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Climate Change > Natural Variability > Flashcards

Natural Variability Flashcards

1
Q

What kind of system is climate?

A

Complex coupled system (ocean and atmosphere)

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2
Q

How is a double pendulum a good example for our climate?

A

Climate can be predicted but weather is chaotic

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3
Q

What is weather noise?

A

Entirely random differences in average weather (no pattern)

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4
Q

What is internal climate variability?

A

Long-term atmospheric dynamical variations (often repetitive)

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5
Q

What causes variability?

A

Complex coupled system, weather noise, internal climate variability and ocean-atmosphere interactions

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6
Q

What is a natural mode of variability?

A

Internal climate variability that follows persistent patterns that repeat. It is characterized by teleconnections e.g ENSO and NAO

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7
Q

On what period do natural modes occur?

A

Years to decades

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8
Q

Why are natural modes important?

A
  • Control regional weather variability
  • Impact of agriculture, water resources, fishing
  • Affected by climate change?
  • Long term changes to modes could amplify climate change /be mistaken for climate change
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9
Q

Where do we measure the NAO from?

A

The Azores and Iceland

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10
Q

What are conditions like during a positive NAO phase?

A
  • drier over Europe

- wet conditions moved northward

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11
Q

Case study of the strong NAO winter- when was it? what was it called?

A

The Big Freeze of 2009-2010 in the UK

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12
Q

The NAO of 2009 caused the coldest temperatures since …

A

1978/79

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13
Q

The NAO of 2009: how low did temperatures reach?

A

-22.3ºC

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14
Q

The NAO of 2009: What were some of the impacts?

A
  • roads closed
  • trains halted
  • flights disrupted
  • water pipes froze and burst
  • 1/3 more gas used
  • 25 direct deaths
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15
Q

Why is it important to predict the NAO for the UK?

A

So we can plan accordingly … e.g. grit roads

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16
Q

What are the changes in climate associated with NAO variations?

A

-strengthened westerlies
-milder European winters
-sever winters in Canada and NW Atlantic
-regional precipitation changes
-

17
Q

How do we westerlies change during a positive NAO?

A

Strengthened westerlies from surface to the lower stratoshpere

18
Q

How do winters change during positive NAO?

A

Milder winters in Europe and more severe winters in Canada and NW Atlantic

19
Q

How does precipitation change during a positive NAO?

A

Pronounced regional changes … glacier advance in Northern Europe and retreat of Alpine glaciers

20
Q

Where does sea ice cover change during a positive NAO?

A

Over the Labrador and Greenland seas

21
Q

Where does the Met Office no longer publish their NAO forecast?

A

Loss of public trust … however the overall prediction is good but some years it is off significantly

22
Q

When does the Met Office publish their results?

A

If they are very confident in their prediction

23
Q

What % of inter annual temperature variation anomalies in the N hem over the last 60 years are due to NAO variations?

A

31%

24
Q

What is NAO likely driven by?

A

Decadal variations in Atlantic Ocean temperature which may change in a future climate

25
Q

What is MEI?

A

Multivariate ENSO index

26
Q

What observations is MEI based off?

A

6 observations over the tropical Pacific …

  • Sea level pressure
  • zonal and meridional components of surface wind
  • sea surface temperature
  • surface air temperature
  • total cloudiness fraction of the sky
27
Q

What is ENSO an example of?

A
  • Natural variability

- A coupled system (ocean and atmosphere)

28
Q

What is a distinct feature of coupled non-linear systems?

A

Chaos

29
Q

Is the climate chaotic?

A

Climate change is not chaotic BUT aspects of the system is … weather and internal climate variability

30
Q

What are pressure differences like during a positive NAO phase?

A

Pressure difference between The Azores and Iceland is greater than normal

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