Part 3 - part 2 Flashcards
With BP, White Test and Arch-LM, if we reject the null what do we conclude?
hetereoskedasticity
ARCH-LM assumption, problem and solution
▶ Assumption: residuals are linearly independent.
▶ Problem: If violated, standard errors are off.
▶ Solution: Robust standard errors such as Newey-West/White
Conditions which Must be Fulfilled for DW(type of autocorrelation test) to be a Valid Test (2)
Conditions which Must be Fulfilled for DW to be a Valid Test
1. Constant term in regression
- No lags of dependent variable to assess the independence of residuals
Breusch-Godfrey Test, rejection implies …
rejection implies presence of
autocorrelation.
(E(ϵ) ̸= 0 problem, what is solution
Include intercept
Heteroskedasticity - what is solution
Robust Standard Errors
Residual is correlated - what is solution
Robust Standard Errors / Model Dynamics
Var. not exogenous - what is solution
Instrumental Variables
- Resid is not normal - what is solution
Deal with outliers
Chow Test Formula
test statistic =
RSS − (RSS1 + RSS2) /
RSS1 + RSS2
×
T − 2k
k
Chow test needs enough data to do the regression in both
sub-samples. What is the alternative (2)
the predictive failure test.
▶ Estimate the regression over a “long” sub-period (i.e. most of
the data) and then we predict values for the other period and
compare the two.
Forward predictive failure test
Forward predictive failure tests, last few observations used for
forecast testing
Backward predictive failure test
▶ Backward predictive failure tests, “back-cast” the first few
observations
If Chow test null is rejected conclude that …
parameters are not stable