Participation And Voter Behaviour Flashcards
What is the sociological model?
Long term factor of groups having similar issues and ideas on problems
Rational choice model?
Particular issues and candidates have a strong influence on voter behaviour in short term patterns
Eg each election cycle change
What is an argument for socialisation?
Increasing and high levels of partisanship
American identity aligns with parties
Consistently identifying with a party since the 50s.
; 42% in 2014 identified as independent
How many voters in the US usually identify as strongly independent?
10%
How extensive was party alignment during the 2012 election?
92% of democrats voted Obama
93% of republicans voted Romney
How did the New Deal change partisan alignment?
Large numbers of urban workers joined democrats due to economic assistance
Led to vast majority of country voting democrat until 1944
Why did party alignment change during Truman’s reign?
Civil rights movement led to southern democrats leaving to form the Dixiecrats
What was the realignment which was brought on in the 70s?
Rise of social issues: abortion, civil rights
Rise of interventionist economics: Medicaid and welfare
What were Reagans policies like?
Fiscal conservative
States rights
Supported religion in school
Opposing abortion and affirmative action
What were party alignment trends established during the 80s?
White, richer, Protestant, elderly, high income vote republican
Minority, catholic/atheist, young, lower income vote democrat
What was the democratic share of Hispanic voters in 88, 96, and 2020?
69%, 72%, 65%
Who were the evangelicals who Reagan appealed to?
Moral Majority (1979)
Voted against issues such as gay rights and abortion
What is the % of each age group who regularly attend religious service?
36% of youth
51% of 65+
How do generations impact the youth vote?
Gen X grew up under Reagan and in 1992 47% voted republican
Millennials grew up under controversial Bush so vote democrat
How do women tend to vote on policy areas?
Fiscal interventionism
Social liberal
Less supportive of foreign military intervention
How does marriage impact voting?
Married are more likely to vote for republicans since they are more likely to be conservative, richer, and older
How many televised debates are used?
3 presidential, 1 vice presidential
How did televised debates become significant during the 1960 election?
Kennedy only had a 0.1% majority
65 million people watched the debates and they increased JFK popularity by 3%
How do televised debates increase scrutiny and reduce the security of the incumbent?
Reagan criticised Carter through wit
Directly asking the electorate questions about the last four years
How did televised debates allow independent candidate to gain popularity?
Perot went from 10% to 17% by the end of the debates
What limits the effectivity of campaigns?
Debates are held in October, with estimate at 4% undecided by this point
How many undecided voters were there in swing states in 2012?
900,000
How effective was the 1964 campaign ads?
Democrats make it seem as though Goldwater will lead the country to nuclear waste
Very effective
What was a feature of the 1988 ads?
Exploited racial tensions by showing a black criminal who attacked a white person
Raised controversial issue of the death penalty
What was a feature of the 1984 ads?
Showed Americans’ lives improving during Reagans re-election
“Prouder, stronger, better”
How many negative:positive ads were there in 2012?
132,000 positive, 882,000 negative
What is the October surprise?
A major issue in October which distracts from campaign and massively influences the incumbents’ success/failure?
What was the October surprise in 2012?
Hurricane sandy
What were the October surprises in 2020?
Trump exposed as having 1bn in debt and paying $750 in tax in 2016
Article regarding Hunter Bidens laptop
How important is the economy/
2012 60%
2020 79%
Consistently the most important issue
How did Obama win Ohio?
GM bailout helped local economy
131 offices with 32,000 volunteers
What is the trend in black voter turnout?
As low as 54% in 1996
Peaked at 67% in 2012
Fell to 59% in 2016
Examples of amendments enshrining electoral reform
15th - African American suffrage
19th - female suffrage
23rd - 3 electoral college votes to DC
26th - 18-20 year old suffrage
How has measuring turnout changed?
Analyse compared to elegible voters which excludes voting age people such as felons
What results to chronic low participation?
Divided government means voters don’t know who to blame for policy failure
FPTP system leads to low political efficacy
What shows lack of faith leads to falling participation?
7/10 top voting states were swing states
Which third party candidate managed to gain ?
Perot. Anomalously higher by around 8%
What is a reason content voters abstain?
Happathy. Can also be seen in Blair’s reign
How is voter registration a barrier to voting?
American voter registration is voluntary which means people don’t
UK has state initiated voter registration
Which states used registration increased voter discrimination?
Southern states making it difficult for black through literacy; grandfather clause
What was African American voter turnout during 1960 and 1970?
29% moved to 70% after the Voting Rights Act 1965
What was the National Registration Act 1993
Required states to allow registration through any public agency (could register at the welfare office)
States had to allow registration by mail
What was the help American vote act 2002?
Voters not on the register can cast provisional ballot if they believe they should be elegible
Allows people to vote by the deadline and officials can check eligibility after the vote has taken place
How many states allow same day registration?
12 including DC
Increased turnout by 12%
What was Shelby Count v Holder 2013?
Upheld voting rights act and let congress mandate states’ needing permission for electoral reform
but ruled that the law was out of date and made it unconstitutional
What were the effects of the ruling in Shelby Count v Holder 2013?
Texas and Mississippi introduce voter ID requirements
Which turnouts have increased most?
Africans and Asians; white only slightly
Example of demographic change leading to changing electoral expectation?
Hispanics will become the majority in Texas within the decade
Battleground Texas seeks to register Hispanics by the democrats
