Migration and Urbanization Flashcards
how has world urban population grown
1950 = 29%, 55% = 2019
- the higher the income = more likely live in urban
- hard to track because of no documentation = census
what are the waves of urbanisation
first wave = mid 18th century
- western countries
- few hundred million people
second wave = rural migration of developing countries now
- far faster than 1st wave
- 2 billion movement of people
benefits of migration
- skilled labour pool
- increasing returns to scale
- transport costs
- information
concerns of migration
- governments dont like growing populations = want it to slow down
- 90/116 countries had policies to slow migration = UN reports
- unemployment urban
- crime
- congestion and pollution
- lack of clean water
- not enough infrastructure
millenium development goals slums
achieved
reduced number of people living in slums by 100 million
future of urbanisation
- depopulation of rural areas
from 2005 - 2050 = 13% rise for developed countries
= 135% for developing
- cities in developing world will be home to over 83% of the worlds population
what are the 2 theories concerning the role played by rural - urban migration for growth
Lewis model = thinks migration is good = capital accumulation needed for growth = development
- caused by high urban wages
Todaro model = creates serious problem of unemployment = should discourage rural-urban migration
- caused by high urban wages
what is the Lewis model
- role of agriculture is very important in facilitating development of non-agri sectors
- provides labour and surplus of food
- industry supports agriculture too = supplies inputs, supplies their demand
- economic development as progressive transformation of traditional to modern
what is dual economy
coexistence of traditional and modern
Description of lewis model
- movement of labour from a to i
- t supplies l and m soaks up supply
- produces when MPL is close to 0 = high population pressure = small family farms overemployed
assumptions of Lewis model
labour is unlimited in supply - from traditional sector
rate of savings and investment limits the pace of development = capital accumulation is engine of growth
how is it possible to employ when MPL = 0
- not thinking as an entrepreuner = profit maximising = MPL = wage
- whereas family farm values the incomes received by each of its members, not really a set wage = but average output
what is diguised unemployment
the idea that adding more labour wont do anything to add to output
- there is not efficient allocation of resources
- when MPL argiculture < MPL in industry there is gain to be had from moving labour to industry
difference between surplus labour and surplus labourers
want to get rid of surplus labourers
but not decrease agri output
otherwise food prices increase, wages industrial increase, slows down CA
remaining labourers need to adjust their input
3 main features of traditional sector
- surplus labour
- wage rate is average output
- disguised unemployment
describing the 3 models
- agri output and labour
1
- flipped pf
- A - B = surplus gets moved to industry with no impact on output
2
- disguised unemployment - MP<wage rate industrial - not economically efficient place to operate
- B - C can be moved to industry
3.
- commercialisation
- cant take any more people away from agri
- need labour to make output
describing the 3 models
- average agricultural surplus and industry labour
- a-b
agricultural surplus is constant - b-c
output is starting to fall and surplus
more people joining industrial labour force - c
no more people can join - all needed in agri
describing the 3 models
- industrial wage and labour
- a-b
constant wage rate - absorbs all the new labourers that show up with surplus food - b-c
output is reducing so prices are increasing - wages have to increase because of inflation - high demand for food - c
significant increase in wages to compete with agri - dont want people to move back
what are the 2 turning points in the model
turning point at B = when all surplus is gone
turning point at C = end up in competition with each other
explaining the demand curves in industrial wage and labour graph
- absorb all surplus labour at wage w1
- they make profits and reinvest so need more labour
- demand curve shifts right = still in suplus labour phase = w1 = employs more labour
- higher demand curve = now in disguised unemployment = output decreases = wages increase w2
- because of wage increase industry hires less people
- both now in competition
harris and todaro model
- the high urban wages creates urban unemployment - more people want to move but not enough jobs
- chance that once migrated end up unemployed / informal sector
why are there higher urban wages
- government policy = min wage
- can higher better workers = effort incentive
- unionized
compared to
- low volatile wages
- gov policy difficult to implement
- family labour - no wage increases
- monitorable
why is there unemployment
- if there were different wages = incentive to move to higher wage employment
- if wages were the same = unemployment = cant be located in agriculture so move to urban
- rational migration even though wages are the same
what is the decision of potential migrants
- choose between relative safe option and gamble to move to urban where high paying job - may get it or not
- those that dont get a job = informal
what is the expected wage of urban migration
the probability of getting a formal wage times the formal wage + the probability of not getting a formal job times the prob of getting an informal job times the informal wage rate
equilibrium when expected urban wage = agricultural wage
- allocation of l between three sectors
what are the causes of rural urban migration
pull factors
- higher wage rates urban
- managing risk by diversifying income
- securing target income
- consumption smoothing
- social variables
- temporary circular migration
what are the characteristics of people more likely to migrate
men
young
highly skilled
large families
unmarried
history of migration
non pecuniary attractions
imporved access to range of public services
health education
bright lights
if its closer more likely to move
what are push factors
financial pressures
poverty
unemployment
government policies that neglect agriculture
war
