Population - 4.2 Demographic Transition Flashcards
Stage 1 of DTM
High death rate due to little medical care.
High birth rate as there is no birth control.
Death rate fluctuates due to plagues.
Stage 2 of DTM
Death rate declines with medical developments, improved nutrition and sanitation.
Birth rate remains high as children are still an economic advantage as industrialisation is only in its early stages.
Difference between BR and DR increases.
Stage 3 of DTM
Death rate lower and slowly decreasing as continued medical and nutritional improvements.
Birth rate starts to decrease rapidly as improved education on contraception and decreased economic value of children due to increasing urbanisation.
Declining difference between BR and DR.
Stage 4 of DTM
Death rate remains low as improvements in education continues and enhanced welfare provisions.
Birth rate declines as now economic independence of women and improved contraception and declining desirability in highly urban societies.
Stage 5 of DTM
Some people think that after eventual deindustrialisation takes place in a country, the 5th stage will show a period of permanently low BR, below the DR and a natural decrease of a country’s population. It is paired with high economic development and results in an ageing population.
Uses of the DTM model
A good description of general trends.
Provides a basis for comparison between countries.
Predictive in that ultimate decline in fertility will occur and tries to offer explanation of transitions.
Provides a starting point for more sophisticated models.
Limitations of the DTM model
Derived from a limited database.
Does not predict total population numbers since migration not included.
Impact of external influences from other countries not included.
Does not predict length of transitional period.
