Brainscape's Knowledge GenomeTM

Browse over 1 million classes created by top students, professors, publishers, and experts.


See full index

OPS LEC > OPS MODULE 4 > Flashcards

OPS MODULE 4 Flashcards

1
Q

A statement about the future value of interest

A

Forecast

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

T or F: Forecasts are not important to making informed decisions

A

False (important)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

T or F: We make forecasts about such things as weather, demand, and resource availability

A

True

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

What are the two important aspects of forecasts?

A
  1. Expected Level of Demand
  2. Accuracy
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

The level of demand may be a function of structural variation such as trend or seasonal variation

A

Expected Level of Demand

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

It is related to the potential size of forecast error

A

Accuracy

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

What are the two uses of forecast?

A
  1. Plan the system
  2. Plan the use of system
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

It involved long-range plans related to:
- Types of products and services to offer
- Facility and equipment levels
- Facility location

A

Plan the system

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

T or F: Forecasts are perfect

A

False (not perfect because random variation is always present, there will always be some residual error, even if all other factors have been accounted for.)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

It generally involves short and medium-ranged plans related to:
- Inventory management
- Workforce levels
- Purchasing
- Production
- Budgeting
- Scheduling

A

Plan the use of system

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

T or F: Forecasts for groups of items are not accurate compared those for individual items

A

False (are more accurate)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

T or F: Forecast accuracy increases as the forecasting horizon increases

A

False (Forecast accuracy decreases ; inversely proportional relationship sila)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

T or F: Techniques assume some underlying causal system that
existed in the present will persist into the future

A

False (existed in the past)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

What are the elements of a good forecast?

A

TARMISC
-Timely
-Accurate
-Reliable
-expressed in Meaningful units
-In writing or report
-Simple to understand and use
-Cost-effective

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

What are the steps in forecasting process?

A

DEOSMM
1. Determine the purpose of the forecast
2. Establish a time horizon
3. Obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data
4. Select a forecasting technique
5. Make the forecast
6. Monitor the forecast errors

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

T or F: It is important to provide an indication of the extent to which the forecast might deviate from the value of the variable that actually occurs

A

True

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

T or F: Allowances should not be made for forecast errors

A

False (should be made)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
17
Q

T or F: Forecast errors should be monitored

A

True

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
18
Q

What is the formula for error?

A

Error= Actual - Forecast

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
19
Q

In forecast accuracy and control, corrective action may be necessary if ___________.

A

If error fall beyond acceptable bounds

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
20
Q

In forecast accuracy metrics, ____________ weights all errors evenly

A

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
21
Q

In forecast accuracy metrics, ____________ weights errors according to their squares values

A

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
22
Q

In forecast accuracy metrics, ____________ weights errors according to relative error

A

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
23
Q

What are the two forecasting approaches?

A

Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
24
Q

T or F: Quantitative techniques permit the inclusion of soft information such as:
- Human factors
- Personal opinions
- Hunches

A

False (Qualitative)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
25
Q

T or F: Soft information such as human factors, opinions, hunches, are easy, or possible, to quantify

A

False (difficult, or impossible)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
26
Q

__________ forecasting approach rely on hard data

A

Quantitative

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
27
Q

T or F: Quantitative techniques involves either the projection of present data or the development of associative methods that attempt to use causal variables to make a forecast.

A

False (historical data not present data)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
28
Q

_____________ forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executives, and experts.

A

Qualitative

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
29
Q

Qualitative forecasts includes the subjective inputs like:

A

ESCO
- Executive pinions
- Sales force opinions
- Consumer surveys
- Other approaches

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
30
Q

A small group of upper-level managers may meet and collectively develop a
forecast

A

Executive Opinons

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
31
Q

Members of the sales or customer service staff can be good sources of
information due to their direct contact with customers and may be aware of
plans customers may be considering for the future

A

Sales force opinions

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
32
Q

Since consumers ultimately determine demand, it makes sense to solicit input from them. It typically represent a sample of consumer opinions

A

Consumer surveys

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
33
Q

Managers may solicit opinions from other managers or staff people or outside experts to help with developing a forecast.

A

Other approaches

34
Q

_________ method is an iterative process intended to achieve a consensus

A

Delphi

35
Q

_______ forecasts that project patterns identifies in recent time-series observations

A

Time-series

36
Q

It is a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular time intervals

A

Time-series

37
Q

T or F: Assume that future values of the time-series cannot be estimated from past values of time-series

A

False (can be estimated)

38
Q

What are the time-series behaviors?

A

TSCIR
- Trend
- Seasonality
- Irregular variations
- Random variations

39
Q

It is a long-term upward or downward movement in data
- Population shifts
- Changing income

A

Trend

40
Q

______ is a short-term, fairly regular variations related to the calendar or time of day

-Restaurants, service call centers, and theaters all experience ______ demand.

A

Seasonality ; Seasonal

41
Q

T or F: Seasonality is a long-term, fairly regular variations related to the calendar of time of day

A

False (short-term not long-term)

42
Q

_____ is a wavelike variations lasting more than one year

  • These are often related to a variety of economic, political, or even agricultural conditions
A

Cycle

43
Q

_________ is due to unusual circumstances that do not reflect typical behavior

  • Labor strike
  • Weather event
A

Irregular variation

44
Q

__________ is a residual variation that remains after all other behaviors have been accounted for

A

Random variation

45
Q

________ uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis for a forecast

A

Naïve forecast

46
Q

_________ can be used with:

-Stable time series
-Seasonal variations
-Trend

A

Naïve forecast

47
Q

What the techniques that work best when a series tends to vary about an average?

A

MWE

  1. Moving average
  2. Weighted moving average
  3. Exponential smoothing
48
Q

T or F: Averaging techniques smooth variations in the data

A

True

49
Q

T or F: Averaging techniques can handle step changes or drastic changes in the level of a series

A

False (gradual changes not drastic)

50
Q

________ technique that averages a number of the most recent actual values in generating a forecast

A

Moving average

51
Q

T or F: In moving average, as ______ become available, the forecast is updated by adding the _______ and dropping the _______ and then re-computing the average

A

New data; newest value ; oldest

51
Q

T or F: Moving average technique averages a number of the past actual values in generating a forecast

A

False (most recent actual values not past actual values

52
Q

In moving average, the number of data points included in the average determines the model’s sensitivity

___________ ; more responsive
___________ ; less responsive

A

Fewer data points used; more responsive

More data points used ; less responsive

53
Q

In __________, the most recent values in a time series are given more weight in computing a forecast

A

Weighted moving average

54
Q

T or F: In weighted moving average, the choice of weights, w, is somewhat arbitrary and involves some trial and error

A

True

55
Q

It is a weighted averaging method that is based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error

A

Exponential Smoothing

56
Q

___________ is a simple data plot that can reveal the existence and nature of a trend

A

Linear Trend

57
Q

What is the linear trend equation?

A

Ft = a + bt

58
Q

______ and _______ can be estimated from historical data

A

Slope and intercept

59
Q

____________ consists of two components:

  • Smoothed error
  • Trend factor
A

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing

59
Q

What are the two components that the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing consists?

A

-Smoothed error
-Trend factor

60
Q

T or F: In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, alpha and beta are smoothing constants

A

True

61
Q

T or F: Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing has the ability to respond to changes in trend

A

True

62
Q

________ is a regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events

A

Seasonality

63
Q

T or F: Seasonality is a regularly repeating movements in series values that can be ties to occurring events

A

False (recurring not occurring)

64
Q

T or F: Seasonality is expressed in terms of the amount that actual values do not deviate from the average values of a series

A

False (deviate instead of do not deviate)

65
Q

What are the two models of seasonality?

A

-Additive
-Multiplicative

66
Q

Additive seasonality is expressed as a quantity that gets _______ to or _______ from the time-series average in order to incorporate seasonality.

A

added ; subtracted

67
Q

Multiplicative seasonality is expressed as a __________ of the average (or trend) amount which is then used to multiply the value of a series in order to incorporate seasonality

A

percentage

68
Q

___________ is the seasonal percentage used in the multiplicative seasonally adjusted forecasting model

A

Seasonal relatives

69
Q

Using seasonal relatives:
To __________ data

-Done in order to get a clearer picture of the nonseasonal (e.g.,
trend) components of the data series
-Divide each data point by its seasonal relative

A

deseasonalize data

70
Q

Using seasonal relatives:
To __________ in a forecast

-Obtain trend estimates for desired periods using a trend
equation
-Add seasonality by multiplying these trend estimates by the
corresponding seasonal relative

A

incorporate seasonality

71
Q

T or F: Tracking forecast errors and analyzing them can provide useful insight into whether forecasts are performing unsatisfactorily

A

False (satisfactorily not unsatisfactorily)

72
Q

___________ are useful for identifying the presence of non-random error in the forecasts

A

Control Charts

73
Q

Tracking signals can be used to detect ___________

A

forecast bias

74
Q

All are sources of forecasts errors except:

A. Model may be inadequate
C. Irregular variations may have occurred
D. Random variation
E. None of the above

A

E. None of the above

75
Q

The model may be inadequate due to:
- ________ of an important variable
- a ________ or ______ in the variable the model cannot handle
- the _______ of a new variable

A

omission ; change or shift ; appearance

76
Q

What are the factors to consider when choosing a forecasting technique?

A

CAAATF

  • Cost
  • Accuracy
  • Availability of historical data
  • Availability of forecasting software
  • Time needed to gather and analyze data and prepare a forecast
  • Forecast horizon
77
Q

T or F: The better forecasts are, the more organizations will
be able to take advantage of future opportunities and reduce
potential risks

A

True

78
Q

T or F: In operations strategy, we should increase the time horizon forecasts have to cover

A

False (reduce not increase)

79
Q

T or F: Sharing forecasts or demand data through the supply chain can
improve forecast quality

A

True

80
Q

T or F: A worthwhile strategy is to work to improve long-term forecasts

A

False (short-term instead of long-term)

81
Q

T or F: Accurate up-to-date information can have a significant effect on forecast accuracy:
- Prices
- Demand
- Other important variables

A

True

OPS LEC (4 decks)

Brainscape helps you reach your goals faster, through stronger study habits.
© 2024 Bold Learning Solutions. Terms and Conditions