midterm answers

Question 1

Counterfactual

Answer 1

A statement which postulates the opposite of the facts being observed in order to imagine what the impact of the actual fact is. In order to understand how men impact interstate politics we can imagine a world in which all men are dead and women run the world.

Question 2

Most common misperception causing overexpansion

Answer 2

Relative power of the opponent; either through misperception of bandwagon vs balance dynamics or because of the inherent uncertainty in the international system. Germany overexpanded in WWII misperceiving the capacity of other states (US) to counter them.

Question 3

Draw a method of agreement and method of difference.

Answer 3

Comparing events with a common effect to see either what they have in common or what they have different to understand their causes. If you were to set-off the library alarm on leaving with a book in your schoolbag, you would progressively empty the contents of the bag until you were left with the book that you forgot to sign out. The book that sets off the alarm is the one that you took out of your bag.

Question 4

What are the two general causes of war?

Answer 4

1) states disagree on the distribution of power; 2) wars happen when status quo is intolerable and they preempt a feared attack. A 1955 Czech Arms Deal lead Israel to attack Egypt because Israel feared an imminent attack.

Question 5

Three necessary conditions of deterrence

Answer 5

Communication, Credibility and Capacity. US was unable to successfully deter North Korea from attacking South Korea because they failed to communicate that South Korea was under their protection in the fight against communism.

Question 6

Immediate vs General deterrence

Answer 6

Immediate deters in the moment by demonstrating that costs of a conflict are too high for their payoff, while general raises the threat level high enough that other states do not consider intervention. US employs general deterrence against Mexico because they have a significantly higher capacity for war.

Question 7

Stability-Instability Paradox

Answer 7

In order to increase security states increase weapons, which makes their opponent feel insecure and increase their weapons, which in turn makes the original more insecure. Cold War Soviet-US arms race lead to mutual insecurity.

Question 8

Defensive Chaingaining

Answer 8

States are so closely committed to an ally they end up being restrained into an unwanted war. Germany needed allies pre-WWI so they committed themselves closely to Austro-Hungarian Empire which led to them being restrained into entrance in WWI.

Question 9

Three Effects of the Collective Action problem

Answer 9

Free-riding: not contributing as much because other states need to be more highly committed; sanctioning problem: there is no way to sanction an ally to force them to follow alliance; calculation problem: coordination costs increase with the number of states in an alliance. Canada’s involvement in NATO is of a free-riding nature because the US and other allies commit more highly to the alliance than Canada.

Question 10

Goals of Balance of Power

Answer 10

1) the system retains all of its essential characteristics so that no single nation becomes dominant;
2) that most of its members continue to survive; 3). that large scale war does not occur. America’s apparent protection of Taiwan against China in order to deter a Chinese attack, helps maintain the status quo and prevent war between China and Taiwan

Question 11

Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Controversy

Answer 11

Discusses whether a bipolar or multipolar system is more stable; bipolar - states form balancing coalitions, multipolar - does not allow the conflict of major powers. Cold War was a bipolar system with conflict between the major powers, but they balanced against each other and there was no general war.

Question 12

Why do general wars last long?

Answer 12

Fighting on multiple fronts, accounting for several interests among coalitions, and no one to restrain because everyone picks a side. WWII lasted a long time because Germany was fighting on multiple fronts, and could not create decisive victory on all fronts because they were spread out.

Question 13

What effect does an offensive or defensive advantage have on alliances?

Answer 13

Offensive advantage leads to chainganging, defensive advantage leads to buck-passing/free-riding. USSR buckpassed to France and England in WWII.

Question 14

Power Transition Theory

Answer 14

Conflict occurs as a hegemon is decreasing in power and a challenger is increasing. As power transitions so does the status of hegemon. If we see a confrontation between the US and China this will be an example with US as the hegemon and China as the challenger.

Question 15

Kindleberger’s theory of war causation

Answer 15

Hegemons are lenders and markets of last resort and their failure to act in this role leads to conflict. WWII was brought on by US’s failure to act as hegemon and remove its protectionist trade barriers which launched the war.

Question 16

Extensive form prisoners dilemma game

Answer 16

The one that looks like a flow chart. During the Cold War cooperation between US and USSR would have led to mutual security but they were embroiled in the prisoners dilemma which made neither of them disarm.

Question 17

Expected Utility Calculation with equal expected utility.

Answer 17

($100)(25%)=($50)(50%). Saddam Hussein’s expected utility calculation from Iraq: utility of action vs inaction weighed against the likelihood of American intervention.

Question 18

Four benefits of schemas

Answer 18

Select what is important, economical means of storing memory, make inferences, envision and carry out actions towards a goal. Bush’s schema from military experience allowed him to make quick judgement on Saddam Hussein, comparing him in his schema to Hitler.

Question 19

Prospect Theory

Answer 19

Individuals are more risk averse vs risk acceptant. Risk averse when dealing with new gains, risk acceptant when dealing with regaining old losses. Palestinians are risk acceptant when it comes to their conflict with Israel because they see that land as lost.

Question 20

Endowment effect

Answer 20

Because people see losses as more weighty than gains they are likely to see the concessions they make in bargaining as more significant than those they receive, leading to challenges in bargaining. Post WWII bargaining saw Germany completely decimated, but Europe thought it was justified.

Question 21

Condorcet Paradox

Answer 21

Policy makers preference ranks cycle leading to problems in decision making. Cuban Missile Crisis responses of bomb, sanction, and blockade. Do a drawing.

Question 22

Five step formula for justification of hostility crisis

Answer 22

1) Exploit a provocation; 2) make unacceptable demands; 3) legitimize demands with international principles; 4) deny or understate objective; 5) employ rejection of demand as casus belli. Japanese expansion justified by Manchurian attack on Japanese bridge, which turned out to actually be self-inflicted.

Question 23

Three problems with Richardsonian Arms Race Model

Answer 23

1) it is easy to tell what is a normal point of equilibrium; 2) no explanation for how increased spending instability leads to war; 3) military spending increase could be anticipation rather than cause of war. Israel attacked Egypt because they saw their arms deals as a preparation for imminent war and they wanted to preempt it.

Question 24

Two of the Three Reasons for Democratic Peace

Answer 24

1) normative: the social norms within a democratic state do not allow for “unjustified” war; 2) organizational: institutional organization of democratic governments prevents war. The US used the spread of democracy as a normative justification for intervention in Latin America through secret operations.

Question 25

What are diversionary war, scapegoating and rally-around-the-flag effect, how are they different?

Answer 25

1) diversionary: using a conflict to distract from internal issues; 2) scapegoating: blaming internal issues on external source; 2) rally-around-the-flag: the positive/government-supporting impact of external conflict. All involve externalization, but the motivation is distinct. Sino-Soviet War is a diversionary war to help stem the tide of revolution in Soviet Union.

Question 26

Organizational Biases of Military Organizations

Answer 26

1) hierarchical: intelligence up the chain, commands down; 2) fast acting: first strike leads to success, low propensity for diplomacy; 3) small: few decision makers. Israel has a lot of military members in its government and has a tendency to strike first like in its conflict against Egypt where it struck first and claimed self defense because Egypt was buying weapons.

Question 27

Lebow’s four types of crisis

Answer 27

1) justification of hostility: a pre-existing policy for conflict exists and crisis is used as casus belli; 2) spinoff: a crisis spills over from a larger conflict to a third party state; 3) accidental: a crisis occurs without preconceived intention to do so; 4) brinkmanship: a crisis is used to demonstrate a state is not dedicated to its values. German U-Boats bombing British naval ships accidentally hit an American civilian ship creating a spinoff crisis.

Question 28

Three effects of groupthink

Answer 28

1) unanimity; 2) dehumanization; 3) victimization. WWII groupthink caused Nazis to be able to dehumanize and “justify” the murder of Jewish people.

Question 29

Cybernetic decision making in military governments

Answer 29

Military leaders in civilian governments operate within the constrains of the constitutionally run organization, they are more likely to be conservative in their advocacy for war. War is policy by other means. President Truman fired a US commander general for being to forceful in his policy recommendations for war.