POL107 final exam Flashcards
what are the three types of questions?
descriptive, analytical, normative
descriptive question:
what happened?
analytical question:
why did it happen?
normative question:
is it good or bad? who benefits? what should we do to get a more just and safe society? (examples)
independent vs dependent example
independent: variable that changes (ie, amount of water a plant receives)
dependent: variable affected by the change (height of plant)
things are more likely to go wrong when: (James C. Scott)
- state has administrative capacity to make society ‘legible’
- authoritative government
- weak civil society
- high modernist ideology
define high modernism:
- a desire to re-engineer nature and society
- disregard for history/past events
- over confidence in the power of modernity + science
- the belief that one can ‘do better’ than its predecessors
the swiss cheese model:
a metaphor used for the idea that large failures often begin with smaller, unobserved failures. the model itself consists of multiple slices of swiss cheese, showing how more layers of cheese means less chances of a hole being able to find a way through.
levels of analysis:
micro, mezzo, macro
example of levels of analysis:
individual, state, system
a crisis is defined through three criteria:
- threat (must be large)
- surprise (sudden)
- time constraints (very little time to act)
a three-criteria crisis was an idea by:
Harmon
the three models of decision making are:
rational, bureaucratic, and organizational.
the three models of decision making were invented by:
Alison
define rational model of decision making:
a model that works by picking the option that provides the most for the lowest cost. the decision must be made by a singular, unitary actor.
an example for the rational model is:
the cuban missile crisis.
define the bureaucratic model of decision making:
decisions are made by bureaucrats, who represent their respective bureaucracies. the state is a collection of bureaucracies vying for power. the idea that ‘you sit where you stand’.
the outcome after using the bureaucratic model of decision making reflects:
the balance of power in the decision-making group.
example of bureaucratic model:
general Curtis Lamay
define the organizational model of decision making:
decisions are made + carried out by organizations, which operate differently than individuals. organizations are not fully rational and rely on a preset menu of processes known as SOP’s.
define SOP and path dependency.
standard operating procedures may make organizations ‘sticky’, and are a major component of path dependency.
an example of SOP’s and path dependency:
the bombing of Nagasaki.
define garbage can model of decision making:
matching a problem with a random or most fitting SOP.
define march of folly:
a policy that is obviously failing but isn’t stopped or changed.
three criteria for marches of folly:
- the chosen policy is counter-productive and is understood as such during the time.
- alternate policies are available
- decision is made by a group and over one political lifetime.
define wooden-headedness:
assessing a situation in terms of preconceived, fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs.
define Cassandra:
an archetype of people who tried to halt / warn against disasters
the domino theory states that:
the idea that political events in one country will cause similar events in neighboring countries.
define prospect theory:
we feel the pain of losses more acutely than we enjoy the pleasure of gains.
how does prospect theory translate into action?
people are often more risk-adverse in the domains of gains and more risk acceptant in the domain of losses.
define groupthink:
a deviation from rationality in which the group picks the option that maximizes consensus instead of the best option.
two parts of the fundamental attribution error:
dispositional attribution: behaviour caused by the actor’s character.
situational attribution: behaviour caused by the situation in which the actor operates.
basis of the fundamental attribution error:
we tend to rely too much on dispositional attribution. friend and undesired behaviour: situational attribution. enemy with undesired behaviour: dispositional attribution. in this way it becomes clear how our biases cause us to misread the situation.
define deviation spiral:
in which unthinkable things/risks become acceptable and may lead to failure; normalization of deviance through small shifts.
define operational drift:
the slow uncoupling of practice from written procedure. example: when a student remembers 80% of what their teacher taught them, who remembered 80% of what THEIR teacher told them.
define high modernism.
- a desire to engineer both nature and society
- rejection + disregard for historical / social context
- over-confidence in the power of modernity + society
define entitlement:
a collection of alternative bundles of goods + services that each individual can access (could be money but could also be healthcare, education, etc)
five roads to disaster:
- outcome is unpredictable
- outcome is predictable but unavoidable (natural disaster)
- outcome is predictable + avoidable but mistakes were made
- outcome is predictable + avoidable but tolerated as a means for securing another goal
- outcome is predictable and avoidable but desirable
what is the banality of evil:
the idea that evil deeds are committed by ordinary people without malice; banal.
define intersectionality
identities are multifaceted and intersect
2 models of regulation:
the fire alarm model and police patrol
define fire alarm model:
waiting for someone to sound the alarm so regulators can be sent out
define police patrol model of regulation:
proactively going out to check if regulations are being followed
the boiling frog syndrome represents:
incremental change + the failure to react in time
who made the tragedy of the commons?
garret hardin
define tragedy of the commons:
situations in which overuse a public resource and deplete it
two types of public good:
non-excludability: once provided, it becomes impossible to stop anyone from using (roads)
non-rivalry: someone benefitting from the good doesn’t reduce the amount for others (TV)
define freerider:
individuals have an incentive to use good without contributing toward cost
define externality:
a positive or negative side effect of an action that is experienced by a third party that is not directly related to the action (second hand smoke)
two strategies of prisoner’s dilemma:
cooperate and defect.
what is the best strategy of the prisoner’s dilemma?
defecting, always.
describe the preparedness paradox:
if preparation is done for a disaster and it is adverted, it’s asked why so many resources were spent on preventing it since nothing happened.
define Goldilocks policy:
part of the preparedness paradox, where one must not prepare too much or too little (just the right amount)
define predictable surprise:
an unforseen event that should’ve been prepared for.
define black swan:
an unknown unknown. an unpredictable event that couldn’t have been prepared for.
define moral hazard:
the idea that people are more likely to take risky decisions when protected from the consequences.
what is the J curve?
a chart that shows how one operates in a period of losses before they operate in a period of gains.
define deterrence:
preventing an adversary’s actions through the threat of painful retaliation.
conventional vs nuclear deterrence:
conventional uses conventional weapons while nuclear uses nuclear weapons.
direct vs extended deterrence:
direct: a country defending itself
extending/indirect: a country defending another
counter force vs counter value
counter force: striking the weapons of the enemy
counter value: striking things of value to the enemy (economic centers, capitals, major cities, etc)
first and second strike are:
counter force and value. counter force is often first and counter value is usually second.
define MAD:
mutually assured destruction; both sides have second-strike abilities.
three components of the nuclear triad:
- siloes/buildings on land that house nuclear weapons
- planes that fly 24/7 carrying nuclear bombs
- submarines carrying nukes as well
define the butterfly effect:
a change in one location/dimension can result in a much larger change in another
fox vs hedgehog:
foxes know a little about a lot, whereas hedgehogs know a lot about a little.
does a fox or hedgehog estimate probability better?
fox.
explain the dunning kruger effect.
those with the least expertise are among the most confident, and have the same confidence as experts. those in the middle, who are neither completely uninformed or experts, tend to be the most insecure.
