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GEOG 3040 > midterm 10/25 > Flashcards

midterm 10/25 Flashcards

1
Q

What are some important reasons that we forecast the weather?

A
  • Transportation
  • Trade
  • Resource Availability
  • Agriculture
  • Construction
  • Utility Response
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2
Q

What are the 3 main forecasting sectors?

A
  • broadcast
  • government
  • private
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3
Q

(BROADCAST) What are their major roles, and how do they differ?

A
  • share weather forecasts and related stories, as well as NWS advisories, watches and warnings
  • Radio, TV, Internet, Apps
  • mix between presentation and forecast information
  • can be ratings driven
  • funded by media corporations
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4
Q

(GOVERNMENT) What are their major roles, and how do they differ?

A
  • dissemination through NOAA Weather Radios, Internet, smartphone apps
  • hazardous weather events with watches/warnings, short- and long-range forecasts, weather briefings/discussions
  • branches: National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Climate Prediction Center, Military
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5
Q

(PRIVATE) What are their major roles, and how do they differ?

A
  • Forecast for businesses: utility companies, Renewable Energy Agencies, Insurance Companies, Agricultural Corporations
  • Could be its own forecasting business!
  • Makes use of apps: WeatherBug, AccuWeather, Weather Underground
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6
Q

What % confidence under 24 hrs?

A

80%< confidence

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7
Q

What % confidence in 24 hrs?

A

75%-80% confidence

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8
Q

What % confidence in 48 hrs?

A

50-75% confidence

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9
Q

What % confidence in 72 hrs?

A

<50% confidence

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10
Q

What % confidence in +72 hrs?

A

you’ll likely be wrong

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11
Q

What are the 4 Forecasting Methods?

A
  • Method 1: Persistence / Trends
  • Method 2: Climatology
  • Method 3: Analog
  • Method 4: Numerical Weather Prediction (consensus)
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12
Q

Which two methods are most useful? During which type of scenarios are they most useful?

A
  • National Weather Prediction (PoP, models, numbers idk)
  • Analog (forecasting precip type and synoptic scale patterns)
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13
Q

What is NWP?

A

A forecast model is a set (huge, thousands) of mathematical equations that
describe how pressure, temperature, moisture, air density, and wind will
change over time

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14
Q

What does NWP stand for?

A

Numerical Weather Prediction

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15
Q

What are two major factors that influence the accuracy of a model?

A
  • the accuracy/quality of equations to predict atmospheric chaos
  • the accuracy/quality of the observations
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16
Q

What are the 3 main American forecast models?

A
  • Global Forecast System (GFS)
  • North American Mesoscale (NAM)
  • Rapid Refresh (RAP)
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17
Q

What are the strengths/weaknesses of the Global Forecast System?

A
  • strengths: synoptic weather pattern and long-term forecasting, maritime regions
  • weaknesses: topography worse than NAM, does not predict convection well
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18
Q

What are the strengths/weaknesses of North American Mesoscale?

A
  • strengths: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, good rep of topography
  • weaknesses: ??
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19
Q

What are the strengths/weaknesses Rapid Refresh?

A
  • strengths: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, different parameterizations than NAM
  • weaknesses: ??
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20
Q

What is MOS?

A

a statistical model that combines the NWP data with other local variables and runs through a set of regression equations

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21
Q

What does MOS stand for?

A

Model Output Statistics

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22
Q

Be able to describe the differences and similarities between MOS and NWP.

A
  • NWP too simplified
  • it’s NWP mixed with stats to make it harder, better, fast stronger (more accurate, detailed, and realistic)
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23
Q

What is the forecast funnel?

A

The Basic Breakdown you should follow when creating a forecast

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24
Q

Describe the Planetary Scale and what observations are taken with each.

A

Look at hemispheric (global) patterns and how they will affect your forecast

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25
Q

Describe the Synoptic Scale and what observations are taken with each.

A

Looking more nationally, what systems may affect your forecast. “What is the problem of the day?”

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26
Q

Describe the Mesoscale and what observations are taken with each.

A

Regionally, what features are going to effect the overall processes?

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27
Q

Describe the Local Scale and what observations are taken with each.

A

How will terrain and other features influence my forecast?

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28
Q

Why is the forecast funnel useful for forecasting?

A

helps streamline the thought process, and gives due consideration to the atmospheric dynamics

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29
Q

What type of Lake Effect Snow bands are there?

A
  • Wind Parallel Bands
  • Long-Lake axis parallel Bands
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30
Q

what are Wind Parallel Bands?

A
  • occur across the shorter width of the lake
  • generally associated with strong surface winds and shear
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31
Q

What are LLAP (Long-Lake axis parallel) Bands?

A
  • occur in the middle of the lake and stretch it’s length to the leeward shore
  • usually associated with the strongest LES events
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32
Q

What ingredients are needed for Lake Effect Snow?

A

1) High/steep vertical temperature gradient
2) Unfrozen Lake
3) Large Fetch

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33
Q

What is fetch?

A
  • the distance traveled by wind or waves across open water
  • typically need a fetch length greater than 160 km (~100 miles)
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34
Q

What type of soundings produce rain?

A

all temps above freezing

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35
Q

What type of soundings produce freezing rain?

A

goes from freezing and then passes thru a “warm layer” before a light freezing again

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36
Q

How does sleet form while looking at a sounding?

A

after falling through a shallow warm layer aloft and a deep freezing layer at the surface

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37
Q

How does snow form when looking at a sounding?

A

the entirety of the atmosphere is below freezing

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38
Q

What synoptic parameters can we look at to predict rain vs. snow?

A
  • temperature
  • humidity
  • dew point
  • fronts and/or low pressure systems
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39
Q

What are the typical characteristics with the upper levels of the atmosphere?

A
  • jet stream & jet streaks
  • vorticity & vorticity advection
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40
Q

How are these upper air observations taken? What products are useful in this analysis?

A
  • radiosondes
  • rawinsondes (wind speed and direction)
  • soundings (weather balloons)
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41
Q

What are the 5 standard levels of analysis?

A
  • 250mb
  • 300mb
  • 500mb
  • 700mb
  • 850mb
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42
Q

What is the Jet Stream? What are its characteristics?

A
  • high velocity river of low-density air that flows “completely” around the Earth at mid-latitudes
  • weakest in summer
  • strongest in winter
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43
Q

What can the Jet Stream provide in regards to our forecasts?

A
  • steers major weather features at all levels of the atmosphere!
  • a direct effect on atmospheric variables at every level down to the surface
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44
Q

What is Geostrophic flow? How does it relate to the Jet Stream?

A
  • flow is assumed to be parallel to Isohypses
  • steers major weather features at all levels of the atmosphere
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45
Q

Subgeostrophic flow?

A
  • occurs when the centrifugal force counters the PGF via the geostrophic balance model
  • winds are expected to be SLOWER than geostrophic speed
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46
Q

Supergeostrophic flow?

A
  • occurs when the centrifugal force enhances the PGF
  • winds are expected to be FASTER than geostrophic speed
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47
Q

Where would you find Subgeostrophic flow when analyzing upper air maps?

A

troughs

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48
Q

Where would you find Supergeostrophic flow when analyzing upper air maps?

A

ridges

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49
Q

What are the 2 main types of flow and their characteristics?

A
  • zonal (W to E)
  • meridonal (N to S)
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50
Q

What is positive trough orientation?

A
  • produce the least amount of severe weather
  • just chillin’
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51
Q

What is neutral trough orientation?

A

( literally not talked abt so idk )

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52
Q

What is negative trough orientation?

A
  • strong low pressure system (mature)
  • wind shear aids in the formation of supercell thunderstorms
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53
Q

What is a Jet Streak?

A

localized regions of intense winds

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54
Q

What can Jet Streaks signify in regards to a forecast?

A
  • areas of strong convergence and divergence
  • typically the primary weather makers in a trough
  • capable of amplifying/weakening troughs and ridges
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55
Q

What is Vorticity?

A

the clockwise or counter-clockwise spin of the atmosphere in relation to a vertical axis

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56
Q

What two types of vorticity do we observe? What do they mean for surface features?

A

positive (cyclonic) and negative (anticyclonic)

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57
Q

What does positive (cyclonic) vorticity mean for surface features?

A

rising air and falling geopotential heights

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58
Q

What does negative (anticyclonic) vorticity mean for surface features?

A

sinking air and increasing geopotential heights

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59
Q

How does vorticity relate to the Jet Stream Schematic?

A

vorticity (and also shear) is typically enhanced in the presence of jet streaks

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60
Q

shortwave features?

A
  • a “kink” in the height contours is typically indicative of a shortwave flow pattern
  • usually great areas of temperature advection (especially with troughs/fronts)
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61
Q

longwave features?

A
  • typically >1000 km
  • warmer under ridges, cooler under troughs
  • pay attention to the axis of orientation (mostly for troughs)
  • tighter gradient, faster progress (typically W→E)
62
Q

analyze Vertical Velocities.

A
  • Negative = Sinking Motion (Regions of surface CAA)
  • Positive = Upward Motion (Regions of surface WAA, low level convergence)
  • correlates with jet streaks and vorticity advection similar to upper levels
63
Q

analyze Dewpoint Depressions.

A
  • difference between the air temperature and dew point of an area (the smaller the value, the greater the RH)
  • can be indicative of instability
  • saturation of mid-levels
  • upward vertical motion + high RH (low DPD) = cumulus clouds
  • horizontal motion (limited vertical motion) + high RH (low DPD) = stratus clouds
64
Q

Discuss temperature advection and how it affects surface features.

A
  • regions where isotherms cut across isohypses
  • aka baroclinic environments
65
Q

Identify and discuss Low Level Jets and their role in Low Pressure development.

A
  • a channel of increased winds near the surface located in the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone (between a SE High and a NW low)
  • efficient in transporting warm, moist air northward
  • may also increase severe wx %
66
Q

how far out does the Global Forecast System forecast?

A

384 hours (16 days)

67
Q

what is Baroclinic?

A
  • a region with a distinct difference in air masses (a separation of warm/cold air)
  • surface frontal boundaries usually present (typically with troughs and developed low pressure systems)
  • will likely amplify the ridge/trough
68
Q

what is Barotropic?

A
  • a region of uniform temperature distribution
  • a lack of fronts
  • weather features remain fairly static (typically with ridges/zonal flow)
69
Q

what kind of grid spacing does the Global Forecast System have?

A

13x13 km (for first 10 days, 27km after that)

70
Q

how long does it take for the Global Forecast System to run?

A

four hours

71
Q

how far out does the North American Mesoscale forecast?

A

84 hours

72
Q

what grid spacing does the North American Mesoscale have?

A

12x12 km

73
Q

how long does it take for the North American Mesoscale to run?

A

2.5 hours

74
Q

how far out does the Rapid Refresh forecast?

A

18 hours

75
Q

how often does the Rapid Refresh run?

A

hourly

76
Q

what grid spacing does the Rapid Refresh have?

A

13x13 km

77
Q

how long does it take for the Rapid Refresh to run?

A

a little over an hour

78
Q

what is another version of the Rapid Refresh?

A

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

79
Q

Is the Global Forecast System hydrostatic or nonhydrostatic?

A

hydrostatic

80
Q

Is the Rapid Refresh hydrostatic or nonhydrostatic?

A

nonhydrostatic

81
Q

Is the North American Mesoscale hydrostatic or nonhydrostatic?

A

nonhydrostatic

82
Q

What is the cutoff time for the Global Forecast System?

A

2 hr 45 min

83
Q

What is the cutoff time for the Rapid Refresh?

A

1 hr

84
Q

What is the cutoff time for the North American Mesoscale?

A

1 hr 15 min

85
Q

Gridpoint architecture of Global Forecast System?

A

spectral

86
Q

Gridpoint architecture of Rapid Refresh?

A

finite difference

87
Q

Gridpoint architecture of North American Mesoscale?

A

finite difference

88
Q

Boundary conditions for North American Mesoscale?

A

lateral boundary conditions based on previous GFS runs

89
Q

Boundary conditions for Global Forecast System?

A

global = no boundaries

90
Q

Boundary conditions for Rapid Refresh?

A

lateral boundary conditions based on previous GFS runs

91
Q

What does ‘finite’ mean?

A

Solves basic equations for specific points

92
Q

What does ‘spectral’ mean?

A

Forecast changes of amplitude in waves

93
Q

What does ECMWF mean?

A

European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts

94
Q

How far out does the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts forecast?

A

240 hours (10 days)

95
Q

How often does the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts run?

A

twice a day (every 12 hrs)

96
Q

What is the top competitor of the Global Forecast System?

A

European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts

97
Q

for MOS, what is the DT Row?

A

tells you the day the model is looking at

98
Q

for MOS, what is the HR Row?

A

the hours in UTC that the model is forecasting for

99
Q

for MOS, what is the X/N Row?

A

max and min temperatures

100
Q

for MOS, what is the TMP Row?

A

surface temperature

101
Q

for MOS, what is the DPT Row?

A

dewpoint

102
Q

for MOS, what is the CLD Row?

A

cloud cover

103
Q

for MOS, what is the WDR Row?

A

wind direction

104
Q

for MOS, what is the WSP Row?

A

wind speed

105
Q

what unit is the wind speed in in a MOS?

A

knots

106
Q

for MOS, what is the P06 Row?

A

probability of precipitation during that 6 hour period

107
Q

for MOS, what is the P12 Row?

A

probabiluty of precip during that 12 hour period

108
Q

for MOS, what is the Q06 Row?

A

quantitative precip forecast (QPF) for liquid equilivient during that 6 hour period

109
Q

The GPF is based on an _______. (meaning 0 is nothing and 6 is the highest level)

A

intensity scale

110
Q

for MOS, what is the Q12 Row?

A

QPF precip amount for that 12 hour period

111
Q

for MOS, what is the T06 Row?

A

probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe storms during that 6 hour period

112
Q

for MOS, what is the T12 Row?

A

probability of thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms during that 12 hour period

113
Q

for MOS, what is the POZ/POS Row?

A
  • probability of freezing (POZ)
  • probability of snow (POS)
114
Q

for MOS, what is the TYP Row?

A

verbal representation of the predicted precip

115
Q

for MOS and the TYP Row, what does R represent?

A

rain

116
Q

for MOS and the TYP Row, what does S represent?

A

snow

117
Q

for MOS and the TYP Row, what does Z represent?

A

mixed

118
Q

for MOS, what is the SNW Row?

A

snowfall forecast for a 24-hour period

119
Q

for MOS, what is the CIG Row?

A

ceiling height forecast

120
Q

for MOS, what is the VIS Row?

A

visibility forecast

121
Q

for MOS, what is the OBV Row?

A

obstruction to vision (fog, haze, etc.)

122
Q

for MOS, what is the GFSX?

A
  • global model forecast
  • combines hourly forecast into 2 concise forecasts per day
  • wind direction is removed
  • timeframes are in 12 and 24 hour increments
123
Q

This general indicator of winter precipitation is a measure of the 1000-500mb thickness.

A

540 Line

124
Q

This type of force can act to destabilize or ruin a lake effect snow event, but is crucial for supercell storms to form.

A

Directional Shear

125
Q

This type of force can enhance convergence on the lee side of the lake during a lake effect snow event, leading to a much stronger event.

A

Friction/Orographic forcing

126
Q

What is supercooled water?

A

stays in liquid form, even below freezing temperatures

127
Q

This forecasting method is used when a changing weather variable will continue to change at a similar rate.

A

trending forecasting

128
Q

What is the National Weather Service statement?

A

“We will provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property, and the enhancement of the national economy.”

129
Q

How much time (generally) is covered by a MOS forecast product?

A

3 days

130
Q

What input on the OBV row would be used if sand was obstructing the view near the tower?

A

BL

131
Q

What force is not considered when evaluating for geostrophic flow aloft?

A

friction

132
Q

What type of vorticity occurs in the right exit region of a jet streak?

A

Cyclonic / Positive Vorticity

133
Q

This trough orientation can signify the beginning or the end of a Mid-Latitude Cyclone.

A

positive

134
Q

This type of environment is associated with uniform temperature distribution, with atmospheric features remaining fairly static.

A

barotropic

135
Q

These types of clouds can form as a result of weak/positive vertical velocities in conjunction with high relative humidity values.

A

status clouds

136
Q

This forecasting method involves the use of computer forecasts and models, including PoP forecasts.

A

Probability/Statistical method

137
Q

This forecast model is the only model that operates on the global scale.

A

Global Forecast System

138
Q

This weather forecast model is generally better at forecasting along coastal areas, and does worse comparatively in areas of topographic features.

A

Global Forecast System

139
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is CL?

A

no clouds

140
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is FW?

A

1/8-2/8 cover

141
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is SC?

A

3/8-1/2 cover

142
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is BK?

A

5/8-7/8 cover

143
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is OV?

A

8/8 full cover

144
Q

what do you look for at the 250/300mb level?

A
  • jet stream (Rossby waves)
  • jet streaks
145
Q

what is looked for at the 500mb level?

A

vorticity (specifically the advection)

146
Q

what to look for at the 700mb level?

A
  • shortwave vs longwave
  • vertical velocity
  • RH and dewpoint depressions
147
Q

what to look for at the 850mb level?

A
  • temperature advection
  • low level jet (LLJ)
148
Q

what does the 850mb level represent?

A

the top (or near the top) of the Planetary Boundary Level (PBL)

149
Q

what become better defined at the 850mb level?

A

surface high/low pressure centers

150
Q

Draw the jet streak diagram.

A

ok

151
Q

Draw the sea breeze diagram.

A

ok

152
Q

Draw the land breeze diagram.

A

ok

GEOG 3040 (1 decks)

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