Opinion polls Flashcards
1992 election opinion polls
Tory won by 7.5%.
Election was on April 8th 1992 - between March 1st and April 7th there were 58 different opinion polls taken. Labour won 44, Tory won 12, ties in 2.
Highest Tory lead was 5% on March 23rd.
3 polls on April 7th: 3% lead for Lab, 1% lead for Lab, 0.5% lead for Tory.
1997 election opinion polls
Polls were accurate.
Lab had 12.5% lead on May 1st election.
April 30th polls showed 18% lead, 10% lead, 13% lead.
Last Tory lead was January 1993.
2010 election opinion polls
Accurate in Tory being biggest party.
Overestimated Lib Dem support.
Lib Dem got 23.6%. Last 3 OPs had LD on 27%, 27% and 28%.
2 polls in April had LD receiving largest share of vote (3% and 1% leads). CLEGGMANIA.
2014 Indy Ref opinion polls
No won by 10.6%.
Last 4 polls had No winning by 5%, 5%, 5%, 4%.
Yes had 2 leads, 7% on September 11th and 2% on 5th September.
THE VOW - 16th September.
EU Ref opinion polls
Leave won by 3.8%.
Poll on 22nd June had Remain win by 10%.
Leave was winning until assassination of Jo Cox on 16th June. In 13 following polls they won 3, in 13 before they won 10.
2017 election opinion polls
Tory win by 2.5%.
9 polls on June 7th had Lab win 1, Tory win others.
One poll had Tory with 13%, larger than 1997 Blair which was largest majority ever.
In reality, confidence and supply deal.
2019 election opinion polls
Election on Dec 12th.
Tory win by 11.5%.
Polls on Dec 11th accurate. Had Tory winning by 9-12%.
