Population Flashcards
Population distribution
How the population is spread out across a country
Population change
An increasing or decreasing population
Population
Total number of people living in a country
Birth rate
Number of live births per 1000 per year
Death rate
Number of live deaths per 1000 per year
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her childbearing years
Replacement Rate
Average number of children born to a woman at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration
Infant mortality rate
Number of deaths occurring in children under 5 years of age per 1000 live births in a year
Life expectancy
The average number of years a person is expected to live up to
Population projection
Predictions of the composition of the future population based on current fertility and mortality trends
Population momentum
Tendency for a population to grow despite a fall in the birth rate or fertility levels due to a high concentration of people in the pre-childbearing and childbearing years. As these people grow older and move through their reproductive years the greater number of births will exceed deaths in older populations and so population will grow
Ageing population
When the median age of the population rises to leave many elderly dependents
Economically active
The working cohort aged 15-64
Dependency ratio
The proportion of young and elderly dependents in a country, compared to the economically active
Demographic Transition Model
A model which shows the population change over time of a country, and trends in birth and death rates
Population structure
The composition of a given population, split into age and gender
Refugee
An individual who has left their country as they are unable or unwilling to return back due to fear of persecution
Asylum seeker
Someone who is hoping to receive refugee status in the destination country
Internally displaced person
A person who is forced to flee their home but remain within their country’s borders
Physical factors affecting population
- Good climate
- Accessibility
- Flat land
- Fertile land
- Access to water supply
GNI per capita
Country’s gross national income/mid-year population
BRICS
Brazil Russia India China South Africa
MINT
Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey
CIVETS
Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa
RICs
Recently industrializing: Chile
Describe what CPEs are + example
Centrally planned economies, e.g: North Korea which are socialist countries under strict rules. Living standards are higher than LEDCs but freedom of speech are limited
Internal migration CHINA
- Since 1978, 160 million migrants left rural areas to seek work in the urban areas
Favoured settlement locations
Flat land
Fertile land
Ease of accessibility/communication
Water supply
HIC, MIC, LIC income
HIC = $12,000 + MIC = $1000 - 12,000 LIC = Less than $1000
GNI per capita
Gross national income/mid year pop.
Why is birth rate high in LICs/stage 1
Children for labour Lack of family planning education High IMR so more replacement for dead children Low status of women Lack of contraception To look after parents in old age
Why does death rate drop in stage 2?
Better healthcare Lower doctor to patient ratio Better access to clean water More food supply Vaccinations Higher life expectancy Medicines are more affordable
Why is death rate high?
Lack of clean water Limited food Poor hygiene Overcrowding disease poverty
Describe demographic transition model stages
Stage 1: BR and DR both high Stage 2: DR drops BR remains high Stage 3: BR begins to drop Stage 4: Br and DR low Stage 5: BR goes below death rate
Factors influence total fertility rate
Location of residence Status of women Economic prosperity Need for children Health of mother Level of ambition Religion
Explain location of residence
- More rigid social pressures on women to have children
- Fewer economic and educational opportunities for women
- Less state control (e.g: one child policy not as strict in rural areas so they can have kids for income)
Explain status of women
Higher status of women means they have greater freedom to decide if and when they want kids. Less social pressure on them and they can focus on careers
Explain religion
Contraception, sterilization not favoured by religious people
Economic prosperity
The more money people have, the less children they’d have as they don’t have a need for more children to bring in income. Don’t view children as economic assets
Bulges in population pyramid slopes shows…
Immigration
Slices in p.pyramid shows…
emigration
Wide base shows…
High BR
Narrow apex shows..
High BR, lower life expectancy
Dependency ratio
(pop aged <15 + >65)/16-64 people x 100
Why are triangular graphs used?
- show a large amount of data
- Groupings can be recognised easily
- dominant characteristics can be shown
- classifications can be made
Natural increase
BR minus DR ( BR-DR)
Why may DTM not be accurate
- data based off only 3 countries, England, Sweden and Wales
- It includes effects of migration
Doubling time
Time needed for population to double in size. Calculated by 70/natural increase
Concave slopes
High DR
Straight sides
Low DR
Types of forced migration
Conflict-induced
Disaster-induced
Development induced
Advantages of an ageing population
- grandparents may look after kids so parents can work
- Elderly have social skills
- After retirement, invest a lot of money back into the economy with vacations etc
Disadvantages
- workforce shrinks
- Pensions
- Care homes
- Pressure on healthcare as elderly are most vulnerable
- Pressure on economically active
Explain how mountainous areas affect population distribution
Mountainous areas make it difficult to construct buildings and roads. They are often inaccessible and remote. For example in Cambodia, the highlands comprise the Elephant Mountains and Cardamom Mountains have poor soils, unfavourable climatic conditions and shortage of water for any large scale agricultural operations which
give rise to overall sparse population.
Explain how the climate affects population distribution
Areas with extreme climates such as hot and cold deserts make it difficult to grow crops and access water. Locations with favourable climates tend to be more densely populated as food can be produced and it provides a more comfortable environment to live in.
Explain how natural resources in an area affects population distribution
A lack of natural resources in an area presents significant challenges to economic development. The availability of natural resources encourages a higher population density as these can be processed and used in industry and manufacturing.
Explain how natural hazards affect population distribution
Locations that regularly experience natural hazards can discourage people from settling in the area. Regions that experience no or few natural disasters are more likely to have a lower population density as they are safer.
How does the fertility of the land affect population distribution
If land is infertile humans are unable to grow food leading to a low population density. E.g: West of China - Gobi desert - dry. Lack of commercial activity
How does income affect population distribution
Regions with little or no economic opportunities tend to be sparsely populated as people are unable to secure a regular income. The availability of jobs and economic activities within a region leads to an increase in population density. For example in China, internal migration to Shenzhen due to work in urban area
How does infrastructure affect population distribution
A good transport infrastructure attracts a high population density as people are able to travel and commute easily. It also allows the free movement of goods which leads to the development of industry, providing jobs to people in the local area.
How does crime rate affect population distribution
High levels of crime discourage people from settling in an area, leading to a low population density.
How does conflict affect population distribution
Civil war and persecution can lead to a low population density as people move to escape violence.
Describe global population
75% live within 1000 km of the sea
85% live in areas less than 500m high
Less than 10% live in the Southern hemisphere
What is a millionaire city
A city with one or more than 1 million people
South Africa population case study
Distribution is very uneven
Some parts of the core economic regions, such as Gauteng have population densities of less than 5 per km2
High population densities are found in areas where there are good mineral resources such as gold and diamond and good trading potential like Durban and Cape Town.
General trend is a decrease from the south east to north west, reflecting the distribution of rainfall.
S.A had 3 main periods of internal migration during 20th and 21st century
- Economic migration linked with industrial development until 1950
- forced migration related to the APARTHEID movement
- voluntary migration following collapse of Apartheid movement
Industry developed between the 2 world wars. Many black people moved from countryside to cities to work as migrant labourers in the gold and diamond mines.
Between 1948 and 1994, the white National Party had political control of South Africa and set up the apartheid policy. Under this policy, 4 million black people were forcibly removed from “white” areas and relocated to the “homelands”.
Severe influx control - restrictions on black people entering the white towns
Since the end of the Apartheid era, many black people have again migrated to larger cities for work but poverty forces many to live in substandard housing on the edge of towns.
S.A’s urban population grew from 55% in 1995 post the apartheid census to 65% in 2015, but much of this growth was due to natural increase.
2.4 mullion blacks left white-owned commercial farms between 1994 and 2004.
Circular migration - worker moves repeatedly between home and work areas (4 million people)
Many women usually do this
What does the DEMOGRAPHIC transition model show
Death rates fall before birth rates
Population expands
What is a limitation of demographic transition model?
Data is only based on 3 countries: England, Sweden and Wales. Not only is the timescale for these countries longer than many LEDCs but there are other types of DTMs e.g: Ireland’s DTM was based on falling birth rates and rising death rates due to emigration after the 1845 famine
Describe what stage 1 of the DTM shows
High birth AND high death rates:
High birth because:
- parents want kids for labour
- high infant mortality rate - replaces dead kids
- look after them in old age
- continue the family name
High death:
- lack of clean water
- no vaccinations
- overcrowding
- poor healthcare services
- disease
- poor hygiene and sanitation
Describe stage 2 of the DTM
birth rate remains high but DEATH rate FALLS rapidly
Population growth is rapid
Death rate drops because:
- better healthcare
E.g: Sudan
Describe stage 3 of the DTM
BIRTH RATE DROPS and DEATH rate REMAINS LOW
population growth continues but at a lower rate
Birth rates drop because:
- lower infant mortality
- cost of raising children increases
- emancipation of women - jobs
- people want smaller families
- contraception
- better hygiene - better healthcare
E.g: Brazil
Describe stage 4 of the DTM
Low death and low birth
UK
Describe stage 5
Death rate exceeds birth rate
Population Decline
Japan
Formula for natural increase:
Crude death rate - crude birth rate
Explain how status of women affects total fertility rate
This is assessed by the gender-related development index. In countries where status of women are low, birth rates are high because they don’t get to decide how many children they have. E.g: in Singapore where status of women has improved birth rates have fallen.
How does the level of education and material ambition affect TFR
The more educated parents are, the less children they will have. Middle income families with high aspirations but limited means tend to have the smallest families to improve their standard of living. Poor people with limited resources or ambition tend to have large families
How does location of residence affect TFR?
People in rural areas tend to have more children than in urban areas because of more social pressures on women
Greater freedom and less state control e.g: CHina’s one child policy enforced less strictly can increase TFR
Fewer educational and economic opps for women
How does religion affect TFR
Most religions are pro-natalist and opposed to sterilisation and birth control. In HICs, religion is not followed strictly.
How does the health of the mother affect TFR
Women who are not healthy many become pregnant more frequently because they experience a higher infant mortality and more unsuccessful pregnancies
Why is a woman’s life expectancy more likely to be longer than men
Men partake in more strenuous physical labour
Men have self-destructive lifestyles: smoke and drink
What does a wide base on a pop pyramid show
High birth rate
What do straight sides show
Low death rates
What do concave slopes show
High death rates
Bulges in the slope show what?
Immigration or in-migration
Benefits of triangular graphs
- show a large amount of data
- groupings can be recognized easily
- dominant characteristics can be made
- classifications can be made
Why is fertility high in some countries but not others?
LICs tend to have a high infant mortality rate, for example DR Congo has an IMR of 70% and so the TFR is very high. On average, women have 4 children each to compensate for the death of their previous kids. Kids may be needed to work and earn money for the money, or for religious reasons, contraception is looked down upon or is simply unaffordable. There tend to be minimal family planning schemes in LICs. On the other hand in HICs such as Germany, religion is not followed as strictly and emancipation of women has occurred. They are career driven rather than focused on being domesticated.
Describe the advantages and disadvantages of a natalist policy
The anti-natalist policy was established in 1979, aiming to control the population growth in China which was starting to exceed its carrying capacity and hinder its economic growth, although many family planning initiatives had begun before it. The main cause of the introduction of the policy was the scarcity of food supply because from 1959 to 1961, the Great Chinese Famine killed an estimated 15 to 30 million people.
The effects of the policy were that the legal age for marriage was increased to 22 for men and 20 for women with the intention that if couples get married later, they’d have children later, and could possibly be for the fact that they would be more aware of family planning and more knowledgable to use contraception. The government awarded couples 5 yuan more pr month if they had only one child. Also, fines would be charged to anyone who had more than one child. In rural areas if they ran out of money to pay the fines, the government took a certain amount of produce from them, for example rice. Also, women were forced to have sterilisations and abortions if the ‘granny police’ found out they were having more than one child.
The advantages of this policy were that it was very effective as it prevented more than 250 million births and the growth rate fell significantly lower to 0.7%, helping to avoid surpassing China’s carrying capacity. Another possible advantage is that the one child policy helped to change the role of women in Chinese society because previously, women received very little educational opportunities due to following the traditional norms of being confined to the home. Having only one child helped to overcome these conventionalist views and allowed them to become more career oriented. This then led to another advantage, which was the financial benefits for families. The additional money per month and both parents working helped create economic stability for families which allowed them to spend more on education and healthcare for their children, increasing their quality of life.
However, there were many disadvantages too. Firstly, a huge gender imbalance was created in the country as there were 32 million more boys than girls which was due to males being more favoured to carry on the family name. This could have resulted in social problems such as reduced interaction between the 2 sexes. Also, the legitimacy of the policy can be rightfully questioned, as over 300 million women were forced to undergo sterilisation and abortions which violates the UN policies on reproductive rights. Furthermore, it created a huge financial burden for the government; up to 4% of the GDP was being spent each year on family planning initiatives which could have been used to contribute towards the country’s economic growth instead, hindering its development. Finally, a second policy (2 child) had to be introduced to increase the population slightly as the effects of it were so severe that the government realised that in the future, the workforce would shrink and there’d be a huge ageing population which would put pressure on the small economically active cohort.
Overall, the policy can be said to be successful in the short term as it fulfilled its aim of preventing a lot of births which if hadn’t been prevented, could have been destructive for China’s economy, however the need for the second child policy highlights the extremity of the policy which suggests it was not beneficial on its own in the long term and needed a reverse effect to allow the government to fix its consequences that are present even today, to prevent a collapse of the workforce in the future.
China population distribution case study
China’s current population of 1.4 billion is extremely unevenly distributed, with the Huanyong Line separating the very densely populated East with a population density of over 400 people per km2, from the west which has a population density of merely 10 people per km2. While the East accounts for 94% of the population, the west only contains 6%, although on the borders there are some slightly more densely populated areas. This is due to a range of physical and human factors.
Firstly, the steep slopes of the mountainous areas in the west due to the proximity of the Himalayas tend to restrict the amount of land available for agriculture as well as the development of industry and other economic activities, discouraging population growth as people want to reside in areas that are urbanised and can bring them good income and also places where farming can be easily done. The west has an extremely steep relief of land, ranging from 500 to 4000 metres above sea level while the east is max 500 m above sea level. Not only does the mountainous of the land make it difficult for the building of settlements, but also causes extreme variations in the temperature, which ranges from -13 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit. The cold harsh environment of the west makes it unsuitable to reside in. On the other hand, in the East the temperature is much more favourable. The winter temperature varies with latitude but it is usually the warmest in the sub-tropical south east with an average of 60 degrees farenheit. Furthermore, the dry grasslands and the Gobi desert makes the land infertile and hard to provide rain-fed agriculture.
In the east, the Central Zone of eastern China has the river Yangtze with its basins and floodplains, containing 1/3 of China’s population. Most of this region is made of very fertile farmlands with alluvial materials transported from the Loess Plateau upstream and deposited during the annual flooding of the major rivers. This means crops can be grown and sold, encouraging population growth as people in agriculture can earn a living if they reside here. Also, the basin and delta of the Pearl River is fertile and has a well-watered farmland.
Furthermore, the coastline is the most densely populated due to large-scale manufacturing and port facilities used for trade and commerce which provides jobs to many people. Also, China’s north east, known as Manchuria contains many heavy manufacturing industries, focused on the cities of Shenyang and Harbin. This not only implies the number of jobs it creates but also insinuates the extent to which the region is urbanised and has undergone huge economic development.
Consisting of a population of 1.4 billion, China’s population is extremely unevenly distributed with the east being much more densely populated than the west, having a population of 400 people per km2 while the west has merely 10 people per km2. To the east of the Huanyong Line which separates the east and west, 94% of the population resides which is significantly higher than the west, consisting of only 6% of the population. This is due to a variety of factors.
Firstly, Western China has an extremely mountainous terrain due to the proximity to the Himalayas, which means the land is around 500 m to 4000 m on average. This steep relief makes it impossible for agriculture which is a negative as people can’t grow crops to survive or make a living from, as well as increasing the difficulty of building settlements discouraging population growth in this region. Also, the dry grasslands and the infertility of the Gobi desert also discourages growth. On the other hand, eastern china has has a relatively low relief, with max 500 m above sea level which has allowed the development of roads and buildings, leading to urbanisation which attracts the population due to the ease of accessibility.
Furthermore, the climate in the East is much less varied compared to the west which has extreme variations with the climate ranging from -13 to 90 degrees farenheight. In the East, winter temperatures varies with latitude but on average, it is 60 Fahrenheit and is the warmest in the sub-tropical south east region. This warm winter climate is suitable for crops but also attracts more people due to a better quality of life and inability to withstand harsh temperatures. Another physical factor is the rivers in the Central Zone of Eastern China. The floodplains of the Yangtze river contains 1/3 of China’s population because most of this region is made of fertile farmlands with alluvial materials transported from the Loess Plateau upstream and deposited during the annual flooding of major rivers. This means crops can be grown and sold for people to make a living.
A human factor as to why the east is so densely populated is because of the availability of jobs. The eastern coastline is the most densely populated due to the large scale manufacturing and port facilities used for trade and commerce which involves a lot of secondary jobs. China is the world’s largest producer of rice, cotton and other items which invites foreign investment also exacerbated by its acceptance in the World Trade Organisation, increasing technological demand in these regions so quality of infrastructure and industries have improved. Also, China’s north east known as Manchuria is very densely populated because of the heavy manufacturing industry that has been formed by the Manchu soldiers capturing Han labourers and obliging them to settle there in 1644. The area soon became urbanised causing rural to urban migration as people seeked higher paid jobs in the core regions such as Manchuria and more modern Shanghai from the peripheral regions in the west
Kerala case study
Kerala, a largely agricultural state in south west India has had a huge improvement in healthcare, literacy rates and bringing down birth rates as well as having a high gender equality despite having a much lower per capita income than the rest of India.
A number of factors have accounted for these improvements. Firstly, the status of women in the region has risen significantly due to females being educated to the same standard of males, resulting in a female literacy rate of 90% which is substantially higher than the rest of India which is 50%. With so many females being educated, the fertility rate has dropped to just under the replacement level at 1.9. According to the World Bank, it is estimated that one year of female schooling reduces fertility by 10%. This can be explained because women have more autonomy in their lives to decide if at all and when they want children or whether they are more focused on careers, therefore being able to concentrate on other opportunities that could have otherwise conflicted with child raising. Female education may also assist in family planning, especially by facilitating knowledge of and access to contraception which has helped to bring down fertility rates, thus female education is a key factor behind these improvements.
However, despite the high literacy levels, women are marginalised in the economic process and have a lack of control over resources. The work participation rate for women is just 18% compared to 53% for men and they are concentrated in low paid jobs such as cottage industries and farming. The main ways of gaining access to economic resources are through participation in the labour market, establishing a business or taking part in shares although women’s share in the labour market in Kerala is among the lowest in India, which could be due to them being confined to the household, despite being educated, perhaps due to domestic abuse by their husbands. Men dominate the construction industry for example while women still continue to be discriminated against with regard to wages and working conditions therefore although gender equality is significantly higher than the rest of India, it can still be improved much more.
Another factor contributing towards these improvements is that there have been a number of self-help groups, for example Kudumbashree is a women’s empowerment group which has 3.7 million members, covering over 50% of Keralite households. This group implements its programs by having regular meetings as well as initiatives for women such as promoting micro enterprises and associated training and even having micro-finance operations that all participants pay into and receive from. Also, linkages with other government schemes and banks to extend credit facilities to women’s groups has also been implemented. Easy access to bank loans has presented women with opportunities to have control over their income, savings and investments which has had a positive impact on their self esteem and society in general, enabling them to take on more challenging ventures.
Overall, given the high education level of women, their good health and many government programmes, they are not considered completely disadvantaged as Kerala has resulted in significant improvements compared to the rest of India although there is still much to be done.
Forced migration in Nigeria case study
In 2014, the terrorist group Boko Haram kidnapped 276 schoolgirls from the village Chibok in the north.
Over 3 million people have been internally displaced including around 250,000 as a result of Boko Haram
Nigeria has the 3rd largest IDPs after Syria and Colombia
This has caused a strain on the relationship between Cameroon, Chad and Niger.
People in the region the group controls have been left unable to feed themselves after some 60% of the region’s farmers were displaced. Less land was farmed and less produce was harvested.
Over 33% of healthcare facilities have shut down
Many attacks on schools
3 main types of forced migration:
Conflict-induced displacement:
People who are forced to move due to armed conflict such as civil war. In 2015, there were around 15 million refugees. Could use Nigeria example
Development-induced:
People forced to move due to large-scale infrastructure such as dams, motorways. The South-North Water Diversion Porject in China has displaced around 345,000 people and the 3 Gorges Dam, 1.25 million people
Describe the 7 types of forced migrants
Refugees - who lives outside their country of nationality cannot return to their home country due to conflict or persecution
Asylum - who has left their country of origin and refugee status is still pending
Internally displaced person
Development displacees
Environmental and disaster displacees
Mumbai case study
Mumbai is India’s largest city with a population of 18 million which has urbanized rapidly over the past 60 years. From being a collection of fishing villages situated on 7 islands, it has diversified immensely to become a mega city, consisting of high-tech industries such as aerospace, engineering and computing. It is now the main financial, commercial and entertainment center of India, accounting for 25% of India’s industrial output, with over 6% of its total GDP and 40% of its foreign trade.
Causes of megacity growth:
The rapid development has been caused by the site of the fishing village soon becoming a port region as the site favoured development. Protected from the Arabian Sea by a peninsular art at the southern end of the Salsette Island, it had access to sea on two sides so the sheltered inlet was developed into a major port. This made it the closest port of entry for European travelers through the Suez Canal. The port became industrialized and imports and exports began. This meant that income was being generated from not only trading, but also tourism, an advantage of the urbanization.
Also, previously industry in Mumbai was mainly focused on textiles and precious metals but with the development of new industries, textile mills became non profitable so many mills were closed down to allow new industries to take their place, for example the Mafatal Mill was developed into an IT and business center. This could be both an advantage and disadvantage as although more jobs in the tertiary sector were generated which could contribute towards the economic development of India, many people working in textiles became unemployed as they didn’t have the IT skills that were required in the developing workforce. However, the new industries could have also helped in attracting migrants coming in for job opportunities in the expanding industries, bringing in new skills that could have contributed towards economic development.
Effects:
The main effect of the megacity growth was that there was a huge inequality in terms of wealth. Poverty levels had risen significantly, for example the 2011 census stated that Mumbai’s population was around 12 million and 9 million lived in slums, which is 75% of the city’s population. In the slum, people have no toilets and have to use the streets, resulting in the sewage waste causing 4000 cases of diseases such as typhoid per day. There are also many other toxic wastes in the slums and dangerous heavy metals.
However, the advantage of the Dharavi slum is that it has a recycling zone which could possibly be a sustainable option as everything gets recycled from plastics to computer although this can be very dangerous.
Furthermore, another disadvantage is that access to water supply is a huge problem for all residents. Standpipes come on for only 2 hours a day as water is rationed and are shared between many people which could contribute towards the spread of disease such as cholera.
Conclusion:
Although the urbanization and transformation into a mega city has had many advantages such as becoming more economically developed and improved infrastructure mainly due to the generation of jobs in various industries, too many people have moved into Mumbai in search of jobs, leaving them unemployed and so contributing towards inequality in income within the city as well as many social issues such as disease, poverty and lack of hygiene, therefore the disadvantages of the megacity growth seems to outweigh its advantages.
Russia: Pro-natalist
Russia’s low fertility rates were caused by a number of reasons, such as poor reproductive healthcare services, a lack of modern contraceptives, widespread abortions, high divorce rates, an ageing population and women choosing to have fewer children. The Soviet union and Russian Federation began a pro-natalist policy in 1936 with the intention to persuade couples to have babies.
Firstly, couples were rewarded for their second or third child. Women were offered 250,000 rubles, which could be used for domestic or educational purposes. This offered increased child benefits. Also, longer maternity leaves for women were given. Also, companies gave 40% of their previous salary if they gave up work to have kids. Also, the government imposed a tax on couples with no children from 1941 to 1990.
However still, in the 1970s fertility rates were below replacement levels which led to renewed policies. Putin introduced more measures, for example, increased parental leave, increased payments to mothers of second and third children.
Between 2006 and 2011, fertility had increased by 21% however the effects of the policies wore off year by year. Women’s intentions to have children had hardly changed after the implementation of the policy. In 2012, Putin announced he wanted the total fertility rate to be 1.75 by 2018 which resulted in demographers suggesting the state’s financial support will have to be doubled for success, while others suggested immigrant population should be increased. However, 2/3 of Russia’s population wanted a reduce in the immigrant population. Therefore, the population is likely to continue declining. The TFR is likely to remain less than 1.7 and number of people entering childbearing age will be 20% less.
To conclude, the failures of the policy outweighed the successes as despite putting so many policies in place, the population is still expected to decline with no intention of increasing. The only option which could have possibly increase TFR would have been an increase in the number of immigrants however this will cause social conflicts between the locals and migrants therefore it does not seem like the most logical option.
Japan - ageing population
Since 1945, Japan’s population structure has changed immensely due to a decrease in both birth and death rates to leave an ageing population which is increasing much more rapidly than other countries. The number of elderly people has increasing from 0.8 million in 1975 to over 2.5 million in 2000 while the percentage of young people has declined. By 2015, the youth only consisted of 13% of the population.
The causes of this include:
80% of women in Japan use contraception
Later marriage ages: 30 for men, 29 for women
75% of women working/more career drive/less inclined to raise child
High quality of healthcare increased life expectancy up to 87 years as well as peace and prosperity following WW2 and advanced medical and pharmacological technologies reduced prevalence of disease.
Law of 1948 made it easy for women to have abortions
South Korea: demographic dividend
The demographic transition in South Korea began after the Korean war in the late 1950s. South Korea made a rapid transition from a high to low fertility rate whilst simultaneously experiencing an annual growth of 6.7% between 1960 and 1990. The achievement of the dividend was a result of addressing population issues such as healthcare, education and economic policies.
Healthcare/family planning:
The country began its first national family planning campaign in 1962 to reduce unwanted births and the program was considered crucial for economic growth and development. The government invested in health centers to provide a range of services including family planning, for example field workers visited homes and provided family planning methods. The aim was to set a target of 45% of couples to use contraception. Consequently, the total fertility rate fell from 6.3 to 2.2 births per woman from 1960 to 1985, eventually reaching 1.3 in 2005. This was matched with an increase in life expectancy from 53 to 79 years during this period. Having fewer children meant that they had better educational and healthcare outcomes and they also could invest more into the economy on items like toys and clothes as they had more money to spend on their children.
Economic planning:
In 1950s, S.K’s economy was mainly based on farming and fishing which was weak however improving relations with Japan led to investment capital that strengthened agricultural industries. Also, the women in the labour supply rose to over 50% which not only boosted economic growth but also increased family incomes, again meaning they could spend it on luxury so money is invested back into the economy. Furthermore, rural construction programmes allowed unskilled workers to receive minimum wages. Between 1965 and 1991, capital investment was increased by more than 8% per worker. Also, S.K followed an export-oriented development strategy for its economic policy where exports became more than 50% of the country’s GDP, with China as its major trading partner, allowing the growth of its economy.
Education:
Investments in education led to South Korea having one of the most educated populations in the world as 63% of 25 to 34 year olds have a college degree. The shift to universal schooling was necessary as primary education only served 54% of the children. After the improvement, 97% of kids attended school. This then contributes towards economic development through the skilled workforce.
Syria Case study
In Syria, the repression of the ruling Assad regime and the emergence of the fundamentalist Islamic group ISIS has led to the displacement of over 10 million people.
The conflict began as a civil war, but extended to include parts of Iraq when isis declared Syria and Iraq an Islamic Caliphate.
This has resulted in many people going into neighbouring countries - 4.3 million refugees
Impact on Lebanon:
- More than 1.4 million Syrians
- 50% children
- This is around 25% of Lebanon’s population
- Most refugees are in poverty
- Lebanon has highest # of refugees per capita
- Strain on schools
- Strain on hospitals
- Electricity
- Water systems
- The humanitarian appeal has only received around 1/8 of its target amount of funds.
- Schools have been forced to provide places for up to 100,000 Syrian Children, with many not attending school.
Jordan:
Zaatari refugee camp is the world’s second largest refugee camp and now the fourth largest in Jordan
According to the Geneva Convention on refugees, the burden of taking in refugees should not fall on a small number of countries but should be shared out./
Benefits of an ageing population
Elderly may look after their grandchildren and allow both parents to work, allowing household income to increase. For example in South Africa, “granny” culture occurs to allow the women to work.
Elderly people are viewed as an important target market - the “grey economy”. Allows money to be invested back into the economy due to holiday companies, health care providers
Disadvantages of an ageing population
Strain on healthcare
Pensions - 26% of Japanese pop is over 65.
Care homes
Depletion of labour force
Burden on working population to serve dependent population
A need for in-migration to fuel an increase in work force
Why is the ageing population increasing
This is due to a combination of the time-delayed impact of high fertility levels after the second world war and more recent improvements in health that reduce death rates.
BASICALLY - falling birth AND falling death rates
What is the elderly dependency ratio
Indicates the balance between working age people and the older population they must support.
What can Japan do to reduce ageing population
Raise taxes
Raise retirement age
Cutting back on social welfare programmes
Increasing care in people’s homes
How to prevent anti-trafficking
TVPA act 2000 encourages governments to join in the fight against trafficking
Protection - increased efforts to protect foreign national victims as well as non-immigrants
Prosecution - of traffickers related to forced labour
Prevention - to assist other governments to reduce trafficking
- Increase public awareness about the risks involved as well as designing policies
- Governments can begin by having up-to-date registration of births and migration into an area
- By allowing trade unions, workers rights are more likely to be protected and trafficking reduced
Which populations are at risk of trafficking?
Refugees and migrants
LGBTI
People with disabilities
Stateless people
Describe the demographic dividend
It is an increase in the number of adults in a population. It occurs when fertility rates decline and death rates fall, causing economic growth. However the lag time between falling death rates and birth rates is not immediate and so produces a buldge that surges through age groups. DEPENDENCY RATIO DECREASES
Describe the benefits of the dividend
- Increased labour supply, although this depends on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ extra workers.
- Increase in savings. As the number of dependents decreases, people can save more and not spend it on healthcare and other things unnecessarily
- Decrease in fertility rates results in healthier women and fewer social and economic pressures at home. This allows people to invest more on their only child for better educational outcomes
How can dividend be achieved
Falling fertility and falling death rates - family planning, better healthcare, improve gender equality
South Korea’s demographic dividend
South Korea made a rapid transition from high to low fertility between 1960 and 1990. This was a springboard for economic growth. They addressed population issues whilst investing in reproductive health programmes, education and economic policies to create infrastructure and manufacturing.
Korea followed an aggressive population policy by investing in health centres to provide family planning.
Field workers visited homes and provided family planning info.
The gvmt set a target of 45% of married couples to use family planning
Between 1950 to 1975, fertility dropped from 5.4 children per woman to 2.9.
EDUCATION:
- education strategy shifted to universal schooling
- education previously only served 54% of children
- “production oriented education” would provide ppl with knowledge about skills needed to achieve economic development
- 97% of school age children attended school in 1990.
ECONOMIC PLANNING:
- In 1950s, economy was largely based on farming and was weak
- Improved relations with Japan led to investment capital that strengthened agricultural, fishing and manufacturing industries including shipping.
- gvmt also addressed unemployment through a rural construction programme that provided minimum wages for workers involved in the construction of infrastructure e.g: dams + roads
3 disadvantages of a youthful population
Young people need to be educated - providing schools and teachers are expensive. Resources for lessons are difficult to access, and costly to buy.
Young children need healthcare - for example, immunisations. This is expensive for a country to provide
In the future, more children will reach child bearing age, putting more pressure on the health care service.
Gambia - youthful population case study
The Gambia is the smallest African country and 95% of Gambia’s population are Muslim. There has been a taboo on contraceptives and the birth rate is high, on
average each woman in her life time will have 5.67 children. The birth rate is 29.4 per 1000 population and for every 1000 children born 11 mothers will die in child birth.
People do not live much be 60, the life expectancy for women is 63.3 and for men 60.6. It is thought that the population will double every 28 years.
The Gambia is an LIC with a GDP per capita of $470.00 and there is not enough money to build infrastructure and develop urban areas sustainably. Healthcare is very limited and the infant mortality rate is 60.2 per 1000.
Problems having a young population - High dependency ratio.
Financial problems – not having enough money to feed and support the growing
family. Malnutrition is common.
Homes often don’t have electricity and are overcrowded.
Sanitation is very poor.
Desertification of the forests, people use the wood for fires housing and selling. The
land left ends up as desert therefore making the temperature rise.
Not enough education, there is a shortage of toilet facilities and educational material,
often schools adopted a 2 shift system some children educated in the morning and
some later in the day. Teachers are poorly paid and can work up to 12 hours a day.
1 in 3 - 14 year olds have to work to help support the family.
Effects of megacity growth
Unemployment - Mumbai - 9 million people living in slums out of the 12 million people. 2/3
Provision of services is inadequate
High doctor to patient ratio - pressure on healthcare: 4000 cases if typhoid a day
Increased traffic congestion
Increased air pollution
Declining water quality - In Mumbai, pumps are only available for 2 hours a day
Disadvantages of an elderly population
A greater number of elderly dependents means countries suffer from the burden of funding prolonged retirement for them. In France, life expectancy after retirement has already reached 21 years for men, 26 for women. More money has to be invested in care homes
Explain the ways in which a demographic dividend can be achieved
Falling birth rates - higher ratio of economically active to young dependents
Falling death rates - more people remain in EA sector
In migration
How can the dividend be achieved? Measures taken?
Birth rates and death rates must fall. Women must be provided with voluntary family planning information. In Rwanda, family planning investments have led to lower fertility due to increased child survival as child mortality rate decreased by 50%. Modern contraceptive use has increased more than fourfold, decreasing birth rate.
What happens after the dividend?
Dependency ratio begins to increase again. The cohort that formed the dividend retires
With a high number of dependents relying upon a smaller generation following behind them, the dividend becomes a liability, seen in Japan.
Explain the causes of forced migration
Conflict induced displacement:
This includes people forced to move due to armed conflict such as civil war, violence or persecution based on their nationality, race or social group.
In 2015, there were around 15 million refugees and approx 40 million IDPs
Development induced displacement:
People are forced to move due to large-scale infrastructure, mining and deforestation.
The South-North Water Diversion Project in China has displaced around 345,000 people
Disaster induced displacement:
Natural disasters
Difference between population projection and momentum
Population projection is an estimate/prediction of a future population [1].
Population momentum refers to population growth/decline which continues despite fertility rates falling/increasing [1].
