Population Change Flashcards
Birth rate
Number of live births per 1000 people per year per country
Death rate
Number of deaths per 1000 people people per year in a country
Fertility rate
Number of live births per 1000 women of normal reproductive age (15-49) in a country
Total fertility rate
Average number of children a woman in a population has in her life time
Life expectancy
Number of years a person can expect to live
Longevity
The increase in life expectancy over a period of time
Natural change
Birth rate - death rate
Infant mortality rate
Number of deaths of children under the age of one year per 1000 live births per year
Migration rate
Measure of balance between immigration and emigration
Net migration
Immigration - emigration per 1000 people per year
Population density
Number of people per unit area of land
Usually people per km2
Advantages of vital rates/development indicators
Can be used to compare countries
Can show level of development as suggest what living conditions are like in country
Disadvantages of vital rates/development indicators
Only consider one measure (composite indicators are better)
There’s variation within a country (not shown on national level)
Population density doesn’t indicate development (countries can have high and be rich or poor)
My be a reason why there is a high or low indicator that might not reflect level of development accurately (high br in Philippines due to banned low contraception - not low development but suggests so)
Fertility rates are higher or lower in more developed countries?
Lower: small fall in pop e.g. Italy, Russia, Portugal. >50 nations with less than 2.1 per woman UN predict no. will rise
(Higher for less developed: tradition is important women pressured, low literacy rates, youthful population)
Mortality rates higher or lower in MEDCs?
Lower: medical facilities,
LEDC: higher , some highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, lack of pre and post natal care, poverty, poor sanitation
HIV in world. >40 million living with it, >25 mil of those in sub-sah afr
Causes of death in MDCs
Heart disease Strokes Cancer Wars Transport related accidents Stress and diet related diseases
Causes of death in LDCs
Respiratory diseases (tuberculosis) Parasitic diseases (malaria) Wars Natural disasters AIDS
Stage 1 of DTM
High fluctuating
High and fluctuating BR+DR. Over 30per1000
Reasons for high BR: high IMR, lack of contraception, child labour, religion
Reasons for high DR: lack of food security, poor hygiene, no clean water, disease (cholera)
Total Pop: low but balanced as both BR+DR high
Natural inc: stable/slow
E.g. A few remote groups
Stage 2 DTM
Early expanding
High BR: high IMR, lack of contraception, child labour, religion
Falling DR: improvement in food production, dec IMR, better hygiene, better transport, improved medical care
Total pop: rises as death rates fall
Natural inc: very rapid inc
E.g. Egypt, Kenya, India
Stage 3 DTM
Late expanding
Fall in BR 20per1000: lower IMR so less pressure, industrialisations, cost of children, contraception
DR continue to fall: improvement in food production, dec IMR, better hygiene, better transport, improved medical care
Total pop: rising, gap between BR+DR narrows, slower increase
Natural inc: inc slows
E.g. Brazil
Stage 4 DTM
Low fluctuating
BR low and fluctuating: trends/fashion, pro-natalist policies?
Low DR: improvement in food production, dec IMR, better hygiene, better transport, improved medical care
Total pop: high, balanced by low BR+DR
Natural inc: stable/slow
E.g. USA, UK, France
Stage 5 DTM
Decline
BR still low and fluctuating: trends/fashion, pro-natalist policies?
DR may inc slightly: more ageing pop, other ‘killers’ - cancer,lifestyle
Total pop: high but going into decline due to ageing pop
Natural inc: slow decrease
E.g. Germany
Advantages of DTM
- useful to describe pop over time
- can apply to all countries
- provide start point to study demographic changes over time
- timescales flexible
- easy to interpret
- enables comparisons between countries
Disadvantages of DTM
- not as good as prescriptive model
- eurocentric: assumes all countries folloe europe sequence od socio-economic change
- some newly industrialising countries e.g. Singapore. Follow but faster
- less evidence places like sub-sah afr will follow. Areas DR is high more likely due to health stuff than socio-economic changes
- 5th stage not in original
Population strucure
Proportion of males and females in an area usually in form of age distribution
Population pyramid
Bar graph to show population strucure
Dependency ratio
Shows relationship between economically active pop and non-economically active pop.
Higher ratio: more non-active
(Pop 0-19) + (pop 60+) / pop 20-59
Support ratio
Inverse of dependency ratio
Juvenility index
Shows proportion of younger people in the pop
Pop0-19/ pop20-59
Old age index
Shows proportion of elderly people in pop
Pop60+/ pop20-59
Population pyramids can show…
- results of BR+DR in specific age groups
- effects of migration (if regional or local scale)
- effects of events like war, famine, disease
- indication of life expectancy of a country
Population pyramid for stage 1 DTM
Concave - high DR
Short - low LE
Wide base - high BR
Population pyramid for stage 2 DTM
Bit higher than 1 - higher LE
Triangular sides - DR falling
Wide base - high BR
Population pyramid for stage 3 DTM
Convex - falling DR+IMR
Narrower base - BR falling
Population pyramid for stage 4 DTM
Higher - higher LE
Sides more convex/vertical - low DR
Narrow base - low BR
More balanced age structure
Population pyramid for stage 5 DTM
Higher - higher LE
Wider top - ageing pop
Narrow base - low BR
What increases as country develops?
LE % pop classed as urban Standard of living Adult literacy rate Amount spent on healthcare Quality of life
What decreases as a country develops
Death, mortality rates Dependency on agriculture IMR Natural increase Rate of urban growth Birth and fertility rates
Ageing Population case study
UK
Why? People marrying later, choosing to have less children
Problems: money needed for residential homes, healthcare, social services, increase in long-term illnesses, inc dependency ratio, less money for youth - lead to out-migration
Problems for elderly: granny boom - women alone after partners die, can’t afford expensive residential homes, long waits for hospital operations
Benefits: creates jobs, target groups for businesses -M&S, many in good health and want to work after retirement age
Ageing Population
East Devon
Attractive to live, 2001 dependency ratio: 87.6%, volunteer work-babysitting
Meeting needs: hip high sockets, voice module/emergency chord, private health care - regular visits, public transport
In future: gov increasing retirement age - so give more taxes +not give pension as long, change amount of money state pension is
Youthful Population Case Study
Gambia
Problems and benefits
Problems: parents struggle to meet needs, gov doesn’t have enough money to build infrastructure needed, no running water, deforestation - firewood, hard to provide education (half day one set of children, other half day is another set)
Benefits: changing religious attitudes, contraception allowed, growth rate slowed, better healthcare, education of phys health, better education (esp for girls)
Gambia
Managing its population
Family planning: awareness campaigns, tv, radio adverts, contraception to local shops, growth rate fell 4.2-3%
Maternal and child health: free vaccinations for all children, educate, encourage spacing between children, reduces child deaths, reduces fertility rate - 7-6%
Managing resources: financial and technical help from Germany gov, Gambian authorities introduced forest management plan, restoring degraded areas, education preservation-risk of bushfire and overgrazing
Education: more girls, choose career over family, funding from world food programme -meal everyday, 3/4 women can’t read or write, 1/4 children aged 10-14 work
Migration
Movement of people from one permanent home to another
Destination /host
Where migrant goes to
Origin/source/sender
Where migrant comes from
Immigration
Moving into a country
Emigration
Moving out of a country
Net migration
Difference between in and out migration
Internal migration
Migration within the same country
International migration
Movement into another country
Voluntary migration
When people choose to migrate because of one or more reason
Economic migration
Voluntary migration moves for work/job, usually to improve standard of living
Forced migration
Compulsory migration when people have little/no choice about moving
Refugee
UN:
Person unable/unwilling to return to their homeland for fear of persecution based on reasons of race, religion, ethnicity or political opinion. Or those who have been displaced forcibly by other factors.
Asylum seeker
Formal application by a refugee to arrive and stay and live in a country when they arrive in that country.
Push factor
Negative reasons to live somewhere
Pull factor
Positive reasons to live somewhere
Distance decay effect
Further away from destination the less people migrate there
Remittances
Money sent back home from working somewhere
Categories of migration
Scale: international/regional Direction: rural to urban or vice versa Distance: long, short Decision making: forced, voluntary Cause: economic, social, environmental
Case studies of migration between MEDCs
Brain drain of doctors, scientists
UK, Germany to USA
Voluntary
Case studies of migration LEDCs to MEDCs
Large numbers of refugees and asylum seekers
E.g. Syria to Rwanda
Forced
Case studies of migration MEDCs to LEDCs
Aid workers
E.g. EU countries to Ethiopia
Voluntary
Impacts of migration on area of origin
Population structure
Younger migrate - ageing pop
Males more likely to migrate
BRs fall - number of young decline - DRs rise
Impacts of migration on area of destination
Population strucure
Proportion of younger increase
More males as more likely to migrate
BR inc, DR dec
Effects of migration on destination
Social
Marriage rates rise
New food, clothes, music
New group -friction esp if cultural identity maintained
Effects of migration on origin
Social
Marriage rates down
Family structures break down
Loss of males and young families -loss of cultural leadership
Effects of migration on destination
Economic
labour surplus-drive economy
remittances-economic loss
pressure on resources
export skills to origin
Effects of migration on origin
Economic
those with skills leave - labour shortages
farming declines
benefits from remittances
on return-migrants with new skills
6 factors that affect population
Health - control of disease, birth control, IMR
Education - literacy levels, health ed., age compulsory
Social Provision - clean water supply, level of care for elderly
Cultural factors - religious views on birth control, role of women
Political factors - impact of war/conflict, access to healthcare, taxation support
Environmental factors - frequency of hazards, conditions breed disease
Issues of youthful population
Need for healthcare Provide education Need for employment Need to raise retirement age Need to increase taxes Need for housing of appropriate quality for growing pop
Issues of ageing population
Need more healthcare
Looking after elderly on community
Need for private healthcare
Role of family: pressure to care for elderly
Need for private pensions
Need for additional and specialist housing
Push factors
Lack of services Natural disasters Poor faming Poor housing Unemployment Lower LE
Pull factors
Education Housing Health care Better jobs or more jobs Pleasant climate or scenery More reliable food supplies
Impact of migration on Population Structure
Poland to UK
Voluntary, economic, international
Poland joined EU in 2004, between 2004-2006 >half million Polish workers to uk
Push factors: high unemployment 18%in urban, 40%in rural
Pull factors: more jobs, earn 4-5x more in uk, incentive to stay few years and go home with savings is good
Impact on origin: ageing pop, unemployment inc
Impact on destination: polish contributed £2.5bn to uk economy 2005, helps uk ageing pop, migrants work for less-controls inflation, unemployment for uk citizens, some migrants exploited by employers
Refugee case study
Syria
Forced
Causes: over 4 years armed conflict, civil war from wanting democracy, UN evidence of both sides committed war crimes, gov and rebel forces accused of using civilian suffering as method of war
Effects on Syria: by march2015: 220,000 killed, 11m fled homes, almost 4m fled Syria, UN reported 2015 economic loss:$202bn, 4/5 Syrians living in poverty
Effects on hosts: neighbours Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey received most migrants, pressure on services, social tension between refugees and locals
Anti-natalist policy
Encourage people to have smaller families
Aim to decrease/slow population
Pro-natalist policy
Encourages people to have more children
Aim to increase population
China One Child Policy
1970s leading to famine unless severe changes
States each couple: not marry until late 20s, only 1 successful pregnancy, must be sterilised after 1st or abortions, receive 5-10% pay rise, have priority housing. Can have 2in rural for farmers.
If disobey: 10%salary cut, heavy fine, family pay for education and healthcare, pay cuts for fellow workers.
Problems: ethical, women under pressure, officials have power over private lives, society prefer sons-daughter abandoned
Benefits: no famine, fall in BR 1996:33.4-17.0%, pop slowed for enough food, inc technology, higher standards of living
Future changes: april2016:2 children, attitude of daughter better
Another anti-natalist policy?
Kerala, India
Policy: improve education, provide adult literacy in villages, educate benefits of smaller families, reduce IMR, improve healthcare, free contraception and advice
Pro-natalist policy case study:
France
High fertility- 2001: 2.1. Caused by: late marriages, single parents. Reasons: gov pursued polices to boost BR and allow women to pursue career with decent child care.
2005 onwards: pay £1064 for third child, generous maternity grants, fa,ily allowances to inc purchasing power of families, maternity leave on near full pay 20weeks 1st child, 40+ weeks for 3rd, 100% mortgage
Success! Highest BR in Europe
Another pro-natalist country?
Russia
Reason: may lose 1/3 of pop by mid century due to:
Falling BR, emigration, poor healthcare system.
2007 policy: Vladimir Putin -scheme for encouraging children. Women who have 2or3 children receive $9000 for education/home buys.
Regional policy: govenor of Ulynaovsk region offer prizes for children born on “sex day”.
Success! Regions BR risen by 4.5% in one year.
An optimist is
Someone with a positive attitude
A pessimist is
Someone with a negative attitude
Case study optimist:
Ester Boserup 1965
3 pieces of evidence
Believed that as pop increases the human race will find solutions to provide more food. The belief that “necessity is the mother of invention”
1960s: concern for pop explosion, but pop slowed
1970s: oil crisis and fear of lack of food but new oil reserves found and Green Revolution and intensification of agriculture-more food.
1980s: concerns elephants go extinct, but still here.
Case study of pessimist
Thomas Malthus 1798
3 pieces of evidence
Pop grows geometrically but food supply increases arithmetically. The result is that population exceeds food production and so there is widespread famine.
- Wars and famine - Ethiopia
- Food and agriculture organisation says >800m malnourished and 2bn lack food security
- Climate change
Optimum population
The population where the quality of life of the people of a country p/region is the highest possible at a given level of technological development.
There’s balance between pop and resources.
Over population
Situation occurs when any increase in population reduces the average quality of life of the population.
Too many people relative to resources and technology available.
Under population
Situation occurs when an increase in population could increase the quality of life.
Too few people to use resources efficiently for a given level of technology.
Sustainable development
Development which meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability for future generations to meet their own needs.
Economically sustainable considers
Ability of economies to maintain themselves when resources decline/become too expensive and when population dependent these resources are growing.
Environmental principles of sustainability
People heart of concerns about development
Countries should have right to exploit own environment, but shouldn’t damage other countries.
Economic principles of sustainability
Right to development must be fulfilled to meet fairly, the needs of the present and future generations.
All countries should cooperate in eliminating poverty in order to decrease differences in standard of living.
8 millennium goals
1 eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2 achieve universal primary education 3 promote gender equality and empower women 4 reduce child mortality 5 improve maternal health 6 combat HIV/AIDS and other diseases 7 ensure environmental sustainability 8 develop a goal partnership for development
The sustainability dilemma
More developed countries continue to demand resources and less developed countries continue to supply resources that make countries more affluent.
Replaced in 2015 by the 17 sustainable development goals.
Agenda 21
A UN sustainable development programme agreed at variable Earth summits. Govs draw up national plans/strategies for sus dev. E.g. Local authority: effective monitoring of air and water quality.
Authorities in developing countries can introduce local pop management by: training nurses for all elements of care and inc levels of female literacy. And in MEDCs e.g. Train medical stuff to care of elderly.
