Political mobilisation Flashcards
Theory of rational voting
Anthony Downs, (1957)
Based on people’s rational calculations. Voting is the function of the probability that your vote will matter x the benefit you get from the election minus the cost of voting
People should only vote if the probabilty that there votes will matter and that their preffered candidate will win is going to be greater than the cost of voting.
One big problem is that if we take it seriously in practice no one should vote. However many still turn out.
Re-model of Downs theory
Riker and Ordershook (1968)
Should only vote if our vote will matter and preffered candidate will will plus civic duty is greater than cost of voting
Reason why we turn out to vote is not so much about changing policy but think about the duty to turn out to vote which drives us
So the size of civic duty untilatmley impacts whether we turnout to vote or not
Case study for civic duty
Bonnd et al. 2012
Found the Faccebook sticker had a small affect but when you know your social network is also turning out to vote you find a larger effect on turning out to vote. Not huge numbers though
Close friend that turned out to vote vs distant counsin. The closer the social
network it has a much larger affect (about 1%) on you going to vote. Distant
cousin has no affect.
Does policy infleunce whether we turn out to vote?
Question: Do voters respond to information about the level of corruption in gov.
Intervention: Sent 16,000 Ugandan citizens
information about corruption in their
local council. Test whether learning
that an incumbent is more corrupt than
expected or less corrupt than expected affects turnout.
Results- When we told Ugandans who
supported the challenger that
the incumbent councillor was more corrupt than they thought they were about
10pp more likely to vote- want to remove them
When we told Ugandans who
supported the challenger that
the incumbent councillor was less corrupt than they thought they were about 7pp less likely to vote.
However, nothing happened when we
told Ugandans who supported the incumbent that the incumbent was more/ less corrupt than they thought.
Why?
- Have made up their minds.
- Difficult to give new information about the
incumbent.
Compulsory voting laws
Usually a small fine if you don’t
but it does increase turnout. 7% increase in turnout in places with compulsory voting.
Impact- Compulsory laws makes participation more representative. But also decrease political knowledge!
As votes become more compulsory there are higher levels of turnout as penalties increase. Political knowledge decreases as vote become more compulsory. Should worry about quality of the electorate as we increase turnout. Income poor individuals vote in the compuslory which has a large
affect. Good or bad thing? People are less partisan voting and less efficacious turning out to vote
Does the introduction of compulsory
voting increase support for left-wing
policies?
Bechtel et al. (2016)
Method- A “natural experiment”: the introduction of compulsory voting in the Canton of Vaud in 1925, and its effect on support for left-wing policy positions in
referendums before and after 1925, in
Vaud and other Cantons (Only compulsory in the one Canton of Vaud. The other Cantons weren’t)
Results- Increase in support for left-wing referendums. Increase in turnout when compulsory. Left policies in the compulsory group there is a shift in supporting left policies.
In the short-term we may decrease political knowledge but having positive implications in terms of represenation. Policies are following the new electorate- substantial policy shift
Turnout in Elections André Blais
(READING)
Turnout Patterns- Turnout has generally declined from nearly 80% in the 1970/80s to just over 70% in the early 2000s, with a notable drop starting in the 1990s.
Factors Influencing Turnout- Higher turnout is seen in economically advanced societies. Compulsory voting increases turnout by 10-15 points. PR systems generally have higher turnout, but this is not consistent globally. Election salience and the ease of voting (e.g., postal/ weekends) impact turnout.
Party system- More parties can decrease turnout due to increased information costs & the complexity of coalition govs. However, close electoral contests tend to increase turnout slightly.
Recent Decline- linked to generational replacement, with younger cohorts being less likely to vote. Lowering the voting age & the decreasing decisiveness of elections due to fractionalized party systems are also factors. The decline in group mobilization, such as union and labor party influence, contributes to lower turnout.
Individual-Level Factors- Age & education are the most significant predictors of voting behavior, with older and better-educated individuals more likely to vote.
Social pressure and voting pressure
Alan S. Gerber, Donald P. Green, Christopher W. Larimer
2008
(READING)
- Found that turnout for the 2006 Michigan primary’s was influenced by …
Civic Duty – marginally
Social pressure – dramatically
more specifically voter turnout had increased dramatically when their family knew they voted, and voter turnout had increased even more when neighbours where aware if they had voted or not
