)
4. Total Fertility rate (TFR)
5. Gross Reproductive rate
6. net Reproductive rate

Question 33

concept of fertility transition: intro?

Answer 33

refers to decline of fertility frm high levels to low levels during a period of time. often called “quiet revolution” as it is a dramatic global social process which generated new demographic dynamism in the history of mankind

Question 34

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: North America?

Answer 34

• TFR declined frm 3.5 in 1950s to Replacement level in early 1970s
• reason: economic prosperity and new attitude towards children and marriage (Arsene Dumont); The decline in infant and child mortality that preceded the reduction in fertility

Question 35

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: Latin America?

Answer 35

• similar trajectory to Asia’s started in 1960s and nearly halved by 1990s
• first started in Uruguay and Argentina
• reasons:
  
  • diffusion of modern contraceptive
  • occured first among women in older age grps of reproductive age characterizing as an option to limit their family size
• Different frm European fertility transition: The weddings kept happening in younger ages and as first pregnancies

Question 36

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: Asia?

Answer 36

• 1950s: high fertility
• 1970s: sharp decline (SE Asian nations)
• 1990s : record decline (India and China)
• Reason:
  
  • rise in female education, delay in marriage age and changing marriage pattern
  • urban living and non-agricultural employment,
  • mortality decline
  • government family planning programmes
• EXAMPLE: 3 countries in Asia (Japan, Singapore and Macao) had low fertility during 1975‐1980, increasing to 8 countries during 1990‐1995 and 18 during 2005‐2010

Question 37

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: Africa?

Answer 37

• onset delayed(1980s compared to 1960s in Asia and LA); also the pace of transition has also been distinctly slower (TFR=5.1 for 2005-2010 still more than double than that in Asia and LA) than in developing worlddue to
  
  • limited economic growth
  • high infant and child mortality rate
• Reasons for transition
  
  • social development
  • improved educational attainsment
  • use of contraceptives
  • birth control campaigns
• CASE STUDY: a study by Caldwell(1992) argues that the fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa represents “a new type of transition”. This African pattern “will be one of similar fertility declines across all age groups” (p. 237), which would be in contrast to “the greater declines among older women that characterized the non-African transitions”

Question 38

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: Europe?

Answer 38

• Albania and Iceland only 2 with FR >2
• reasons:
  
  • socio-economic incentive to delay child bearing
  • institutional factors such as labor mkt rigidities
  • lack of child care and changing gendr roles

Question 39

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: Australia and New Zealand?

Answer 39

• replacement level fertility reache din late 1970s
• reaons:
  
  • high level of edu
  • family planning
  • financial and social incentives

Question 40

concept of fertility transition: in different parts of the world and reasons therein: India?

Answer 40

• state of world Population 2018, by UNFPA, India’s avg TFR betn 2015-20, was estimated at 2.3 per women which is a decline of 50% frm TFR of 4.97 for 1975-80
• Reasons:
  
  • investment in Human Resource develoment
  • improved health services and consequent child and infant mortality
  • Reduction in gender and social inequalities
  • A larger middle class replacing agricultural population
  • govt policies (national population policy in 5th FYP): aims to stabilize pop by 2045.

Question 41

concept of fertility transition: concl?

Answer 41

views of DTM, Marx, JS Mill, Arsene Dumont.

Question 42

Major tribal regions of India and their problems: intro?

Answer 42

Tribals are people considered indigenous to places (i.e., forests) within India wherein they live, either as foragers or as tribalistic sedentary. communities.census 2011- 8.6% (104mn). The constitution of India deems the tribal groups as ‘scheduled Tribes’ under Art 342.

Question 43

Major tribal regions of India and their problems: major tribal regions?

Answer 43

• Central indian Tribal belt:
  
  • max % of tribal grps
  • extending frm Bhils in RJ, Gonds & Sahariyas in MP to Munda, Ho in BIhar and JH
  • Chhatisgarh: 32% pop tribal, incl majority of Gonds or Kotoriya tribe
• NE tribal belt:
  
  • highly diverse in their culture and ethnicity
  • Mizoram, nagaland,Meghalaya - >80% of their total pop as tribal
• NW Tribal belt: tribes like Gaddi, Bakarwals practice Transhumance
• Island Tribal belt:
  
  • almost all tribes in A&N are PVTGs and on verge of extinction. includes Great Andamanese, Onges, Jarawas and Sentinelese
  • major tribal communities that reside in Lakshadweep are Aminidivi, Koyas, Malmis and Malacheris
• Southern Indian Tribal belt:
  
  • frm Toda, Kadars, Irulur and Kotas of TN to Koragas and Beda of KN
  • Lambani tribes of MH and Kunbis of Goa

Question 44

Major tribal regions of India and their problems: major problems faced?

Answer 44

• Acute poverty
  
  • XAXA committe report, 50% poor (general pop 12%); historical reasons (colonial era laws like Indian Forest Act 1927) which compromised their rights over land as well as due to economic factors that focussed on flawed dev policies based on mining, industries in tribal regions
• Low levels of socio-economic indicators:
  
  • education: literacy level- 60% in rural and 78% in urban (77% and 90% for general pop). their overall participation in higher education is just 1.6% due to very high dropouts
  • Health parameters: 70 tribal women-anaemia and 50% tribal children are under-weight
  • CASE study: Saharia tribe (MP): found recemtly prevalence of acute malnutrition due to poverty, delayed breastfeeding, premature pregnancies and seasonal migrations
  • TABLE: Parameter-(STs, General): IMR-(80,68); U5MR- (130,96); life expectancy - (61,66)
• Forced displacement and land alienation:
  
  • schematic: Dev induced displacement + forest conservation efforts -> forced eviction of tribals-> exploitation
  • Banking facilities in the tribal areas are so inadequate that the tribals have to depend mainly on moneylenders.
  • Case study: declaration of Achnakamar Amarkantak forest reserve in 2009 as a tiger reserve led to the dislocation of 245 Baiga tribal families (Chhatisgarh)
• Erosion and encroachment of tribal identities and culture:
  
  • traditional insti and laws are coming in conflict with modrn insti, threatening tribal ways of life
  • eg. recent extinction of Bo tribe in 2010 frm A&N
  • killing of an American national trying to encroach into territory of North Sentinelese
• Over dependence on Agri: esp subsistence agri, shifting agri and lack of mechanization

Question 45

Major tribal regions of India and their problems: Govt initiatives and conclusion?

Answer 45

modern approach of PANCHSHEEL based on twin objectives of

• dev of tribes for basic health and literacy
• safeguardin them against exploitation

Tribal Subplans (since 5thFYP), Modified Area Dev Approach (6th FYP), PESA act (1996) and Forest Rigts Act-2006 and 2019

However, need to provide vertical unity in tribal areas (access to literacy and other basic amenities) along with horizontal unity. need to ensure Community dvelopment recognisoing Tribals as major stakeholders in planning for comprehnsive dev of tribal regions.

Question 46

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: intro?

Answer 46

Migration is a defining feature of the 21st century world. Acc to UN INternational Migration Report 2017, the share of migrants in total pop has increased to 3.4% in 2017 (2.8% in 2000) with absolute no reaching 258mn.

Question 47

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: theories?

Answer 47

• Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration
• Theory of Intervening opportunities by S. Stouffer
• Gravity model
• Lee’s push-pull theory
• Zelinsky’s model of Migration Transition
• Lewis’ and Fei-Ranis’ model on rural-urban migration
• social perception theory of Sjaastad-Todaro
• structuralist or Marxian interpretation

Question 48

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Ravenstein’s Law of Migration?

Answer 48

• 1885
• a set of generalizations which he termed as ‘laws of migration’ fpr inter-country migration in Britain
  
  • inverse relation between distance and volume of migration (G.K.Zipf’s Inverse distance law)
  • Migration proceeds step by step eg. countryside->nearby town->urban centre
  • Every migration current produces a counter-current.
  • major direction of migration is from agricultural areas to the centres of industry and commerce.
  • age selective (working grps more inclined) and gender selectiive (females more mobile for intra-country)
  • Migration occurs mainly due to economic reasons
• Crticism: While first ‘law’ is self-evident, other are not very clear frm empirical data. eg. migration in the economically developed countries is more likely to be urban to rural than in the opposite direction. Plus, lacked influence of opportunities.

Question 49

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Gravity model?

Answer 49

• migration is directly proportional to the product of their population size and inversely proportional to the square of the distance separating them
• model has been used to account for a wide variety of flow patterns in human geography like telephone traffic, passenger movements, commodity flows etc as well as applied to retail trade of a city centre by W.J.Reilley as well as by Zipf while explaining the movement of people between two centres.
• Criticisms:
  
  • Doubts have been raised regarding the validity of population size as a potential force for attraction
  • Use of simple linear distance, rather than distance measured in terms of transport routes and facilities, frequency of movement and cost of transport, is another weak point
  • the model treats all the migrants as one homogeneous group, and fails to explain the age and sex selec­tivity of migration

Question 50

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Theory of intervening opportunities by S. Stouffer?

Answer 50

• modification in the gravity model
• Stouffer’s model suggests that the number of migrants from an origin to a destination is directly proportional to the number of opportunities at that desti­nation, and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities between the origin and the destination. he further modified his model to include effects of competing migrants and repulsion frm the source city.

Question 51

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Lee’s push-pull theory?

Answer 51

• Factors that lead to migration can be classified as
  
  • Factors associated with the place of origin,
  • Factors associated with the place of destination,
  • Intervening obstacles, and
  • Personal factors.
• each place possesses a set of positive and negative factors as well as neutral factors, to which people are essentially indifferent. real situation prevailing at the places of origin and destination are not as important in affecting migration as individual’s perception of these factors
• perceived difference between the areas of origin and destination is related to the stage of the lifecycle of an individual. eg. A long associ­ation of an individual with a place may result in an over-evaluation of positive factors and under-evaluation of negative factors in the area of origin
• And so regarding volume of migration, Lee proposed
  
  • volume varies with diversity of areas involved as well as that of people involved
  • Volume related to the difficulty of surmounting the intervening obstacles
  • Unless severe checks are imposed, both volume and rate of migration tend to increase over time.
• regarding currents and counter-currents,
  
  • take place largely within well defined streams; and for every major miration stream, a counter-stream develops
  • efficiency of migration stream varies with the economic conditions
• Regarding characterstics of migrants,
  
  • Migration is selective in nature
  • heightened propensity to migrate at certain stages of life cycle
  • characteristics of migrants tend to be intermediate between the characteristics of populations at the places of origin and the place of destination
• simply +ve> -ve nt enough, bt The balance in favour of the move must be enough to overcome the natural inertia and intervening obstacles.

Question 52

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Zelensky’s model of miration transition?

Answer 52

• derived frm idea of DTM

Question 53

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Lewis theory?

Answer 53

In the Lewis model, migration is the result of concerted effort on the part ofthe state to transfer surplus rural labour to the industrial sector by developing the latter for capital formation.

criticism:

• theory assumes a constant wage rate in the capitalist sector until the supply of labour is exhausted from the subsistence sector. This is unrealistic
• Skilled labour is regarded as a temporary bottleneck which can be removed by providing training facilities to unskilled labour. but skill formation poses a serious problem, as it takes a very long time to educate and train the multitudes in such countries.
• This is a one-sided theory because Lewis does not consider the possibility of progress in the agricultural sector. As the industrial sector develops with the transfer of surplus labour, the demand for food and raw materials will rise which will, in turn, lead to the growth of the agricultural sector.
• Lewis assumes that when the surplus labour is withdrawn from the subsistence sector to the capitalist sector, the agricultural production remains unaffected in the subsistence sector.

Question 54

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: Fei-Renis Theory?

Answer 54

• rural-urban migration in underdeveloped countries, having surplus labour but scarcity of capital.
• The process of development involves transfer of surplus labour (in 3 phases) from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector, so as to increase its productivity from zero to a wage level equal to the institutional wage in agriculture.
• 3 phases:
  
  • disguised unemployed workers
  • agricultural workers who add to the agricultural output but produce less than the institutional wage they get. a point is ultimately reached when farm workers produce output equal to the institutional wage.
  • farm workers produce more than the institutional wage they get. Thus the surplus labour is exhausted and the agricultural sector becomes commercialised.
• criticisms:
  
  • Supply of Land not Fixed
  • based on the assumption of a constant institutional wage which is above minimum wage frm agri prodtn during Phases I and II
  • analysis is based on the assumption of a closed economy where foreign trade does not exist

Question 55

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: social perception theory of Sjaastad-Todaro?

Answer 55

• neoclassical economic theory suggesting that international migration is related to the global supply and demand for labor. Nations with scarce labor supply and high demand will have high wages that pull immigrants in from nations with a surplus of labor
• migration has an element of hope and that is why despite conditions of poverty, homelessness ad poor qlty of life, big economic centres (like delhi, Kolkata) continue to attract migrants.

Question 56

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration: structuralist or Marxian interpretations?

Answer 56

while the above theories talk abt individualistic choices and are generally towards areas with positive prspects, Structuaralist or marxian interpre. suggests that migration is not an individualistic choice and that it is not unrestricted. It is a consequence of political and economic factors and has origi in capitalism, class divide and exploitation.

Question 57

Critically examine Theories on POpulation migration:

Answer 57

In 2017, India was the largest country of origin of international migrants (17 million), urgent need to ask the world fora to understand the theoy and factors behind migration.

Climate change induced migration needs to be studies.

Question 58

Age dependency Ratio?

Answer 58

• no. of dependents (<15 or >64yrs)/ no. of economically productive (15-64yr)
• India: 49.2% in 2019 (>79% in 1970)
• world avg: 13.5% in 2018 (8.5% in 1960).

Question 59

Crude Birth rate in India?

Answer 59

July 2017: 19/1000 (down frm 39/1000 in 1970)

Question 60

Trends of TFR, reasons and challenges associated?