Midterm Flashcards
What is the nuclear model of the Atom
Tiny, dense nucleus at the center contains all the positive charge and most of the mass electrons orbiting the nucleus. Vs Plum Model with uniform distribution of pos neg charge throughout.
What is Alpha and Beta radiation
Ionizing radiation from unstable atomic nuclei that can remove electrons, create ions and damage cells and DNA. Alpha - 2 protons and neutrons, low penetration, highly ionizing, dangerous if inhaled or ingested. Beta high speed electrons, moderate penetration, moderately ionizing, can penetrate skin causing damage to tissues
What happens when a nucleus disintegrates and produces alpha radiation
It emits an alpha particle (2 protons and neutrons) a helium 4 nucleus. Reduces the original atomic number by 2, mass by 4 transforming into a different element
What is the relationship between fission of a uranium atom and fission
Fission is where the nucleus of a heavy atom splits into two smaller nuclei along with a few neutrons and a large amount of energy. When Uranium undergoes fission it releases additional neutrons that produce further fission events in the U-235 nuclei leading to a chain reaction that is the basis for nuclear reactors and atomic bomb
What are isotopes
Variants of an element with the same # protons/atomic number but different neutrons thus different atomic mass Almost identical physical and chemical properties, very different nuclear characters and difficult to separate
What is nuclear fission
Nuclear reaction, nucleus of an atom splits into 2 or more smaller nuclei along with the release of significant energy, neutrons and gamma radiation / radioactive products
What is a chain reaction
When the neutrons released by fission of one atomic nucleus causes additional fission in nearby nuclei leading to a self sustaining series of reactions Controlled - nuclear reactor - constantly producing energy. Uncontrolled -bomb reaction rapidly escalates releasing massive energy in a short period of time
What is Uranium 235 and importance in atomic bomb design
naturally occuring isotope used in nuclear reactors and weapons due to its ability to undergo fission readily when it absorbs a neutron perpetuates the chain reaction necessary for an explosion
What is plutonium and what is its importance in atomic bomb design
A man made element created in nuclear reactors from U238 Pu-239 is fissile and can sustain a chain reaction and important in atomic bomb (implosion) due to ability to undergo rapid fission
What are gaseous diffusion and electromagnetic separation intended to accomplish?
Producing enriched uranium necessary for efficient and sustainable nuclear reactions in reactors and bombs.
Separate isotopes based on their mass differences
What is the gun barrel design used in the Hiroshima bomb
Used in Little Boy / Hiroshima 2 subcritical masses of U-235 brought together rapidly by a conventional explosive creating a supercritical mass that initiates a nuclear explosion Gun mechanism to fire one piece of U235 to another
What is the implosion design used in the fat man bomb
Plu 235 surrounded by conventional explosives when detonated explosives compress Plu core into a superficial state initiating a nuclear explosion. More efficient and compact Nagasaki
What is nuclear fission and how does it related to the hydrogen bomb
Process in which 2 light atomic nuclei combine to form a heavier nucleus, releasing a tremendous amount of energy. Process powers the sun and stars Hydrogen bomb uses fission bomb as a trigger to create extremely high temperatures and pressure necessary for fusion to occur. Fusion reactions significantly increase the explosive power of the bomb compared to fission alone
What was Little Boy
Atomic Bomb dropped on Hiroshima 8/6/45 U-235 bomb 15 kilotons of TNT 1st nuclear weapon used in warfare
What was Fatman
Atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki 8/9/45 Plu 239 bomb more complex and efficient than Little boy 21kilotons of TNT
Status of food supplies in Japan summer 45 and then after surrender in Aug ‘45
Severely strained. Agriculture output declining due to war, destruction of infrastructure and transportation complicated food distribution , disruption to global food supply chain. 8 ‘45 worsened significantly war dammage, poor harvest,Allied blockade threatened widespread famine Food aid came after surrender but rebuilding food system was challenging
What did Japanese leadership decide Aug 9/10 45 Who broke stalemate what was ultimate decision?
PostDam declaration discussed, Emperor Hirohito broke the stalemate to accept and surrender
What was the PostDam declaration
Statement issued by the Allies outlining the terms of Japans surrender. Called for unconditional surrender of Japans armed forces and threatened prompt and utter destruction if Japan didnt comply
According to Frank, why was the atomic bombing critical to Japans surrender
- Destructive Power - shock and awe
- Psychological Impact of devastation undermined confidence in continuing the war
- Loss of strategic options to defend or recover from further attacks
- Diplomatic pressure with the soviet entry
- Emperor Hirohitos decisive intervention
What were arguments that atomic bombings didnt cause Japan to surrender
1.Soviet Unions declaration of War and invasion of Manchuria greatest factor
2. Timing of Surrender
3. Lack of Immediate Japan response after bombings
4. Impact on military strategy cant fight 2 front war
5. Atomic bombing no worse an impact than the conventional bombing
6. Diplomatic communication that Soviet entry was dire and urgent threat
7. Internal communications leaders previously resistant increasingly influenced by Soviet actions
Japanese reaction to Hiroshima
Shock and disbelief but not uniform amongst leadership some wanted to continue war didnt prompt immediate surrender
Arguments and Evidence that Soviet invasion prompted surrender
- Strategic Collapse - overran defenses preventing a 2 front war
- Loss of diplomatic leverage - Soviet Union no longer possible diplomatic ally and now Japan isolated
- Immediate impact on leadership urgency and dispair forced reassessment of position
Allied casualties / week 1945
Several thousand / week
Difference between Deterrence by denial and Deterrence by punishment
Deterrence maintains the status quo, prevention through effective defenses or military capabilities that make attacks too difficult or likely to succeed Reduces the chances of successful attack Sending soliders to defeat
Deterrence by Punishment - Change the status quo. Threatening significant Retaliation to dissuade agression like nuclear or sanctions if an attack occurs, we wont try to prevent you We will impose consequences THe prospect of fighting vs possibility of losing causes restrraint
What is MAD and why a fact rather than policy
Mutual Assured Destruction 2 opposing sides have the capability to destroy each other. The mere existence of nuclear weapons on both sides ensures this outcome regardless of formal policies or agreements
Nuclear Revolution
THe profound shift in strategic thinking caused by nuclear weapons making war potentially suicidal and fundamentally altering international relations and military strategy
Expected Consequences of MAD
- States with nuclear capabilities are deterred from waging war with each other
- Increased emphasis on maintaining a 2nd strike capability to ensure retaliation
- Arms race to develop and maintain credible nuclear forces
- Nuclear arms control agreements to prevent escalation
Jervis - What is more important in political outcomes balance of power or interest?
Interest because states are more likely to take risks for issues they value highly
Jervis Valid vs Invalid Ideas
- Nuclear weapons stabilize international relationships and deter major conflicts
- Nuclear superiority does not provide significant strategic advantages due to mutual vulnerability that persists regardless of superiority
What is 1st and 2nd strike capability
1st Strike - Ability to destroy an opponents nuclear forces in a surprise attack that significantly degrades ability to retaliate
2nd Strike - Assured ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons even after absorbing a first strike thus ensuring deterrence
Difference between Countrvalue and Counterforce
Countervalue are cities and people Counterforce is military and infrastructure to reduce ability to retaliate
Stability - Instability Paradox
Nuclear weapons ensure strategic stability by dissuading large scale wars but encourage lower level conflicts that wont escalate to full scale nuclear war
Extended Deterrence
Protection of allies
Security Dilemma
States efforts to enhance security prompts fear and leads other states to respond in kind escalating tensions even though neither side seeks conflict
Vertical and Horizontal Escalation
Vertical - Progressively destructive weapons Conventional to Tactical to Strategic Nuclear Potential for Catastrophic destruction
Horizontal - Broadening the scope of conflict support from allies NATO increases complexity and scale of conflict increasing chances of a miscalculation that can lead to vertical escalation
Crisis Instability
When the conditions in an international crisis make it likely that either side will feel compelled to strike first. Belief in offensive advantages of first strike capability heightens instability by creating strong incentives for offensive action
Ignoring negative evidence
Cognitive Bias where decision makers discount, disregard or undervalue information that contradicts their existing beliefs expectations or desired outcomes. Leads to underestimating opponents capabilities or resolve leading to miscalculations that can escalate conflict
Belief Persevearance
Clinging to a belief even in the face of contrary evidence Stubborness prevents from adjusting strategies rigid and fllawed decision making Discounting Olive Branch Not knowing your own actions how will be interpreted Chinese Intervention in Korean War Focus on benefits not acknowledging risks or tradeoffs failing to account for retaliation Not fully understand the interpretation of their actions that can be perceived as threatning
Perceptions of Coordination Planning and Centralization
Belief that opponents actions are well coordinated meticulously planned and centrally directed Leads to overestimating threats assuming hostile intentions
How many warheads does the US have deployed and in reserve
3708 1770 deployed ICBMs intercontinental SLBM submarine launched strategic bombers
Nuclear Posture Review US Policy on No 1st Use
US does not adopt and maintains strategic ambiguity
Minuteman ICBMS
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles based in silos we have 400
B52 Bombers
Longrage Subsonic jet powered WE have 76
B2 Bombers
Stealth Bomber capable of carrying conventional and nuclear weapons WE operate 20
How would the US launch non strategic US Missiles How Many
DCA (dual capable aircraft) F15 F16 F35 fighters 230
Ohio Class Submarines
Nuclear powered submarines equipped with Trident II SLBM 14
GMD
Ground Based Midcourse Defense Intercepts incoming warheads in space during midcourse phase Only system capable of defending US from long range ballistic missile attacks could defeat N Korean Not Russian Misslies
Aegis
Naval component BMD intercept and destroy short to intermediate range missiles Aegis equipped ships and Aegis Ashore installations
THAAD
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Designed to intercept and destroy short range medium and intermediate range missiles in their terminal phase
Patriot
Ground Based missile defense to intercept tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft
MTCR
Missile Technology Control Regime Established by G7 countries Multilateral export control regime 1987 to prevent proliferation of missile and UAV unnamed aerial vehicle technology capable of carrying 500kg payload at least 300km Encourages member countries to adopt export control policies on missile technology, Promote transparency and information sharing among member states,
3 Means Countries Protect Nuclear Forces from Attack
- Hardening fortifying nuclear facilities and missile silos to withstand attack Relatively Cheap Technology, Basic - need lots of land. Hard to hide Google Earth, Cat & Mouse problem
- Concealment: Mobility, Camouflage, Underground Facilities
- Redundancy Deploying large number of weapons and delivery systems to ensure a portion will survive an attack
Trends in Missile Accuracy over time
Significant Improvements Technological advances, precise guidance systems, increase effectiveness of counterforce strategies making it easier to target and destroy enemy nuclear forces 1945 Nagasaki bomb 2 miles off target ,ballistic missiles limited ability to self correct course 70s wire guided missiles able to be controlled, Cruise missiles self correct and satelite guided GPS, Few dozen meters now 1985 55% likelihood 2019 75%
Trends in transparency that make concealment more difficult?
Advances in surveillance technology, satelite imagery, electronic intellignce More and More data about earths surface Drones can linger longer
Was US able to track Soviet Missiles during the Cold War What implications does this have
Yes, with a high degree of success Advancements in tracking and surveillance could continue to challenge concealment of submarines and other mobile nuclear platforms Vulnerability that ours can be tracked too
Why are countermeasures unlikely to be able to maintain the surviveability of nuclear weapons over time
Becoming less effective due to continuous advancement in offensive capabilities such as improved missile accuracy , enchanced surveillance and more sophisticaed penetration aids Cat tends to win. 1st strike survival is lkely to continue but unlikely to succeed
Would US be able to track N Korean Missiles
Difficult but possible. Rugged terrain helps concealment Advancement in surveillance and reconaissance technology can improve tracking capabilities over time
Can Counterforce attacks produce relatively low levels of civilian causalites?
In theory, yes, but practically the destruction of military targets could still have significant collateral dammage and use of nuclear weapons inherently carries a risk of high civilian casualties due to the widespread effects of nuclear explosions. Military assets close to highly populated civilian areas To eliminate N Korean arsenal would Kill S Koreans
What are Salami tactics
Strategy of advancing through small incremental steps not provacative enough individually to trigger a strong response from adversaries. Each action in isolation seems minor 2014 crimea , conflict in China Sea
Relenquishing the Initiative Last Clear Chance
Intentionally allowing the the adversary to take the next step to expose their intentions or relenquish responsibility for escalation WW11 W Berlin, dont want Russia to invade Airlift to fly food and coal relenquishes the initiative so Moscow now has to respond
Last Clear chance
Concept described by Shelling where a party in a conflict has the final opportunity to avoid escalation or avert a crisis The moment when responsibility for further preventing conflict rests with one side Failure to act and they bear the blame
Making the Commitment automatic
Taking decisions out of the hands of humans lower level commanders ability to deploy weapons Computers the ability to start war AI Autonomous weapons
Brinkmanship
2 parties pushing dangerous events to the brink of disaster to achieve the most advantageous outcome by demonstrating willingness to go to extreme lengths. A way to make an incredible threat more credible You wouldnt follow through with an action that would lead to your own death but you would risk something that could contribute to it
Interdependence of Commitments
The diplomatic and reputational cost of not following through with a commitment Breaking or failing to uphold commitments undermines credibility - Escalation of Vietnam War Schelling things this is a good thing makes commitments more credible and less likely adversaries will attack allies
Trip Wire Forces
Military units deployed in such a way that an attack on them would signal a wider response Acts as a deterrent demonstrates commitment and readiness to escalate
Deterrence vs Compellence
Deterrence is maintaining the status quo by discouraging action for fear of retaliation. Threatning negative consequences if they proceed. If you attack S Korea we will attack.
Compellence - Changes the status quo - Enforcing change .Persuading an adversary to take a specific action.
Why are China and other countries attempting to secure control of the S China Sea and what are the Salami tactics
Strategic importance shipping lanes, underwater resources, oil and natural gas, military significance greater influence in region
Salami - building artifical islands, constructing military installations to assert territorial claims, harrasment techniques watercannons and lasers phillipno ships
Kroenig are outcomes of all wars the same
Consequence of nuclear war influenced by nuclear superiority determines extent of dammange and ability to prevail in an attack
Kroenig why does superioity make nuclear coercion more successful
threaten to inflict greater dammage while potentially absorbing a military strike and undermines adversaryes confidence in their ability to respond effectively and more likely to comiply with demands
Kroenigs quantitiave emperical test
Units of Analysis: 1945-2001 52 nuclear crisis dependent variable: Success of coercion attempts
Independent Variable: nuclear superiority
Found strong correlation
Cuban Missile Crisis
Berlin Crisis
1965 US Support for Pakistan
Sescher Furman
Conventional and Diplomatic Forces are more influential weapons are primarily deterrents but not tools of coercion Diplomatic engagement is more important
Case studies nuclear weapons did not singificantly enhance coercive success
1969 Sino Soviet Border Crisis
China Soviet Union Did not escalate into broader war both sides eventually sought peaceful resolution Soviet Union had nuclear advantaage
Kroenig Mao Zedong cautious not to escalate and initiate war
Sescher Fuhrman diplomatic efforts more meaningful not primary high cost and risk of further escalation acknowledged on both sides China agrees to negotiatie but doesnt make concessions
Sescher and Fuhrman why nuclear coercion unlikely to succeed
- Crediblity problem
2.Low Stakes - Risk of escalation cost
- political and normative constraings against use
- limited utlilty ill suited for achieving political objectives without causing unaccetable levels of collateral dammage
- Redundnacy - can coerce with traditional weapons
Why did Khurshve put missiles in Cuba
1 to achieve strategic balance to counter imbalance of US missiles in turkey and italy
2 Protection of Cuba ensuring the survivial of a communist ally
3 Demonstrationof Power
Why did US see this as threatening
1 Proximity to the US capable fo reaching in minutes
2 Vulnerability -heightening the sense of an immediate and direct threat
3. Political Pressure not to appear weak against the threat
Kennedys options
- Air strike to destroy the missiles
- Invasion to remove the threat and Castro regime
- Naval blockade - quarantine to prevent further soviet military shipmetns and pressure removal
Actions Taken
Naval Blockade Diplomatic Efforts
Describe Elements of Deterrence, Compellence and Brinkmansip
Deterrence: MAD the threat of nuclear war , Russia putting missiles to deter invasion of Cuba
Compellence: Naval Blockade pressuring the Soviets to remove the missiles without direct military conflict
Brinkmanship - Kennedys public ultimatum Krushevs refusal to backdown
High Reliability Theory
Assuming organizations want to prevent accidents from happening can do things to reduce risk
1. Make it a Goal
2. Redundancy like nuclear Triad
3. Decentralization culture for rapid response
4. Culture of reliability and safety with signs running simulations
5. Organizational Learning learning and improvements from near misses
