Module 5.1 Flashcards
need to be able to appreciate the risks in buying and selling securities to understand their own or their respective clients’ risk profile.
Brokers/ dealers
in their exercise of their supervisory authority over brokers/ dealers, need to understand risks to get a big picture overview and perspective of the risk implications of business decisions taken.
associated persons
in their duty of providing independent oversight and check over the business activities of brokers/ dealers, should be familiar with the risk consequences of their respective business activities.
Compliance
in the course of the performance of their duty to buy and sell securities need to understand the risk of the securities they are selling and the suitability and appropriateness of these securities to be sold to their respective clients especially in their performance of the level of care they are expected to exercise for their clients.
salesman
simple working definition of risk provided by ISO 31000
Effect of uncertainty on objectives
the distance away from the predictable value or expected value.
risk
most popular measures of risk
standard deviation or volatility
statistical measure that measures the spread or deviation away from the average.
Standard deviation
The farther you are from the predictable variable (expected value or average), the higher the standard deviation or risk
T or F. Risk is associated with certainty
F. Risk is uncertainty
as the “state, even partial, of deficiency information related to, understanding or knowledge of an event, its consequence or likelihood”.
Uncertainty
This uncertainty exists in two dimensions:
- Likelihood that the adverse event will happen
- Consequence or impact of the adverse event
refers to the “chance of something happening”.
Likelihood
The higher the likelihood that the adverse event will happen, the higher the level of risk is
Likelihood:
- Quality:
- Quantity:
- Quality: not possible to certainty
- Quantity: probability
refers to the “outcome of a risk event”
Consequence
Consequence:
- Quali:
- Quanti:
- Quali: minor to extreme
- Quanti: losses
Risk = Consequence x Likelihood
Results framework
see page 9 module
compensation for the time value of money and for credit risk the investor is taking on the borrower or issuer of the fixed income security.
Interest
T or F. Investing in a short-term fixed income security is always riskier than investing in a long-term fixed income security.
F. not all the time. General rule is still the longer the tenor, the higher the risk
three levels of risk that organizations face
Level 1: Known Risk
Level 2: Developing Risk
Level 3: Black Swan Risk
are risks that an organization are aware of and can identify and plan for
Known risks
are risks that an organization are aware of but the full extent and implications are not completely clear.
Developing risks
are risks that are unforeseen and hard to predict or avoid. It is an popular term in risk management to describe low probability but significantly high impact risk events that could threaten the ability of the organization to continue or operate as a going concern.
Black swan risks
T or F. black swans are high-impact, hard to predict but rare events; difficult to quantify probability and psychological biases of people as the role of uncertainty
T
Black swan risks are risks that are:
A. High probability, low impact
B. Low probability, low impact
C. High probability, high impact
D. Low probability, high impact
D. Low probability, high impact
Risk can be broadly categorized into two different types:
- financial risk
- non-financial risk.
are risks that are associated with financing and investments. These risks are associated with transactions that have a direct financial impact.
Financial risks
Financial Risks
- Market risk
- Credit risk
- Liquidity risk
- Refinancing risk
To understand the nature and sources of financial risks, it will be helpful to look at the ___________ of a typical company.
balance sheet
Funds that come from sources with contractual obligations to repay
Liabilities
Funds that come from owners or sources with discretionary payments
Equity
is the risk that the investment will not be as profitable as the investor expected because of fluctuations in the market. It involves the risk that prices or rates will significantly change due to economic forces
Market risk
Market risk can be categorized into:
interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk, equity price risk and commodity price risk.
JG Summit, the investment holding firm of the family of tycoon John Gokongwei, incurred a net loss of PHP 694 million last year, a reversal of the PHP 8.61 billion net profit reported in 2007. The mark-to-market losses were brought about by the combined effects of the following factors: lower market value of its financial assets and fuel hedges volatility of global financial and commodity markets, and the lower value of the peso.
a. Market risk
b. Credit risk
c. Liquidity risk
d. Refinancing risk
a. Market risk
is the exposure of a company’s earnings and financial condition to fluctuation or adverse movements in interest rates.
Interest rate risk
As interest rates increase, their respective cost of borrowing also increases. This is also known as ______________.
cash flow interest rate risk
if bonds are purchased and market interest rates subsequently rise, the price of bonds that carry fixed interest rate will decline to entice future buyers of the bond as the fixed interest carried by the bond is now lower compared to market interest rates. This is also known as _____________________.
fair value interest rate risk
is the exposure of a company’s earnings and financial condition to movements in exchange rate.
Foreign exchange risk
A company with ownership of overseas subsidiaries also faces _____________ from changes in the reported domestic accounting results of foreign operations due to changes in foreign exchange rates.
revaluation risk
The Philippine Peso is among Asia’s worst performers in 2018. San Miguel Corp, SM Investments Corp and Ayala Corp are some of the leading groups with dollar-denominated obligations who need to refinance or repay in the next five years. The most at risk from the peso slump are construction and transportation companies, whose revenues are in Peso but they make large investments in dollars.
a. interest rate risk
b. foreign exchange risk
c. equity price risk
d. commodity price risk.
b. foreign exchange risk
is the exposure of a company’s earnings and financial conditions to adverse movements in equity prices. It is the risk that arises from security price volatility.
Equity price risk
is the exposure of a company’s earnings and financial condition to fluctuations in commodity prices.
Commodity price risk
Commodity price risk exposure usually arises from _____________________ or __________________.
commodity price-linked revenues; commodity price-linked expenses
is the risk that the borrower will fail to meet its obligations as they come due. This is largely dependent on the ability and willingness of the borrower to pay their obligations as they come due.
Credit risk
Credit risk can be understood in two main dimensions:
a. Probability of default
b. Loss given default
likelihood that the borrower will not be able to repay their obligations as it comes due. It is dependent on the characteristics of the borrower or counterparty. The higher the probability of default,
the higher the credit risk of the borrower.
Probability of default.
the amount of loss that will be incurred if the borrower defaults. It can be measured as 100% minus the recovery rate, which is the amount that a creditor can claim from the borrower or counterparty in the event of default.
Loss given default.
Credit ratings of five Philippine banks are in danger after they were exposed to the biggest default in Philippine corporate history as it could mean higher credit costs and reduction in profit according to Moody’s.
a. interest rate risk
b. foreign exchange risk
c. credit risk
d. commodity price risk.
c. credit risk
is the risk arising from the inability of the company to pay its obligation as they come due. describes the ability of the company to convert its assets to cash to meet short-term obligations
Liquidity risk
Liquidity risk arises from two factors:
a. Inability to sell or liquidate assets to meet obligations
b. Inability to obtain adequate funding through new borrowings
is the inability of the company to replace existing funding to repay existing maturing obligations.
Refinancing risk
Hanjin Philippines - the biggest investor in the Subic Bay Freeport Zone filed for bankruptcy on 8 Jan 2019. The company has become financially distressed due to its heavy debt. With revenues falling behind, it cannot support its operations anymore under the burden of heavy debt.
a. interest rate risk
b. liquidity risk
c. credit risk
d. commodity price risk
b. liquidity risk
are risks that do not have a direct financial impact
Non-financial risks
Examples of non-financial risks are:
- Operational risk
- Legal and Compliance risk
- Strategic risk
- Reputational risk