polling Flashcards
impact of polling in 1992
predicted a labour win so more conservatives voted than expected (TO was 78%)
how did 2015 polling impact turnout
predicted a labour and SNP coalition so more cons voted and more labour and SNP voted making the TO 65%
how did polling in 2001 impact TO
created a forgone conclusion so only 59% voted
how ere the 2017 polls misleading
suggested a 5-22% lead for conservative but resulted in a hung parliament
indyref polling being wrong
suggested vote for independance would be 51% at some point
polling in the 1979 election
suggested consisitently predicted a con win by 5 - 12%, and they won by a 7% lead
how did the 1992 polls fail
didnt account for shy tories in the polls and predicted a labour hung parliament, when major actually won a 20 seat majority
polling in 1997
consistently predicted around 20% lead
how was brexit polling wrong
consitently predicted that remain would win by a narrow margin
how is refrom currently polling apr 2024
9-15%
con polling apr 2024
18-28%
lab polling apr 2024
39 - 49 %