objectif Flashcards
a) objectifs
Mrs May has made clear that her priorities are to take back control of migration, breaching the EU’s principle of free movement of people, and to escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). This means, as she accepts, that Britain must leave the EU’s single market and customs union. She rejects off-the-shelf models for a new trade relationship. Instead, she wants a bespoke free-trade deal that gives, to the maximum extent possible, barrier-free access to each other’s market.
difficulté 1
This will be tricky to agree on, and even harder to ratify. In many countries the opponents of free trade will stand in the way. Negotiations take years: they started between Canada and the EU in 2007 and the resultant CETA deal is still not fully in force. The rules for approving a Britain-EU free-trade deal will be a problem, for as a “mixed” agreement it must be ratified by all national parliaments in the EU as well as some regional ones (including Wallonia’s, which almost kiboshed CETA).
difficulté 2
The departure of such a big net contributor will cause pain, one reason why the commission has talked up the size of the exit bill. There is a serious risk that the budget row will blow up the talks before they start. .The commission claims that past commitments plus future obligations mean that Britain owes the EU as much as €60bn ($65bn). It believes this debt could be enforced at the International Court of Justice. Mrs May’s letter refers to the matter only obliquely. David Davis, her Brexit secretary, likes to quote a report from the House of Lords citing legal advice that, after Brexit, Britain will owe the EU nothing. More fanciful Brexiteers even claim that the EU owes Britain money for its share in the capital of the European Investment Bank
difficulté post négociation
an idea of the vast spread of policies that must be changed post-Brexit. Besides the economic and legal impacts, it includes chapters on a new migration regime, financial-services regulation, competition policy, regional aid, state aid, industrial policy, transport, agricultural support and higher education.
Against a tight deadline, the complexity of these issues will be a huge challenge
si échec des négociations
there is little to fear if there is no deal at all. Mrs May herself has insisted that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain”.
No deal means reverting to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. As Open Britain, another think-tank, notes, this implies not just all of the EU’s non-tariff barriers, but tariffs of 10% on cars, 15% on food and 36% on dairy products. It would end Britain’s access to the EU’s trade deals with 53 other countries. Last year the Treasury said this option would reduce GDP by 7.5% after 15 years. The House of Commons Foreign Affairs committee recently warned against the no-deal option.
