MODULE 2 Explore why disparities exist and why we reduce them Flashcards
What are the key drivers of Population change?
Fertility, mortality and migration
Age Specific Fertility Rate
Number of births to women in a 5-year age group/Number of females in a 5-year age group, per 1 000
Total fertility rate (TFR)
a population measure of family size
(measure of fertility)
Replacement level
(TFR)
TFR level required for the population to replace itself without migration
How is fertility measured?
through birth statistics
(Dept of Internal Affairs register; Information Directorate at the Ministry of Health maintains register and Statistics NZ generate the reports)
birth rates, age-specific fertility rates, total fertility rates
How is mortality measured?
Death statistics
(Department of Internal Affairs register; Health Information Directorate at the Ministry of Health maintain and report)
number of deaths, death rates, life expectancy
Death rates measured: Infant mortality rate, crude death rate, standardised death rate
How is migration measured?
origin and destination statistics
(visitor information sheets when we leave the country; statistics NZ maintain and report)
Key trends in Births since 1970s
Number of live births in 1971 and 2008 are similar (around 64 000) BUT fertility rate is NOT the same (because the denominator, total number of women/denominator has increased).
The crude birth rate has decreased from around 22 per 1 000 in 1971 to under 15/1000 in 2013.
Age-specific fertility rate trend:
1984: first IVF baby born
30-34 age group: massive increase in ASFR since (Also in 35-39)
Decrease in ASFR in 20-24; 25-29 (a little in 15-19)
Key trends in Deaths since 1970s
All deaths in NZ from 1971-2013: increasing trend from just above 24 000 to just over 30 000
Key Trends in Migration since the 1970s
No key trend in permanent and long-term migration patterns bet 1971 and 2013 (arrivals and departures)
Migration trends consist of in-migration AND out-migration.
Crude birth rate calculation
=live births/total population per 1 000
Age-specific fertility rate
The number of births to women in a 5-year age group/Number of females in a 5-year age group per 1 000
Study setting: NZ, 1973-2013
Eligible population and Participants: Females aged 15-44, living in NZ between 1971 and 2013 who gave birth to at least one child
(NB: assumes that ASFR remains constant throughout woman’s lifetime)
Life expectancy in NZ 1970-2013
Difference in LE between sexes decreased from 6.1-3.7 years.
Males: from under 70 to just under 80 yo
Females: from around 75 to around 83 yo
Infant mortality rate
number of deaths aged <1 yo / live births per 1 000.
decreasing trend from 16.0/ 1000 to just over 4.0/1000.
Around 1989, An intervention:
NZ Cot Death Study commenced: recommendations:
Baby sleeps in prone position; mum doesn’t smoke during pregnancy
Crude death rate and Standardised Death rate
Crude:number of deaths/total pop per 1 000
Standardised: total of (expected deaths/standard population) per 1 000
From 8/1000 to under 4/1000 (std) and just over 6/1000 (crude)
Demographic measures of migration
internal migration
external migration
net migration = arrivals - departures
net migration rate= (immigrants/emigrants)/total population per 1 000
Migration
Permanent or semi-permanent change of residence by an individual or group of people
Internal migration
impacts on REGIONAL population growth
External migration
impacts on NATIONAL population growth
PLT= permanent and/or long-term migrants
Recent migration trends
Jan 2014 net migration gain: 25 666
Net loss of 15 000 people to Australia in Feb 2014 was well down from the loss of 36 700 in Feb 2013.
Net gains of migrants from most other countries in Feb 2014 year:
China (6 100)
India (5 800)
UK (5 800)
Philippines (2 500)
Germany (2 300)
France (1 700)
Population Ageing
occurs when the median age of a country’s population increases due to improved life expectancy and/or declining birth rates
happening in most high-income countries now, or will be within 25-50 years.
Types of Ageing
Numerical and stuctural
Numerical Ageing
the absolute increase in the population that is elderly
- reflects previous demographic patterns
- improvements in life expectancy
Structural ageing
the increase in the **proportion **of the population that is elderly
- driven by decreases in fertility rates
- began occurring in the 1800s
New Zealand’s Population from 1971-2031
Year
1971
1991
2011
2031
Population (mil)
- 9
- 5
- 41
- 19
Median Age
26
31
37
40
Population impacts of ageing
Natural decline and absolute decline
Natural decline
occurs when there are more deaths than births in a population
- a combination of absolute and structural ageing
- more elderly = more deaths
Absolute decline
occurs when there is insufficient migration to replace the ‘lost’ births and increased deaths
- not expected to happen in NZ for 70+ years
- Happening in some European/Asian countries
Dependency ratios
measure the pressure on the (economically) productive population
Elderly: pop 65+ years/ 15-64 years x 100
Youth pop aged 0-14/ 15-64 years x 100
The dependents per 100 working age population value is increasing for the elderly over the years; For youth, fairly stable, very slightly decreasing.
Elderly: from 20-42 per 100 working age pop
Youth: 30 to under 30
2026 overlap at about 30
New Zealand’s population is ageing rapidly
- ethnic and regional variations
- dependency ratios cross in 2026
Ageing population will have significant impact on health
e.g. prevalence of hearing loss expected to double by 2015
Population change in NZ will impact on the health needs of many populations, especially the elderly.
Implications for workforce
- potentially similar to rural doctor problem?
- ethnic-specific needs
Interpreting the dependency ratios
In 2011: Every 100 people of working age are ‘supporting’ 50 dependents
in 2061: there will be 70 dependents per 100 working age people.
(supporting= paying taxes, buying goods/services)
Consequence of increasing dependency ratio:
as the number of dependents increases, the amount of money for the government to spend on other resources (health, education, roads) will decrease
(the govt would have to find other ways to obtain revenue)
Determinant of health (individuals)
any event, characteristic or other definable entity, that brings about change for better or worse in health
often not due to one factor or exposure
usually multi-factorial (multiple factors)
Examples of determinants
water, shelter, sanitation (VIP)
income, employment, education
housing and neighbourhoods
societal characteristics (e.g. racism, attitudes to alcohol or violence, value on children) - broader level
autonomy & empowerment- social cohesion (trust and reciprocity etc)- broader level
The determinants of health framework: rainbow model
Components:
Non-modifiable factor:
- age, sex & hereditary factors
Modifiable factors:
- personal behaviour
- family and community influences
- rural and urban living and working conditions
- national socioeconomic, cultural and environmental conditions (policies to regulate behaviours)
- global, financial and ecological conditions.
Determinants of health (populations)
concepts are similar as for individuals, but nature of determinants is often different.
(not just application of individual perspective to whole population, but including characteristics of the population itself)
- determinants of health in populations are also related to the context in which the population exists.
Structure and agency in Rainbow model
Agency= empowerment:
personal behaviour
family and community influences
Structure= social determinants:
family and community influences
rural and urban living and working conditions
national socioeconomic, cultural and environmental conditions
global, financial and ecological conditions.
Rainbow model framework properties
- helps identify risk factors and consider levels of intervention
- age, sex & hereditary factors (non-modifiable risk factors)
- dashed lines= premeability between factors (no arch operates in isolation from the others; events at one level may impact on factors at another (higher or lower) level
- recognises that determinants operate at different scales (micro (individual), meso (family, living, work), macro (national/global))
Example of Health Determinant Framework: Asthma
Age, Sex and Hereditary Factors:
Age < 10 years; Parents have asthma
Personal behaviour:
Being active (swimming, football) or not; using inhaler
Family and community influences:
parents etc smoke in the car/house
Rural and urban living and working conditions:
rural areas- ‘cleaner’ air; urban areas- pollution? opportunities for child to be active
**National socioeconomic, cultural and environmental **conditions:
socioeconomic conditions may dictate the area of residence quality of housing etc.
global financial and ecological conditions:
international trade agreements may impact on the cost of medications for asthma patients
Structure
social and physical environmental conditions/patterns (social determinants) that influence choices and opportunities available e.g. eating choices.
Agency
capacity of an individual to act independently and make free choices e.g. eating choices
Levels of action to improve population health
Downstream and upstream interventions
Downstream Interventions
operate at the micro (proximal) level, including treatement systems, and disease management
Upstream Interventions
operate at the macro (distal) level, such as government policies and international trade agreements
Identifying upstream determinants
- provides effective intervention points without victim blaming
- potentially more efficient economically and more successful than focusing on individuals
Indicators of Socio-economic position
- income
- education
- occupation
Measuring income in Surveys
- Personal income
- can be sensitive issue- reporting bias?
- absolute measures
- categorial measures
- household income
- useful indicator for women, who may not be the main income earner
- should be ‘equivalised’ for comparisons between populations (requires information on family size, dependents etc)
Socio-economic position
“The social and economic factors that influence what
positions individuals or groups hold within the structure
of a society”
Galobardes B et al. 2006 Indicators of socioeconomic position (part 1) JECH;60:7-12
Socio-economic determinants
These must be:
objective
measurable
meaningful
Socio-economic position
socio-economic status
social class
social stratification
socio-economic background (used at UoA)
Why measure SEP (Socio-economic position)?
- used to quantify the level of inequality within or between societies
- may highlight changes to population structures overtime, between Census periods or even between generations
- Needed to help understand relationship between health and other social variables (age, sex, ethnicity)
- have been associated with health and life chances for as long as social groups have existed.
Measures of income
- most directly measure the material resources aspect of SEP
- have a dose-response association with health (the more the better etc)
- have a cumulative effect over the life course
- have the greatest potential to change over a short duration
Measuring Education
- Attempts to measure knowledge-related assets of an individual
- can be measured as a continuous variable (years to complete educ; time in educ considered more impt than achievements)
- can be measured as a categorical variable (educational attainment/milestones; specific achievements are important in determining SEP)
Measures of Education
- capture transitions from parent’s SEP to personal SEP
- believed to be associated with our ability to respond to health promotion messages
- easy to obtain, often good response rate, relevant to all age groups
- Problems/complications: cohort effects, e.g. different standards of education in different countries
Measuring occupation
- jobs grouped by potential income or SEP
- can be measured as:
- occupation is transferable
- widely available
- difficult to include individuals not currently employed
- cohort effects: different meanings of different cohorts
- closely associated with income
- reflects social standing
- individuals experience occupational or ‘social’ mobility over the life-course
- occupation influences/impacts on:
Jobs grouped by potential income or SEP
- The NZ Socioeconomic Index of Occupational Status (NZSEI)
- Social class in the UK
Occupation can be measured as:
- current of longest held occupation
- parental occupation in studies of younger populations
Occupation is transferable
occupation of “Head of household” for spouse and dependents
Occupation statistics are widely available
- census data, vital events, surveys
- sources of bias (recall, numerator: denominator)
Occupation reflects social standing
possibly certain privileges resulting from SEP (lawyers, doctors etc)
Occupations impacts on:
- social networks
- work-related stress
- occupational exposure to environmental risks
Other measures of SEP in NZ
Housing
Culture
Population-based services and facilities
Social Capital
Other measures of SEP: Housing
- tenure- private or social rented? owner occupier? (problematic as many houses are now owned by family trusts)
- conditions- overcrowding, insulaiton, damp, mould etc.