Population Change Flashcards
Birth rate
Number of live births per 1000 people per year per country
Death rate
Number of deaths per 1000 people people per year in a country
Fertility rate
Number of live births per 1000 women of normal reproductive age (15-49) in a country
Total fertility rate
Average number of children a woman in a population has in her life time
Life expectancy
Number of years a person can expect to live
Longevity
The increase in life expectancy over a period of time
Natural change
Birth rate - death rate
Infant mortality rate
Number of deaths of children under the age of one year per 1000 live births per year
Migration rate
Measure of balance between immigration and emigration
Net migration
Immigration - emigration per 1000 people per year
Population density
Number of people per unit area of land
Usually people per km2
Advantages of vital rates/development indicators
Can be used to compare countries
Can show level of development as suggest what living conditions are like in country
Disadvantages of vital rates/development indicators
Only consider one measure (composite indicators are better)
There’s variation within a country (not shown on national level)
Population density doesn’t indicate development (countries can have high and be rich or poor)
My be a reason why there is a high or low indicator that might not reflect level of development accurately (high br in Philippines due to banned low contraception - not low development but suggests so)
Fertility rates are higher or lower in more developed countries?
Lower: small fall in pop e.g. Italy, Russia, Portugal. >50 nations with less than 2.1 per woman UN predict no. will rise
(Higher for less developed: tradition is important women pressured, low literacy rates, youthful population)
Mortality rates higher or lower in MEDCs?
Lower: medical facilities,
LEDC: higher , some highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, lack of pre and post natal care, poverty, poor sanitation
HIV in world. >40 million living with it, >25 mil of those in sub-sah afr
Causes of death in MDCs
Heart disease Strokes Cancer Wars Transport related accidents Stress and diet related diseases
Causes of death in LDCs
Respiratory diseases (tuberculosis) Parasitic diseases (malaria) Wars Natural disasters AIDS
Stage 1 of DTM
High fluctuating
High and fluctuating BR+DR. Over 30per1000
Reasons for high BR: high IMR, lack of contraception, child labour, religion
Reasons for high DR: lack of food security, poor hygiene, no clean water, disease (cholera)
Total Pop: low but balanced as both BR+DR high
Natural inc: stable/slow
E.g. A few remote groups
Stage 2 DTM
Early expanding
High BR: high IMR, lack of contraception, child labour, religion
Falling DR: improvement in food production, dec IMR, better hygiene, better transport, improved medical care
Total pop: rises as death rates fall
Natural inc: very rapid inc
E.g. Egypt, Kenya, India
Stage 3 DTM
Late expanding
Fall in BR 20per1000: lower IMR so less pressure, industrialisations, cost of children, contraception
DR continue to fall: improvement in food production, dec IMR, better hygiene, better transport, improved medical care
Total pop: rising, gap between BR+DR narrows, slower increase
Natural inc: inc slows
E.g. Brazil
Stage 4 DTM
Low fluctuating
BR low and fluctuating: trends/fashion, pro-natalist policies?
Low DR: improvement in food production, dec IMR, better hygiene, better transport, improved medical care
Total pop: high, balanced by low BR+DR
Natural inc: stable/slow
E.g. USA, UK, France
Stage 5 DTM
Decline
BR still low and fluctuating: trends/fashion, pro-natalist policies?
DR may inc slightly: more ageing pop, other ‘killers’ - cancer,lifestyle
Total pop: high but going into decline due to ageing pop
Natural inc: slow decrease
E.g. Germany
Advantages of DTM
- useful to describe pop over time
- can apply to all countries
- provide start point to study demographic changes over time
- timescales flexible
- easy to interpret
- enables comparisons between countries
Disadvantages of DTM
- not as good as prescriptive model
- eurocentric: assumes all countries folloe europe sequence od socio-economic change
- some newly industrialising countries e.g. Singapore. Follow but faster
- less evidence places like sub-sah afr will follow. Areas DR is high more likely due to health stuff than socio-economic changes
- 5th stage not in original
Population strucure
Proportion of males and females in an area usually in form of age distribution
Population pyramid
Bar graph to show population strucure
Dependency ratio
Shows relationship between economically active pop and non-economically active pop.
Higher ratio: more non-active
(Pop 0-19) + (pop 60+) / pop 20-59
Support ratio
Inverse of dependency ratio
Juvenility index
Shows proportion of younger people in the pop
Pop0-19/ pop20-59
Old age index
Shows proportion of elderly people in pop
Pop60+/ pop20-59
Population pyramids can show…
- results of BR+DR in specific age groups
- effects of migration (if regional or local scale)
- effects of events like war, famine, disease
- indication of life expectancy of a country
Population pyramid for stage 1 DTM
Concave - high DR
Short - low LE
Wide base - high BR
Population pyramid for stage 2 DTM
Bit higher than 1 - higher LE
Triangular sides - DR falling
Wide base - high BR
Population pyramid for stage 3 DTM
Convex - falling DR+IMR
Narrower base - BR falling
Population pyramid for stage 4 DTM
Higher - higher LE
Sides more convex/vertical - low DR
Narrow base - low BR
More balanced age structure
Population pyramid for stage 5 DTM
Higher - higher LE
Wider top - ageing pop
Narrow base - low BR
What increases as country develops?
LE % pop classed as urban Standard of living Adult literacy rate Amount spent on healthcare Quality of life
What decreases as a country develops
Death, mortality rates Dependency on agriculture IMR Natural increase Rate of urban growth Birth and fertility rates
