Midterm 3 Flashcards
Validity
Argument is valid if truth of premises guarantees truth of conclusion; only depends on form, not content
Induction
Truth of premises affects probability of conclusion; content dependent
Normative theory
Describes how we should make inferences
Descriptive theory
Describes how people actually reason
Content effect
Deductive reasoning is affected by content of the premises or conclusion, not just the form
Belief bias
People tend to judge conclusion consistent with prior beliefs as valid even when they are not
Falsification
To assess inductive hypothesis, one should look for evidence that falsify it
Confirmation bias
People tend to evaluate hypotheses by seeking evidence that would confirm rather than falsify
Judgement and decision making people
Kahneman, Tversky
Expected value theory
Decision made based on option with highest monetary value; but psychological value != monetary
Expected utility theory
Selecting option with highest subjective utility; but often decisions are influenced by non utility factors
Framing effects
Choices affected by format they are presented in; gains - risk averse; loss - risk taking
Representativeness heuristics
People more likely to judge option as likely if it’s representative of its category
Conjunction fallacy
People judge conjunction as more probable due to it being more representative
Availability heuristics
People make judgement on basis of what is readily brought to mind
