midterm Flashcards
Logical reasoning
- induction
- deduction
deduction
- ## a logical process in which the conclusion does not contain more info than the premises from which it’s based
deduction: Modus Ponens
P→ Q (conditional statement) - All birds have feathers
P (propositional stated) - Robins are birds
Q (conclusion deduced) - Robins have feathers.
deduction: Syllogism
P→ Q - If John is sick, then he will be absent.
Q → R - If John is absent, then he will miss his classwork.
P→ R - If John is sick, then he will miss his classwork
Deductive arguments are evaluated in terms of ….
their validity and soundness
validity
follows deductive logic
soundness
premises are true and the argument is valid
can you have a valid argument that isn’t sound? how about a sound argument that isn’t valid?
-you can have a valid argument that isn’t sound
P→ Q (conditional statement) - All birds have language
P (propositional stated) - Robins are birds
Q (conclusion deduced) - Robins have language
VALID BUT NOT SOUND
-but no way to have a sound argument that isn’t valid
-if it’s not valid and it’s not sound, it’s not a deduction-it’s a weak induction
Induction
a logical process in which the conclusion contas more info than the premises from which it’s based. It’s uncertain. Ex: John is a grandfather John is bald All grandfathers are bald
how are inductive arguments evaluated?
Inductive arguments are not evaluated for validity or soundness - they are strong or weak
theory
- an idea about how something in the world works-don’t need to test to have a theory-it’s a guess
- we don’t really know anything-it’s all theories
- real definition: a statement about the probable relationship between things in the world
- Scientific theories are testable and make falsifiable predictions (falsifiable=something you can test and prove wrong)
- theories are inductive, but must allow for deductive reasoning
The problem of induction
- can inductive arguments give us knowledge?
- there is no justification for generalizing from some number of observations, or an assumption that the world will always work the same in the future
hypothesis
a testable prediction deduced from a theory
the null hypothesis
- a general statement or default position that there is no relationship between 2 measured phenomena
- A null result falsifies the theory generated through inductive reasoning
statistical inference
- estimate properties of a population based on a sample
- inferring properties of population based on what happened in an experiment with a subgroup of that population
Karl Popper and falsification
- challenged the idea that findings confirmed a theory. Instead, Popper claimed that positive findings corroborated a theory, and tests should be designed to falsify theories
- If P, then Q; not P, therefore not Q
- Negative results require a revision of the theory
- doesn’t totally escape induction
- theories have more or less verisimilitude (i.e., degree of positive empirical support)
Problems: one must assume a null model. How is reality distributed? is it always normal?
Induction again!
-we assume a normal distribution-if falls within that, accept null
What are the alternatives to a null model?
- Have more sound apriori assumptions (bring in more realistic prior assumptions into the equation)
- Compare diff models
What are the alternatives?
- Have more sound apriori assumptions
- Compare diff models
What is the difference between induction and deduction?
Deduction: start with lots of info-funnel your way down to conclusion-only with info from top
Induction: all info follows logically from the statement above it-generalizing from a very specific point-conclusion has more info than premises
What do validity and soundness refer to?
- validity: has logical flow-the deductive format flows logically
- Soundness: has to do with accuracy-the premises being true
- for deductive arguments
How do you evaluate inductive arguments?
-by weak or strong
pretty subjective, so on exam will be pretty extreme ends of spectrum-very weak or very strong-so easy to tell
John is a guy/John is a brunette/all guys are brunette. What is this?
-An induction
Scientific theories must be ___ and _____
testable and falsifiable