Model of decision making process Flashcards
on what depends the decision making process?
on who is the decision maker and on how decision maker(s) take decision
the whole environment influence the decision.
What is the decision making process?
a process that focuses
- on the people involved in the policy process
- and on the part of process that deals with choosing among alternative course of action.
you have a problem with a country. what are your opportunities?
Persuasion: send diplomats and try to convince that what he is doing is stupid.
very cheap and could have a lot of benefits
Bribery (try to convince him with money)
could cost you a lot
Embargo
depending on how much you trade with them. if you cost a lot
Threaten him to attack
risk: if you threaten all the time but never attack you lose credibility
War: you attack him
is the most expensive option
Model 1: Rational actor model
you look at the situation as a whole
- governmental action as a choice
- the nation or the government, conceived as a rational, unitary, decision maker, is the agent.
- the government act as UNITARY actors (monoliths) (government as a whole take the decision. they follow a goal and work together toward that goal. think align
- government are RATIONAL actors
Problems (but also valuable: especially in situation characterized by a major threat, a short or finite decision time, and surprise, also predict other side’s actions.
Rationality
ability to relate means to ends.
calculation of costs and benefits
you decide depending on calculations
Model 2: Organization Process
Government actions as an organization output: decision makers is not the gov. as a whole but the CONSTELLATION of it.
the different department are part of the decision
- government are made up of a conglomerate of semi-feudal loosely allied organization
- governmental decision & behavior as the outputs of large organization functioning according to standard patterns of behavior
- organizations use standard operating procedures (SOPs), routines or programs. you look at the past actions to decide what you will do next. how much we spend this defense this year? pretty much the same as last year.
SOP: rule according to which things are done
Problem: because of small steps there is the risk of implementing a polity that was never intended. because you never evaluate the situation as a while!
Incremental vs Grand Decision
Grand Decision: based on a large view of the situation, find optima or most rational choice.
Incremental decision: in order to minimize uncertainty and risk, rely on the familiar, reduce the number of alternative to be examined and reduce the complexity of an analysis. I will act in the same way I have done in the past.
Characteristics of Incremental decisions
Remedial: easily reversed or changed in proven wrong
(disarmament, you won’t take the grand decision. you take small steps. if something goes wrong, you can rebuild the same amount you destroyed last year)
Serial: build on previously accepted actions
Exploratory: explore new policy areas and still pull back if new direction look to be costly of ineffective.
Model 3: Governmental (Bureaucratic) politics
Governmental actions as political resultant - decision maker are individual
each individual in the leadership (from the president to the foreign minister to the army general) is a player who acts in a rational way in a competitive game. Politicians, head of departments (individuals) want to maximize their OWN BENEFITS.
Gov. actions are results of BARGAINING GAMES among the player in the gov.
Decision and actions results from compromise, conflict and confusion of official with diverse interest and unequal influence.
Problem: the government decision and actions may not be the best for the nation as a whole.
–> secretary of different department may back your idea in exchange of something.
An international system can be
Unipolar
Bipolar (2 poles (countries or groups) Cold war
Multipolar (many poles) US+NATO, Russia, China
how is the international system today?
Multipolar but we have a superpower: US
–> Hegemony
the US after WWII founded NATO to maintain peace, GATT because trade if good from peace
World bank and IFM
this Hegemony won’t last if the US doesn’t get support from the international community (trump case)
Opportunity structure
International system
Relationship within the players
Type of political system
(democratic elected leader is contained)
society (economic power and population)
(economic might of the country makes a different. little CH cannot use embargo!
Role of individual and decision makers
individual and personality
–> this determines the opportunity and constrains. Whether you will do it is willingness.
