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GEOG 3040 > final 12/13 > Flashcards

final 12/13 Flashcards

1
Q

What are the 3 main ingredients for severe weather?

A
  • instability
  • moisture
  • lifting mechanism
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2
Q

What does CAPE stand for?

A

Convective Available Potential Energy

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3
Q

How is CAPE measured?

A

J/kg

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4
Q

For CAPE, how is 500-1500 measured?

A

unstable

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5
Q

For CAPE, how is 1500-2500 measured?

A

very unstable

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6
Q

For CAPE, how is >2500 measured?

A

extremely unstable

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7
Q

What is the Lifted Index?

A

difference in temperature between environmental temperature and the parcel’s air temperature lifted adiabatically at 500 mb

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8
Q

What are the ranges for Lifted Index’s instability?

A

stable, unstable, very unstable

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9
Q

For LI, what is the range for stable?

A

> 0

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10
Q

For LI, what is the range for unstable?

A

0 > LI > -6

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11
Q

For LI, what is the range for very unstable?

A

< -6

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12
Q

How are environmental lapse rates used to qualitatively measure instability?

A

when the environmental lapse rate exceeds the DALR, the atmosphere is considered unstable

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13
Q

Be able to identify Absolutely Stable on a Skew T

A

ELR is to the right of the DALR and MALR

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14
Q

Be able to identify Conditionally Unstable on a Skew T

A

ELR is between the DALR and MALR

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15
Q

Be able to identify Absolutely Unstable on a Skew T

A

ELR is to the left of the DALR and MALR

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16
Q

What are the two types of shear?

A
  • speed shear
  • directional sheer
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17
Q

How does speed shear affect severe storms?

A
  • allows thunderstorms to tilt with height (separating downdrafts from updrafts)
  • crucial for tstorms to sustain themselves
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18
Q

How does directional shear affect severe storms?

A

allows updrafts to spin

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19
Q

What is the Bulk Richardson Number?

A

total amount of shear (kts) between two vertical levels

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20
Q

What is Effective Shear?

A

amount of shear that is able to rotate with an updraft

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21
Q

For Effective Shear, what is the range for weak shear?

A

0-20 kts

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22
Q

For Effective Shear, what is the range for moderate shear?

A

20-40 kts

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23
Q

For Effective Shear, what is the range for high shear?

A

40-60 kts

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24
Q

For Effective Shear, what is the range for extreme shear?

A

> 60 kts

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25
Q

What is Storm Relative Helicity?

A

amount of potential spin (m^2/s^2) between two levels relative to an updraft

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26
Q

For Storm Relative Helicity, what is the range for rotating drafts to be unlikely?

A

0-100 m^2/s^2

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27
Q

For Storm Relative Helicity, what is the range for rotation possible?

A

100-250 m^2/s^2

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28
Q

For Storm Relative Helicity, what is the range for rotation likely? (aka tornados)

A

250-400 m^2/s^2

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29
Q

For Storm Relative Helicity, what is the range for strong rotation likely w violent tornados?

A

> 400 m^2/s^2

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30
Q

What is the Hodograph?

A

plots the wind vectors with height on a Cartesian Coordinate System

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31
Q

What kind of hodograph is favorable for tornados?

A

a clockwise rotating hodograph

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32
Q

What are the four lifting mechanisms?

A
  • upper level divergence / PVA
  • cold fronts
  • warm fronts
  • outflow boundaries
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33
Q

What is upper level divergence / PVA?

A

cause surface pressure to decrease and promote upward vertical motions across that pressure gradient, lifting the parcel

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34
Q

What are cold fronts?

A
  • move very quickly, forcing air parcels to rise rapidly
  • occasionally produce supercells, more often squall lines
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35
Q

High instability + low shear = _______ ?

A

squall line

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36
Q

High instability + high shear = _______ ?

A

supercells and/or squall line

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37
Q

Low instability + high shear = _______ ?

A

weak supercells and line segments

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38
Q

What are warm fronts?

A
  • excellent at producing/maintaining supercells!
  • associated with strong inversions that need to be broken for T-storms to develop
  • low level shear is typically maximized along warm fronts
  • move slowly
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39
Q

What are dry lines?

A
  • marks the boundary between hot, dry air and warm, moist air
  • advance during the day, then retreat at night
  • an lead to convective initiation, which in turn can lead to storm development
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40
Q

What are outflow boundaries?

A
  • cold pools from previous convection, such as previous diurnal effects or ongoing storm effects
  • can serve as a mesoscale boundary promoting low level convergence
  • can create more tstorms
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41
Q

What are the 4 main types of storms?

A
  • ordinary tstorm
  • mesoscale convective system (multi-cell)
  • supercell
  • derecho
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42
Q

Discuss an ordinary t-storm.

A
  • most basic convective system
  • has 1 main updraft that is lost to a downdraft when precip starts
  • 30-50 minutes long
  • found in environments with weak vertical wind shear
  • very common on hot summer afternoons
  • rarely severe, but can have stronger winds from downbursts
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43
Q

Discuss a mesoscale convective system (aka squall line).

A
  • complex of organized single-cell storms
  • *** most common severe storm type
  • weak to moderate shear (usually just speed shear)
  • can produce severe wind/marginal hail
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44
Q

Discuss a supercell.

A
  • consists of a single, steadily rotating updraft
  • Mesocyclone!!
  • very organized internal structure.
  • can last for several hours.
  • very strong vertical wind shear (both speed and directional!)
  • can produce very large hail, damaging winds and most common producer of tornadoes!!
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45
Q

Discuss a derecho.

A
  • any family of downburst clusters that produce a widespread straight-line windstorm.
  • usually form with an extremely high instability and weak to moderate shear
  • NWS criteria - Severe wind gusts (greater than 57 mph) at most points along the storm path
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46
Q

How can you use shear/instability to differentiate between a supercell and a squall line on a Skew T?

A

look for strong vertical wind shear

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47
Q

What are the 4 main types of precipitation possible during the winter season?

A
  • rain
  • freezing rain
  • sleet
  • snow
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48
Q

What else is the “Rain/Snow line” called?

A

540 line

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49
Q

How can temperature advection effect precip type over time?

A
  • WAA at 850 mb ahead of a warm front can produce freezing rain conditions, as the surface will remain cold under the rising warm air
  • CAA can turn normal rain conditions to snow, freezing rain, or sleet depending on the structure of it’s advection
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50
Q

Be able to identify a precipitation type based on a given weather sounding.

A

just like midterm

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51
Q

What are Lake Effect Snow events?

A

localized, convective snow bands that occur in the lee of lakes when relatively cold air flows over warm water

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52
Q

When does Lake Effect Snow occur?

A

late fall/early winter months (November – January)

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53
Q

What are some important reasons that we forecast the weather?

A
  • Transportation
  • Trade
  • Resource Availability
  • Agriculture
  • Construction
  • Utility Response
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54
Q

What are the 3 main forecasting sectors?

A
  • broadcast
  • government
  • private
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55
Q

(BROADCAST) What are their major roles, and how do they differ?

A
  • share weather forecasts and related stories, as well as NWS advisories, watches and warnings
  • Radio, TV, Internet, Apps
  • mix between presentation and forecast information
  • can be ratings driven
  • funded by media corporations
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56
Q

(GOVERNMENT) What are their major roles, and how do they differ?

A
  • dissemination through NOAA Weather Radios, Internet, smartphone apps
  • hazardous weather events with watches/warnings, short- and long-range forecasts, weather briefings/discussions
  • branches: National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Climate Prediction Center, Military
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57
Q

(PRIVATE) What are their major roles, and how do they differ?

A
  • Forecast for businesses: utility companies, Renewable Energy Agencies, Insurance Companies, Agricultural Corporations
  • Could be its own forecasting business!
  • Makes use of apps: WeatherBug, AccuWeather, Weather Underground
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58
Q

What % confidence under 24 hrs?

A

80%< confidence

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59
Q

What are the 4 Forecasting Methods?

A
  • Method 1: Persistence / Trends
  • Method 2: Climatology
  • Method 3: Analog
  • Method 4: Numerical Weather Prediction (consensus)
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60
Q

Which two methods are most useful? During which type of scenarios are they most useful?

A
  • National Weather Prediction (PoP, models, numbers idk)
  • Analog (forecasting precip type and synoptic scale patterns)
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61
Q

What is NWP?

A

a set (huge, thousands) of mathematical equations that describe how pressure, temperature, moisture, air density, and wind will change over time

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62
Q

What does NWP stand for?

A

Numerical Weather Prediction

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63
Q

What are two major factors that influence the accuracy of a model?

A
  • the accuracy/quality of equations to predict atmospheric chaos
  • the accuracy/quality of the observations
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64
Q

What are the 3 main American forecast models?

A
  • Global Forecast System (GFS)
  • North American Mesoscale (NAM)
  • Rapid Refresh (RAP)
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65
Q

What are the strengths/weaknesses of the Global Forecast System?

A
  • strengths: synoptic weather pattern and long-term forecasting, maritime regions
  • weaknesses: topography worse than NAM, does not predict convection well
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66
Q

What is MOS?

A

a statistical model that combines the NWP data with other local variables and runs through a set of regression equations

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67
Q

What does MOS stand for?

A

Model Output Statistics

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68
Q

Be able to describe the differences and similarities between MOS and NWP.

A
  • NWP too simplified
  • MOS is NWP mixed with stats to make it harder, better, fast stronger (more accurate, detailed, and realistic)
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69
Q

What is the forecast funnel?

A

The Basic Breakdown you should follow when creating a forecast

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70
Q

Describe the Planetary Scale and what observations are taken with each.

A

Look at hemispheric (global) patterns and how they will affect your forecast

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71
Q

Why is the forecast funnel useful for forecasting?

A

helps streamline the thought process, and gives due consideration to the atmospheric dynamics

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72
Q

What type of Lake Effect Snow bands are there?

A
  • Wind Parallel Bands
  • Long-Lake axis parallel Bands
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73
Q

What ingredients are needed for Lake Effect Snow?

A

1) High/steep vertical temperature gradient
2) Unfrozen Lake
3) Large Fetch

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74
Q

What type of soundings produce rain?

A

all temps above freezing

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75
Q

What synoptic parameters can we look at to predict rain vs. snow?

A
  • temperature
  • humidity
  • dew point
  • fronts and/or low pressure systems
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76
Q

What are the typical characteristics with the upper levels of the atmosphere?

A
  • jet stream & jet streaks
  • vorticity & vorticity advection
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77
Q

How are these upper air observations taken? What products are useful in this analysis?

A
  • radiosondes
  • rawinsondes (wind speed and direction)
  • soundings (weather balloons)
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78
Q

What are the 5 standard levels of analysis?

A
  • 250mb
  • 300mb
  • 500mb
  • 700mb
  • 850mb
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79
Q

What is the Jet Stream? What are its characteristics?

A
  • high velocity river of low-density air that flows “completely” around the Earth at mid-latitudes
  • weakest in summer
  • strongest in winter
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80
Q

What can the Jet Stream provide in regards to our forecasts?

A
  • steers major weather features at all levels of the atmosphere!
  • a direct effect on atmospheric variables at every level down to the surface
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81
Q

What is Geostrophic flow? How does it relate to the Jet Stream?

A
  • flow is assumed to be parallel to Isohypses
  • steers major weather features at all levels of the atmosphere
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82
Q

Subgeostrophic flow?

A
  • occurs when the centrifugal force counters the PGF via the geostrophic balance model
  • winds are expected to be SLOWER than geostrophic speed
83
Q

What are the 2 main types of flow and their characteristics?

A
  • zonal (W to E)
  • meridonal (N to S)
84
Q

What is positive trough orientation?

A
  • produce the least amount of severe weather
  • just chillin’
85
Q

What is a Jet Streak?

A

localized regions of intense winds

86
Q

What can Jet Streaks signify in regards to a forecast?

A
  • areas of strong convergence and divergence
  • typically the primary weather makers in a trough
  • capable of amplifying/weakening troughs and ridges
87
Q

What is Vorticity?

A

the clockwise or counter-clockwise spin of the atmosphere in relation to a vertical axis

88
Q

What two types of vorticity do we observe? What do they mean for surface features?

A

positive (cyclonic) and negative (anticyclonic)

89
Q

How does vorticity relate to the Jet Stream Schematic?

A

vorticity (and also shear) is typically enhanced in the presence of jet streaks

90
Q

shortwave features?

A
  • a “kink” in the height contours is typically indicative of a shortwave flow pattern
  • usually great areas of temperature advection (especially with troughs/fronts)
91
Q

analyze Vertical Velocities.

A
  • Negative = Sinking Motion (Regions of surface CAA)
  • Positive = Upward Motion (Regions of surface WAA, low level convergence)
  • correlates with jet streaks and vorticity advection similar to upper levels
92
Q

analyze Dewpoint Depressions.

A
  • difference between the air temperature and dew point of an area (the smaller the value, the greater the RH)
  • can be indicative of instability
  • saturation of mid-levels
  • upward vertical motion + high RH (low DPD) = cumulus clouds
  • horizontal motion (limited vertical motion) + high RH (low DPD) = stratus clouds
93
Q

Discuss temperature advection and how it affects surface features.

A
  • regions where isotherms cut across isohypses
  • aka baroclinic environments
94
Q

Identify and discuss Low Level Jets and their role in Low Pressure development.

A
  • a channel of increased winds near the surface located in the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone (between a SE High and a NW low)
  • efficient in transporting warm, moist air northward
  • may also increase severe wx %
95
Q

Describe the Synoptic Scale and what observations are taken with each.

A

Looking more nationally, what systems may affect your forecast. “What is the problem of the day?”

96
Q

Describe the Mesoscale and what observations are taken with each.

A

Regionally, what features are going to effect the overall processes?

97
Q

Describe the Local Scale and what observations are taken with each.

A

How will terrain and other features influence my forecast?

98
Q

What are the strengths/weaknesses of North American Mesoscale?

A
  • strengths: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, good rep of topography
  • weaknesses: ??
99
Q

What are the strengths/weaknesses Rapid Refresh?

A
  • strengths: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, different parameterizations than NAM
  • weaknesses: ??
100
Q

how far out does the Global Forecast System forecast?

A

384 hours (16 days)

101
Q

what kind of grid spacing does the Global Forecast System have?

A

13x13 km (for first 10 days, 27km after that)

102
Q

how long does it take for the Global Forecast System to run?

A

four hours

103
Q

how far out does the North American Mesoscale forecast?

A

84 hours

104
Q

what grid spacing does the North American Mesoscale have?

A

12x12 km

105
Q

how long does it take for the North American Mesoscale to run?

A

2.5 hours

106
Q

how far out does the Rapid Refresh forecast?

A

18 hours

107
Q

how often does the Rapid Refresh run?

A

hourly

108
Q

what grid spacing does the Rapid Refresh have?

A

13x13 km

109
Q

how long does it take for the Rapid Refresh to run?

A

a little over an hour

110
Q

what is another version of the Rapid Refresh?

A

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

111
Q

Is the Global Forecast System hydrostatic or nonhydrostatic?

A

hydrostatic

112
Q

Is the Rapid Refresh hydrostatic or nonhydrostatic?

A

nonhydrostatic

113
Q

Is the North American Mesoscale hydrostatic or nonhydrostatic?

A

nonhydrostatic

114
Q

What is the cutoff time for the Global Forecast System?

A

2 hr 45 min

115
Q

What is the cutoff time for the Rapid Refresh?

A

1 hr

116
Q

What is the cutoff time for the North American Mesoscale?

A

1 hr 15 min

117
Q

Gridpoint architecture of Global Forecast System?

A

spectral

118
Q

Gridpoint architecture of Rapid Refresh?

A

finite difference

119
Q

Gridpoint architecture of North American Mesoscale?

A

finite difference

120
Q

Boundary conditions for North American Mesoscale?

A

lateral boundary conditions based on previous GFS runs

121
Q

Boundary conditions for Global Forecast System?

A

global = no boundaries

122
Q

Boundary conditions for Rapid Refresh?

A

lateral boundary conditions based on previous GFS runs

123
Q

What does ‘finite’ mean?

A

Solves basic equations for specific points

124
Q

What does ‘spectral’ mean?

A

Forecast changes of amplitude in waves

125
Q

What does ECMWF mean?

A

European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts

126
Q

How far out does the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts forecast?

A

240 hours (10 days)

127
Q

How often does the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts run?

A

twice a day (every 12 hrs)

128
Q

What is the top competitor of the Global Forecast System?

A

European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts

129
Q

for MOS, what is the DT Row?

A

tells you the day the model is looking at

130
Q

for MOS, what is the HR Row?

A

the hours in UTC that the model is forecasting for

131
Q

for MOS, what is the X/N Row?

A

max and min temperatures

132
Q

for MOS, what is the TMP Row?

A

surface temperature

133
Q

for MOS, what is the DPT Row?

A

dewpoint

134
Q

for MOS, what is the CLD Row?

A

cloud cover

135
Q

for MOS, what is the WDR Row?

A

wind direction

136
Q

for MOS, what is the WSP Row?

A

wind speed

137
Q

what unit is the wind speed in in a MOS?

A

knots

138
Q

for MOS, what is the P06 Row?

A

probability of precipitation during that 6 hour period

139
Q

for MOS, what is the P12 Row?

A

probabiluty of precip during that 12 hour period

140
Q

for MOS, what is the Q06 Row?

A

quantitative precip forecast (QPF) for liquid equilivient during that 6 hour period

141
Q

The GPF is based on an _______. (meaning 0 is nothing and 6 is the highest level)

A

intensity scale

142
Q

for MOS, what is the Q12 Row?

A

QPF precip amount for that 12 hour period

143
Q

for MOS, what is the T06 Row?

A

probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe storms during that 6 hour period

144
Q

for MOS, what is the T12 Row?

A

probability of thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms during that 12 hour period

145
Q

for MOS, what is the POZ/POS Row?

A
  • probability of freezing (POZ)
  • probability of snow (POS)
146
Q

for MOS, what is the TYP Row?

A

verbal representation of the predicted precip

147
Q

for MOS and the TYP Row, what does R represent?

A

rain

148
Q

for MOS and the TYP Row, what does S represent?

A

snow

149
Q

for MOS and the TYP Row, what does Z represent?

A

mixed

150
Q

for MOS, what is the SNW Row?

A

snowfall forecast for a 24-hour period

151
Q

for MOS, what is the CIG Row?

A

ceiling height forecast

152
Q

for MOS, what is the VIS Row?

A

visibility forecast

153
Q

for MOS, what is the OBV Row?

A

obstruction to vision (fog, haze, etc.)

154
Q

for MOS, what is the GFSX?

A
  • global model forecast
  • combines hourly forecast into 2 concise forecasts per day
  • wind direction is removed
  • timeframes are in 12 and 24 hour increments
155
Q

What is fetch?

A
  • the distance traveled by wind or waves across open water
  • typically need a fetch length greater than 160 km (~100 miles)
156
Q

What is neutral trough orientation?

A

( literally not talked abt so idk )

157
Q

What is negative trough orientation?

A
  • strong low pressure system (mature)
  • wind shear aids in the formation of supercell thunderstorms
158
Q

What does positive (cyclonic) vorticity mean for surface features?

A

rising air and falling geopotential heights

159
Q

What does negative (anticyclonic) vorticity mean for surface features?

A

sinking air and increasing geopotential heights

160
Q

longwave features?

A
  • typically >1000 km
  • warmer under ridges, cooler under troughs
  • pay attention to the axis of orientation (mostly for troughs)
  • tighter gradient, faster progress (typically W→E)
161
Q

what is Baroclinic?

A
  • a region with a distinct difference in air masses (a separation of warm/cold air)
  • surface frontal boundaries usually present (typically with troughs and developed low pressure systems)
  • will likely amplify the ridge/trough
162
Q

what is Barotropic?

A
  • a region of uniform temperature distribution
  • a lack of fronts
  • weather features remain fairly static (typically with ridges/zonal flow)
163
Q

What type of soundings produce freezing rain?

A

goes from freezing and then passes thru a “warm layer” before a light freezing again

164
Q

How does sleet form while looking at a sounding?

A

after falling through a shallow warm layer aloft and a deep freezing layer at the surface

165
Q

How does snow form when looking at a sounding?

A

the entirety of the atmosphere is below freezing

166
Q

what are Wind Parallel Bands?

A
  • occur across the shorter width of the lake
  • generally associated with strong surface winds and shear
167
Q

What are LLAP (Long-Lake axis parallel) Bands?

A
  • occur in the middle of the lake and stretch it’s length to the leeward shore
  • usually associated with the strongest LES events
168
Q

This general indicator of winter precipitation is a measure of the 1000-500mb thickness.

A

540 Line

169
Q

This type of force can act to destabilize or ruin a lake effect snow event, but is crucial for supercell storms to form.

A

Directional Shear

170
Q

This type of force can enhance convergence on the lee side of the lake during a lake effect snow event, leading to a much stronger event.

A

Friction/Orographic forcing

171
Q

What is supercooled water?

A

stays in liquid form, even below freezing temperatures

172
Q

This forecasting method is used when a changing weather variable will continue to change at a similar rate.

A

trending forecasting

173
Q

Supergeostrophic flow?

A
  • occurs when the centrifugal force enhances the PGF
  • winds are expected to be FASTER than geostrophic speed
174
Q

Where would you find Subgeostrophic flow when analyzing upper air maps?

A

troughs

175
Q

Where would you find Supergeostrophic flow when analyzing upper air maps?

A

ridges

176
Q

What is the National Weather Service statement?

A

“We will provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property, and the enhancement of the national economy.”

177
Q

How much time (generally) is covered by a MOS forecast product?

A

3 days

178
Q

What input on the OBV row would be used if sand was obstructing the view near the tower?

A

BL

179
Q

What force is not considered when evaluating for geostrophic flow aloft?

A

friction

180
Q

What type of vorticity occurs in the right exit region of a jet streak?

A

Cyclonic / Positive Vorticity

181
Q

This trough orientation can signify the beginning or the end of a Mid-Latitude Cyclone.

A

positive

182
Q

This type of environment is associated with uniform temperature distribution, with atmospheric features remaining fairly static.

A

barotropic

183
Q

These types of clouds can form as a result of weak/positive vertical velocities in conjunction with high relative humidity values.

A

status clouds

184
Q

This forecasting method involves the use of computer forecasts and models, including PoP forecasts.

A

Probability/Statistical method

185
Q

This forecast model is the only model that operates on the global scale.

A

Global Forecast System

186
Q

This weather forecast model is generally better at forecasting along coastal areas, and does worse comparatively in areas of topographic features.

A

Global Forecast System

187
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is CL?

A

no clouds

188
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is FW?

A

1/8-2/8 cover

189
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is SC?

A

3/8-1/2 cover

190
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is BK?

A

5/8-7/8 cover

191
Q

For MOS on the CLD row, what cover is OV?

A

8/8 full cover

192
Q

what do you look for at the 250/300mb level?

A
  • jet stream (Rossby waves)
  • jet streaks
193
Q

what is looked for at the 500mb level?

A

vorticity (specifically the advection)

194
Q

what to look for at the 700mb level?

A
  • shortwave vs longwave
  • vertical velocity
  • RH and dewpoint depressions
195
Q

what to look for at the 850mb level?

A
  • temperature advection
  • low level jet (LLJ)
196
Q

what does the 850mb level represent?

A

the top (or near the top) of the Planetary Boundary Level (PBL)

197
Q

what become better defined at the 850mb level?

A

surface high/low pressure centers

198
Q

What % confidence in 24 hrs?

A

75%-80% confidence

199
Q

What % confidence in 48 hrs?

A

50-75% confidence

200
Q

What % confidence in 72 hrs?

A

<50% confidence

201
Q

What % confidence in +72 hrs?

A

you’ll likely be wrong

202
Q

Draw the jet streak diagram.

A

ok

203
Q

Draw the sea breeze diagram.

A

ok

204
Q

Draw the land breeze diagram.

A

ok

GEOG 3040 (2 decks)

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