Module 12 - Finance Theory Flashcards
Why is the level of dividend thought to be important
- regarded as communicating a message about management’s view of current and future profitability (signaling hypothesis)
- a dividend is cash in hand so is more certain
- investors place heavy emphasis on past dividend levels
dividend relevancy theories
choice of dividend policy affects the company’s share price
Walter’s model
- relevancy theory
- compares cost of capital and rate of return
- if rate of return > cost of capital then all profits should be retained and zero dividend paid
- if company generates a lower rate of return than cost of capital then 100% of profits should be distributed by way of dividends
assumptions of Walter’s model
- retained earnings are the only source of finance
- cost of capital and rate of return on investments stays constant
- life of company is endless
Residual theory
- company should retain profits needed for investments and projects
- remaining profits distributed
- volatile dividends under this theory
- investors either receive value now as dividend or later in form of capital appreciation
- dividend irrelevancy theory
MM-theory
- investor wealth unaffected by dividend payments
- irrelevancy theory
- if paid dividends that they do not want investors can invest further
- if retains profit then company is making an investment that should yield profits in future -> share price should rise
- if they would prefer dividends investors can sell shares
Efficient market hypothesis
investors should not be able to beat the market
if the market is efficient returns are linked to the risk level of investments, if investors want to maximise returns they should minimise expenses (invest in fund which tracks performance of an index or market as whole)
Insider dealing
occurs when an individual buys or sells shares on the basis of inside info -> criminal offence
portfolio theory
how to construct a portfolio of investments or assets in order to maximise investor’s return for any given level of risk
Expected return from a single investment
Sum of all scenarios: expected return x probability of occurring
expected risk of a single investment
sqrt ( sum of Pi (Xi-X)^2)
where Xi - return expected from scenario i
X - expected return on investment
correlation coefficient
measure of the way in which the return on investment movements match each other in response to a particular event
picking securities whose returns are not perfectly positively correlated can reduce risk of return
combined return of a portfolio
pr1 + (1-p)r2
systematic risk
risk inherent in the political and economic enviro common to all companies - e.g. inflation/interest rate
can never be eliminated
specific risk
encompasses a range of risks specific to an individual company such as changes in market demand
possible to diversify away about 95% of risk by spreading investment across 20 carefully chosen securities