MODULE 3 Strategies for Improving Population Health Flashcards
L1* Describe the place of individual health care in an overall framework of determinants and distribution of health of the population * Understand and apply guidelines/frameworks for assessing causation: Bradford Hill Criteria Rothman’s Causal Pies
Individual vs Population Health Care
Clinicians: individuals. treat disease to restore health. Reactive. Treating patients who are present
Population Health: health of groups of individuals, in the context of their environment. Proactive and comprehensive approach to clinical practice. Identifying and treating all appropriate patients in a population
The Public/Population Health Model
Provide maximum benefit for the largest number of people, at the same time reducing inequities in the distribution of health and wellbeing.
Epidemiology:
- Define the problem
(CSS)
- Identify the risk and protective factors
(Cohort S, Case-C S)
- Develop and test prevention strategies
(RCTs; Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies)
- Assure widespread adoption
- Monitor and evaluate
Role of Epidemiology
To seek the cause of dis-ease, so appropriate preventative measures can be introduced.
NOT determine the cause of a dis-ease in a given individual.
Determines the relationship/association between a given exposure and dis-ease populations
James Lind’s Experiment
RCT
Prevention of Scurvy before the cause was identified
Study Participants:
12 British Sailors with Scurvy
Learned that citrus helped with treating Scurvy
Bradford Hill Criteria (1965)
“Aids to thought”
(means that not all have to be present. Judgement necessary!)
- Temporality
- Strength of Association
- Consistency of association
- Biological Gradient (dose-response)
- Biological Plausibility of association
- Specificity of association
- Reversibility
Temporality
First the cause, then the dis-ease
essential to establish a causal relation
e.g. Smoking as a cause of lung cancer: British Doctors’ Study
Strength of Association
the stronger an association, the more likely to be causal in absence of known biases (selection, information, and confounding)
BDS: RR>10
Consistency of Association
Replication of the findings by different investigators, at different times, in different places, with different methods
e.g. Multiple studies have shown similar results
Biological Gradient (dose-response)
Incremental change in disease rates in conjunction with corresponding changes in exposure
Biological plausibility of association
does this association make sense biologically?
e.g. Carcinogens in tobacco
Specificity of association
A cause leads to a single effect
However, a single cause often leads to multiple effect
e.g. Smoking –> Multiple outcomes
Reversibility
The demonstration that under controlled conditions that changing the exposure causes a change in the outcome
e.g Reduced risk after quitting in BDS
Notes on Bradford Hill Criteria
USE YOUR JUDGEMENT
Causal phenomena are usually complex- and exposure -outcome relationships are not usually 1:1.
Causal Pies Framework:
JK Rothman
A cause of disease:
An event, condition, characteristic (or combination of these factors) which play an essential role in producing the disease.
Causal Pies
- sufficient cause
- component cause
- necessary cause
Sufficient cause
Factor/s that will inevitably produce the specific dis-ease
Component cause
Factor that contributes towards disease causation, but is not sufficient to cause disease on its own
Necessary Cause
Factor (or component cause) that must be present if a specific dis-ease is to occur
Difference between Sufficient and Component Cause
Component Causes are all the possible causes. Sufficient Causes are the causes that are enough to cause an event
A CAUSAL PIE FOR TB (example)
What are the Component Cause?
What is/are the Necessary Cause?
* We use the association and several other factors to infer causation and intervene to prevent disease
* we can intervene at any number of points in the pie
* knowledge of the complete pathway is not a pre-requisite for introducing preventive measures
Component Cause:
poverty
reduced immunity
poor sanitation
overcrowding
TB Bug
Necessary Cause:
TB Bug
Why do we need to prioritise in health?
- currently not enough money to fund all health problems
- new technologies being developed everyday, incr in medical cost
Where NZ’s health dollar goes (2008)
Total budget for 2013/2014
6% public health
4% administration
26% inpatient curative and rehab care
26% outpatient/home curative and rehab
20% long term nursing
12% medical goods
6% ancillary services
Estabilishing Public Health Priorities
Problem
Solution
Decision Criteria
The problem
who is affected?
how common is it?
size, groups, seriousness
(death rates: cancer (high priority area as first but may not be this list, depending on who you are/where you are looking at))
consider death rates in diff population groups
trends over time of major risk factors in NZ
how serious is it?
The problem–how serious is it?
- age at death and premature mortality (years of potential life lost to death (YLL))
- time lived with disability (disability adjusted life years (DALY))
- population attributable risk (PAR)
risk difference= attributable reisk (AR)
=
EGO-CGO
i.e.
The amount of “extra” disease attributable to a particular
risk factor in the
exposed group
~
incidence in exposed population (EGO)
Population Attributable Risk (PAR)
The amount of “extra” disease attributable to a
particular risk factor in a
particular population
•
If the association is causal
– this is the amount of
disease (theoretically) we could prevent if we removed
that particular risk factor from the
population
(WHOLE POPULATION, NOT JUST THE WHOLE GROUP)
Population Attributable
Risk (PAR)
=
Incidence in the total population –
Incidence in unexposed pop (CGO)
(PGO-CGO)
(total who got disease/total population - comparison group who got the disease/ comparison group total)