modelling future climate Flashcards
1
Q
variables and scenarios that affect future emissions
A
- global economy
- human lifestyle
- political climate
2
Q
CMIP6
A
- coupled model intercomparison models
- used in AR6 report, the latest IPCC report
- multiple runs of >100 models and 49 modelling groups
- allowed the comparison and calibration of a range of different climate models under different emission scenarios
3
Q
RCP and SSP coupled scenarios
A
- socioeconomic outcomes affect RCPs
- some coupled scenarios highly unlikely
4
Q
SSP1 = sustainability
A
- Gradual and continuous move to sustainability
- Rapid move to renewables
- Equitable distribution of wealth
- Curb on population growth
- Stable cooperative governance
- Consumption directed to lower material growth and lower resource/energy intensity
5
Q
SSP2 = middle of the road
A
- Social, technological and economic trends don’t change notably
- Development of income growth inequitable but patchy
- International cooperation but slow progress
- Still environmental degradation
- Some improvements and a decline in energy intensity
- Income inequalities only slowly improve
6
Q
SSP3 = regional rivalry
A
- Resurgence of nationalism
- Regional conflict
- Policy shift to national and regional interests
- Regions concentrate on on food security, no wider concern for mitigation
- Investments in education and technology decline
- Consumption is materially orientated and energy intensive
- Population growth, slowly in developed countries and quickly in developing countries
7
Q
SSP4 =inequality
A
- Large difference in investment in human capital
- Widening differences in economic and political opportunity
- Fragmentation of society between educated knowledge driven and labour intensive low paid work
- Diversification of energy sector to include carbon and renewables
- Environmental issues focused on localised issues in middle and high income areas
8
Q
SSP5 = fossil-fueled development
A
- Rapid development of technology
- Fueled by fossil fuels
- Strong investment in healthcare and education
- Resource and energy intensive economy
- Global population peaks and declines
- Faith in ability to manage ecological and social systems
9
Q
representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
A
- represent radiative forcing (w/m²) by the end of the century
- based on future emission scenario predictions taking into account population, land use, energy intensity, energy use
10
Q
problems with predicting climate change
A
- depends on future emissions
- can’t rely on past records as it is much more rapid than past climate warming
11
Q
improvements in climate models
A
- better knowledge of systems
- increased computational power
12
Q
most recent IPCC models
A
- 50-100 layers in ocean and atmosphere
- horizontal resolution of 50-200km²
- updateable every 30 minutes
- contains regional models with much higher resolution
13
Q
radiative forcing, global energy balance
A
- the changing of energy stores within a system
- solar energy is received (incidence), reflected, stored or used then reemitted
- global temperature depends on the amount of this energy that is emitted into space
- cooling + incidence < emitted
- warming = incidence > emitted
14
Q
global climate models (GCMs)
A
- comprehensive 3D models based on physical laws represented by mathematical equations
- uses a 3D grid across the globe
- used to model future climate change
- uses sub-models of all major parts of the climate system: ocean, atmosphere, topography, biosphere, cryosphere
15
Q
parameterisation
A
- some factors happen over a smaller scale than the grids used in CGMs such as atmospheric chemistry, production and movement of aerosols, cloud formation and ocean convection
- smaller scale models within a grid check for accuracy and then an average is taken
